In normal times Scott Morrison and Jacinda Ardern save their verbal spats for things like deportations and passing the buck on suspected terrorists. But as Delta changes the world, it’s causing a trans-Tasman rift too, writes political editor Jo Moir.
Analysis: Early on in the global pandemic New Zealand and Australia were operating from a similar rule book.
Both nations adopted an elimination strategy of stamping out the virus and the success of that meant in April a trans-Tasman bubble was opened.
Australia first opened its borders to Kiwis, without any need to enter managed isolation, in October - six months before New Zealand reciprocated.
That all came to a crushing close last month when Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern suspended the bubble as Delta cases surged in Australian states, in particular New South Wales.
The suspension is until the end of September when Cabinet will again review the prevalence of Covid across the ditch.
Increasingly, signs from Ardern and Covid Response Minister Chris Hipkins are pointing to the suspension continuing until the end of the year, if not early next year.
New Zealand is now dealing with its own Delta outbreak – sourced from New South Wales but spread in the community after a returnee from Sydney arrived in managed isolation at the Crowne Plaza after the bubble had already been suspended.
While the country remains in Level 4 lockdown and Auckland is set to endure stricter measures for another fortnight yet, the Prime Minister and health experts are confident the outbreak can be contained and eliminated.
"New Zealand can't do that. They were following an elimination strategy. They're in lockdown." - Scott Morrison
The same can’t be said for New South Wales where cases have hit new daily records of more than 1000 in recent days.
Victoria is also battling a decent sized outbreak, which originated in New South Wales, and there is a split within the various Australian states as to the strategy for dealing Delta.
Last week Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison was frank about the future of Australia in a Delta environment.
"Any state and territory that thinks that somehow they can protect themselves from Covid with the Delta strain forever, that's just absurd," Morrison told the 9 News Breakfast show.
"New Zealand can't do that. They were following an elimination strategy. They're in lockdown.
"Covid is a new different world. We need to get out there and live in it. We can't stay in the cave, and we can get out of it safely," he said.
"If not at 70 or 80 per cent [vaccination coverage], then when?’’ Morrison said.
His comments come after Ardern has frequently referred to New South Wales – and more broadly, Australia - as the reason for the Government swiftly putting New Zealand into lockdown.
When asked why it was so necessary to jump straight to a Level Four lockdown when just one case of assumed Delta was in the community, she responded with one word, “Australia’’.
Ardern has also pointed the finger on where it came from.
“Our case has originated in Australia,’’ she said when confirming the likely index case was a Sydney returnee in managed isolation.
Opening back up
New Zealand and Australia have similar plans when it comes to reopening borders to the rest of the world, but Morrison has provided the public with vaccination targets of 70 and 80 per cent for different stages of the process.
Morrison believes Covid-19 can be managed like the flu when a vaccination target of 80 percent of adults is reached.
"We don't shut the country down for the flu ... that's what living with Covid looks like,’’ he said.
Morrison has drawn the vaccination line at 80 percent but New Zealanders don’t yet know what threshold, if any, the Government has set.
Government ministers and Director General of Health Doctor Ashley Bloomfield disagree with Morrison on that point, saying Covid-19 is a far greater risk to the population than the flu.
But the question is whether it's still dangerous when the rate of those fully vaccinated is much higher than the 20-odd percent that it is currently in New Zealand.
A big debate is to be had as to what point New Zealand opens up – given Ardern hasn’t set a vaccination target – and how much danger and risk is considered acceptable.
Morrison has drawn the vaccination line at 80 percent but New Zealanders don’t yet know what threshold, if any, the Government has set.
Elimination is still the strategy in New Zealand, particularly when vaccination is still so low.
Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson has insisted New Zealand’s strategy is the right one for now.
And given New Zealand still has a chance of containing and eliminating this latest outbreak then it makes sense to try – but the horse has already bolted in NSW.
While Robertson and Ardern both ignore Morrison’s latest comments for the most part, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a conversation to be had about elimination in the future.
Ardern has been clear nationwide lockdowns won’t be the ongoing strategy, but first the vaccination rates need to ramp up.
What the next piece of the puzzle looks like is still unclear.
In the meantime, Ardern and Morrison can continue their tit-for-tat because both countries are now in different positions thanks to Delta, or more importantly, the management of it.
Health experts are also weighing in on the Australian rhetoric, with Professor Sir David Skegg telling a select committee last week Morrison’s comments were “pretty inappropriate but very much stated in his own political context’’.
He went on to say Morrison had never supported elimination and it was state premiers who ensured the elimination strategy was effective.
“Right back in July 2020, he said it was impossible to achieve elimination, which obviously wasn’t true, and that trying to eliminate the virus was not the right strategy for Australia.
“And I’ve watched Mr Morrison’s press conferences over the months, and one thing I find really interesting; when New Zealand’s doing better than Australia, which has been a lot of the time, we may as well not exist. He never mentions New Zealand. In fact, he says no other country has done as well as Australia. But the minute we have a setback like this, we suddenly come into conversation,’’ he told the health select committee on Thursday.
Skegg says different Australian state premiers are maintaining their own borders and really “going against the idea that the whole country will live with Covid’’.
And that in itself could cause a constitutional issue for Morrison at some point, he says.
Ardern doesn’t have multiple state premiers or borders to deal with, but at some point, a national debate will need to be had.
If Skegg’s assessment of Morrison is correct, expect any pushback on where the Government sets the threshold for reopening, and any more outbreaks in-between, to feature prominently in future Australian interviews with their Prime Minister.
And at the very least, it raises serious questions over whether the trans-Tasman bubble is dead.
