Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) is entering the most lucrative stretch of its trading calendar, and historical data suggest it's a month investors can't afford to ignore.
From Nov. 15 to Dec. 15, Broadcom shares have delivered average returns of 8.9% over the past 16 years, according to Seasonax data.
Even more compelling, the stock delivered gains in 14 of those years — that's an 87.5% success rate.
This seasonal surge isn't a recent phenomenon. In 2023, the stock climbed 15.82% during this period. But 2024 marked a historic outlier: from Nov. 15 to Dec. 16, Broadcom skyrocketed 51.66%, its best seasonal gain on record in this data series.
"Broadcom experiences a particularly steep seasonal rise before the turn of the year, with the steepest seasonal increase occurring in the first half of December," said Dimitri Speck, founder and chief analyst at Seasonax.
| Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Profit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov 2009 | 1.15 | 15 Dec 2009 | 1.20 | +4.55% |
| 15 Nov 2010 | 1.80 | 15 Dec 2010 | 1.89 | +5.17% |
| 15 Nov 2011 | 2.39 | 15 Dec 2011 | 2.08 | -12.82% |
| 15 Nov 2012 | 2.37 | 17 Dec 2012 | 2.37 | -0.32% |
| 15 Nov 2013 | 3.36 | 16 Dec 2013 | 3.77 | +12.31% |
| 17 Nov 2014 | 6.77 | 15 Dec 2014 | 7.51 | +10.95% |
| 16 Nov 2015 | 9.41 | 15 Dec 2015 | 11.09 | +17.95% |
| 15 Nov 2016 | 13.05 | 15 Dec 2016 | 14.20 | +8.76% |
| 15 Nov 2017 | 21.22 | 15 Dec 2017 | 21.23 | +0.05% |
| 15 Nov 2018 | 19.42 | 17 Dec 2018 | 20.88 | +7.53% |
| 15 Nov 2019 | 26.70 | 16 Dec 2019 | 27.58 | +3.27% |
| 16 Nov 2020 | 34.04 | 15 Dec 2020 | 37.37 | +9.78% |
| 15 Nov 2021 | 52.18 | 15 Dec 2021 | 59.01 | +13.10% |
| 15 Nov 2022 | 49.82 | 15 Dec 2022 | 53.01 | +6.40% |
| 15 Nov 2023 | 95.13 | 15 Dec 2023 | 110.18 | +15.82% |
| 15 Nov 2024 | 163.24 | 16 Dec 2024 | 247.57 | +51.66% |
| Average: 8.94% |
What Drove 2024's Massive Surge?
The explosive rally in late 2024 came after Broadcom's fiscal fourth-quarter results beat expectations by a wide margin. On Dec. 11, 2024, the stock soared 24.4% in a single day — the largest daily percentage gain in its history.
Revenue for the fiscal year hit a record $51.6 billion, fueled by a 220% year-over-year jump in artificial intelligence-related income.
The company also raised its dividend by 11% to $0.59 per share for fiscal 2025 and issued a strong first-quarter outlook, setting the stage for the rally.
Can December Earnings Match The AI Momentum?
As the next earnings report approaches on Dec. 11, 2025, traders are eyeing Broadcom's recent history of post-earnings moves in this quarter:
- Dec. 11, 2024: +24.4%
- Dec. 11, 2023: +9.00%
- Dec. 9, 2022: +2.4%
- Dec. 10, 2021: +8.27%
- Dec. 11, 2020: -1.03%
In four of the past five years, the stock has rallied after fourth-quarter earnings.
As of Nov. 12, 2025, Broadcom has gained 53% year-to-date, outperforming Nvidia Corp.'s (NASDAQ:NVDA) 40% gain but lagging behind Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AMD) 114% surge.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SOXX) has returned 38% in the same period, putting Broadcom slightly ahead of the broader industry.
Quarterly earnings have played a key role in this year’s gains. The stock jumped 9.4% on Sept. 5 following third-quarter results, and surged 8.6% on March 7 after first-quarter numbers. The only adverse reaction came in June, when shares slipped 5% on second-quarter results.
Notably, Broadcom has beaten analyst earnings estimates every quarter since mid-2020, a streak that strengthens investor confidence ahead of December.
Is The Rally Already Priced In?
With a strong year-to-date gain and heightened expectations going into earnings, the question now is whether another December rally is in the cards — or if traders have already front-loaded the move.
Historically, Broadcom's seasonal strength has persisted even in strong up years.
While 2024 set a high bar, the combination of consistent earnings beats, rising AI tailwinds, and a reliable seasonal pattern keeps the odds in favor of another December push.
Now Read
Image: Shutterstock
