Travis Kelce has been picked as a fantasy football bust by The Score.
Kelce, who is TE5 according to his ADP at Fantasy Pros, has seen his production decline in recent years. He’s cruised through the regular season, preserving energy for the playoffs. It has worked wonders for the Kansas City Chiefs, but it has resulted in some underwhelming fantasy returns.
According to Fantasy Pros, this is the first year since 2018 that Kelce isn’t the top-drafted tight end. Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, and Sam LaPorta are getting drafted ahead of the future Hall of Famer, while he’s only one place above T.J. Hockenson overall.
The Score noted that Kelce’s 823 receiving yards are the fewest by any tight end to receive 130 or more targets since at least 1992. After posting 78.7 yards per game in 2022, Kelce dropped to 65.6 in 2023 and 51.4 in 2024. There’s no question he’s declining, but the severity of his decrease in production has been overlooked.
Other Chiefs Targets
Andy Reid has clearly accepted Kelce can’t do 17 full-throttle regular-season games and deliver in the playoffs anymore. The Chiefs have been managing his workload over the last couple of seasons, and he’s been able to step up when it matters most in the postseason.
Kansas City is still using Kelce as a decoy, with his offensive snap rate of 84% being his highest since 2020. He is going to be on the field for most of every game, but his targets could decrease further.
Since Patrick Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, Kelce’s lowest targets per game seasons are 2023 (8.07) and 2024 (8.31). It’s feasible that number drops below eight in 2025 with a healthy Rashee Rice potentially becoming Mahomes’ go-to target and Xavier Worthy set for a bigger role in his second year in the league.
How To Approach Kelce In Drafts
There should be no rush to draft Kelce just because Bowers and McBride might get taken in the top 30 overall picks. Fantasy players can bide their time, knowing that anyone taking Kelce in the top 50 picks is at risk of a massive overpay for a player in the twilight years of his NFL career.
There’s no reason for the Chiefs to increase Kelce’s workload when they have been successful in the regular season when he’s hovering around eight targets per game. While Rice and Worthy are healthy, Kansas City can afford to keep Kelce on ice for the playoffs.
That said, there comes a point in a draft where it would be silly to pass on a player of Kelce’s caliber. If he’s still on the board as the 85th pick approaches, it’s unlikely there will be a better player available. The most negative projection for Kelce’s fantasy production would still see him rank as TE8 at the worst, which makes him a value selection from the 90th overall pick onwards.
