The success of the UK’s vaccination programme means the number of countries on the travel ‘green list’ could be more than doubled without putting public health at risk.
A study carried out by Oxera and Edge Health for Manchester Airports Group shows that if case rates this summer are similar to last year, passengers could start travelling to more than 130 countries such as Spain, the United States, and Dubai.
The study looks at the risk of new infections from July and August 2020, when the travel corridor scheme allowed people to visit countries in which rates were below a certain threshold.
The Oxera and Edge Health modelling shows that because of the extent of the vaccination roll-out, travellers from the UK could now visit overseas destinations with virus prevalence rates three times higher than they were in 2020, without increasing the risk or putting pressure on the NHS.
This is because vaccinations increase immunity in the population, drastically reducing severe illness and also leading to a lower rate of transmission.
Michele Granatstein, partner at Oxera and Head of its Aviation practice, said: "The successful rollout of the UK’s vaccination programme, with 32 million people having received a first dose, is crucial to the safe re-opening of air travel.
"The vaccines’ role in significantly reducing not only the number of hospitalisations and Covid-19 deaths but transmission rates of the virus should give assurance that safe travel to international destinations is within reach.
"Given these promising results, the proposed green list countries could safely be extended this summer."
Charlie Cornish, group chief executive of Manchester Airports Group, added: "Throughout this pandemic, MAG and the wider travel industry has supported the need for strict measures to prevent the spread of the virus and respond to new variants.
"At the same time, the case for restarting international travel safely and at the earliest opportunity is clear.
"Hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions of pounds-worth of economic value hang in the balance, while families are desperate for a hard-earned holiday, or to be reunited with loved ones they have been separated from during the most challenging of years.
"This research is a hugely valuable contribution to the work of the Global Travel Taskforce and paves the way for overseas travel to resume as soon as possible."
