Jamaica will likely move from the amber to the red list in this week’s review of the travel traffic light system, expected later today or tomorrow.
Data analyst Tim White, who has been watching case figures closely in holiday destinations across the world, tweeted:
“Jamaica‘s positive test rate today is 32.4% Yesterday it was even higher at 49%, but always higher on Sundays with reduced levels of testing. It’s really difficult to make a case for Jamaica avoiding red now.”
There are currently 60 countries on the red list. Anyone arriving in the UK from a red list country must quarantine in a designated hotel for 10 days, at a cost of £2,285 per solo traveller, with added charges for further passengers sharing a room.
Writing in a mega-thread of data analysis and traffic light predictions on Tuesday, White had better news for holidaymakers with their eye on Turkey.
“With Turkey’s increased vaccination rates, safety measures in resorts and now genomic sequencing,” he said, his prediction was that Turkey would move to amber.
Of the country’s allegedly flawed reporting of case numbers, he said:
“I can’t pretend I am a fan of Turkey’s reporting and I wish they would be honest about Covid deaths and rates, at least retrospectively like Peru. But to punish Turkey now when the UAE was removed from the red list when they make up their numbers, would be illogical and serve no purpose.”
This comes after the Turkish Embassy told Sky News that it ‘expects’ Turkey to come off the red list and on to amber in this week’s update.
Tim White reported that whether the country will stay on red or move to amber relies on when the Joint Biosecurity Committee (JBS), which advises the government on travel update changes, met before last weekend or early this week.
Cases were lower before the weekend, but have seen a small increase in the past couple of days.
“Just as all looked good, cases are rising again. Fingers crossed JBS committee reached its decision at the weekend ,” he added as a caveat to his amber list predictions.
White’s other predictions for countries that will move from red to amber were the Maldives and Oman.
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