The recent decision by the ECDC to categorise Ireland as an 'orange list' country has been hailed as "really good news" that could allow for increased travel next summer.
Speaking on Newstalk, travel expert Eoghan Corry said airlines will be doing everything they can to increase passenger numbers and that next summer could see “one of the biggest seat sales in the history of aviation” as international travel begins to reopen.
After recently adopting the new traffic light system for international travel, Ireland has now moved from ‘Red’ to ‘Orange’ under the system, along with parts of Norway and Finland, Iceland, the Canary Islands and some of the Greek islands.
While Corry said the change “doesn’t mean an awful lot immediately," it is really good news because it should increase the number of options that Irish people have to choose from if they want a holiday over the next few months.
Specifically, Corry noted that Irish people will now not need to take a PCR COVID-19 test before travelling to the Canary Islands.
“That will be reviewed again on December 3rd and, if we are still in Orange and the Canary Islands are still in Orange, it could open up Christmas. It is not the end but, to paraphrase the great Sean O’Casey quote that was borrowed by Winston Churchill, it is the end of the beginning.”
Despite Ireland's inclusion on the 'orange list', Corry understands that there will be a reluctance from some to travel but said there will be plenty of deals on offer for those people that are willing to take the risk.
“We are going to face one of the biggest seat sales in the history of aviation because, to get people moving, Michael O’Leary only has one method,” he said.
When asked if the recent move to the 'orange list' was likelier to make people more inclined to travel, Corry said "not really, we can tell from the bookings that there isn't a hell of a lot of demand. Two things are happening. 1) The number of flights off the island are being reduced to a trickle. We're now down to about 100 flights a day off the island which would have been over 300.
"There are something like 20 flights out of Dublin Airport today, there would have been 100 in August. Traffic is down to a trickle with Ryanair operations in Shannon and Cork airports coming to a halt. The indications are that this will happen again after a brief respite over Christmas. Knock Airport is in the same situation."
Under the system, countries are designated ‘Red,’ ‘Orange’ or ‘Green’ depending on their COVID-19 rates and testing positivity. Passengers from Green regions can travel without restriction.
Each country has been asked to put in place its own system of restrictions for passengers travelling from Orange or Red regions.
Ireland currently requires people arriving from Orange countries to isolate on arrival – unless they take a COVID test and obtain a negative result in the three days before flying.
From November 29th, passengers arriving into Ireland from Red countries will be allowed to end their self-isolation after five days, provided they receive a negative test result.
Mr Corry said the fact there are Christmas Eve flights from Birmingham to Dublin currently available for less than €20 each way is indicative of the times we're living in.
"It shows that even without the restrictions and all that debate about travelling for Christmas that Leo Varadkar fired up last week, people are not booking and the big disconnection is with Poland where there are very, very few flights. They're a bit more expensive but they're not moving."
As for an overall prediction about what international travel will look like in the summer of 2021, Mr Corry thinks that it's going to be difficult to make long-term plans but he is optimistic that the Canary Island will remain as a safe option for holidaymakers.
"I think that what we'll see is Europe bouncing in and out of lockdown. Making a longterm plan is going to be difficult for an individual and for an airline. I do think that the Canary Islands - like us - have got the situation under control and are bringing their numbers way, way down. Their numbers are about a quarter of ours are and that's unlikely to change," he said.
