Judgement day is almost here with the start of the Tour de France just over a month away, and June brings with it the final approach to the biggest race of the season, be that in key form-marking races or at the last stints at altitude camp.
We last looked at how the key GC hopefuls were standing after Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico in March, but there's been lots of racing since then, at the Classics, spring stage races, and the Giro d'Italia, meaning it's the perfect time to reassess how the would-be protagonists are faring.
The leading favourites, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Giro winner Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) won't be changing position, and if anything, have only increased the gap from them to the rest with their impressive, dominant racing in the past two months.
But there is plenty of movement behind them, most notably upward from a certain teenager, Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM), but also in the wrong direction for Netcompany Ineos' GC leaders, who haven't had a strong build-up to the Barcelona Grand Départ.
With the prestigious Critérium du Dauphiné – now the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes – and Tour de Suisse to come in the next few weeks, we will get another look at most of the leading names for the Tour before July 4. But the picture of who will start the race for the yellow jersey in the best shape is beginning to become clearer by the week; here's our form-ranking of the favourites for the Tour de France, just over a month out.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
The last time we checked in with defending champion Tadej Pogačar's form for this ranking, he had only raced once at Strade Bianche. Since then, he's gone on to win three Monument Classics, including Milan-San Remo for the first time, and completely dominated his only stage race in 2026 at the Tour de Romandie, winning overall and on four of the six race days.
Since then, Pogačar has been spotted several times training up at altitude, as he continues to switch over from one-day mode back to his stage racing best, with the results of his tune-up at Sierra Nevada set to be seen in action fully for the first time at the Tour de Suisse from June 17.
Another completely dominant performance will be expected and wanted by him, especially after only beating Florian Lipowitz to the Romandie title by 42 seconds. It wouldn't be surprising to see him win all five stages in Switzerland, even with some flatter finishes, but the final big climbing day to Villars-sur-Ollon will be his last chance in a race to fully test his legs before the Tour.
Don't forget that he'll be chasing a record-equalling fifth title come the Grand Départ in Barcelona, to join a legendary group with Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, and Miguel Indurain. His closest rival has just impressed at his last race, so June will be key to ensuring he arrives at his absolute peak for the Tour. But that fifth crown, for the moment at least, still looks the most likely end result.
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease A Bike)
Jonas Vingegaard may have been fresh from his Paris-Nice the last time we updated his form ranking, but that was mostly about steadying the ship following his delayed start to the season due to illness and a bizarre training crash.
Three months, 28 race days, nine victories, and one Giro d'Italia title later, it wouldn't be unfair to have him sitting alongside Pogacar as the 1a and 1b favourites, based on current form anyway.
Realistically, because of Pogačar's dominance in the past two editions, that does keep him in the top spot, but Vingegaard is coming into this Tour with his best preparation since 2023 – when he last defeated the Slovenian to the yellow jersey.
The Giro looked relatively easy for the Dane, winning five stages, never looking like he was overly exerting himself or wasting energy, and with constant messaging from himself and the team that there is more performance to find before Barcelona.
A two-time Tour winner and now a winner of all three Grand Tours, Vingegaard's current form suggests another all-time close-fought battle could be imminent, and he's long said that when he does two GTs in the same season, it's the second one where he is better. It won't be long until we find out if the Giro-Tour double was the correct path for Vingegaard, but he's on the right track for now.
Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM)
The biggest mover on this list since mid-March is 19-year-old Paul Seixas, who had just finished Strade Bianche in second behind Pogačar the last time we revisited this ranking, but back then, it wasn't even certain that he was going to be on the start line.
He went on to completely destroy the opposition at Itzulia Basque Country, win La Flèche Wallonne on debut, and then push Pogačar further than anyone has in recent years at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, living with his brutal attacks up La Redoute, before finally succumbing to the pressure up the Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons.
It was a stunning performance, and one which contributed heavily to Decathlon announcing that he would indeed be making his debut in July, where the weight of a nation will surely be on him as France's best hope.
Seixas is already in the conversation for the podium – unheard of for a rider so young, especially considering who he will be up against – and has been ramping up his training at altitude in preparation for the Grand Départ.
Just over two weeks in Sierra Nevada saw him rack up almost 50,000m of elevation gain and a 230km ride in training, before which he headed to the Pyrenees to recon stage 6 of the Tour, a tough mountain day which includes the Col du Tourmalet.
While impressive, he needs to put that work into practice if he's really going to send a warning to Pogačar and Vingegaard, and he'll have the chance to do that from Sunday, June 7, at the renamed Critérium du Dauphiné, where he will be the favourite to win on GC.
For Seixas to prove that he has a chance of living with the big guns in July, he needs to win overall and put in quite the duo of performances on stage 7 to the Grand Colombier and the eighth queen stage to Plateau de Solaison.
Remco Evenepoel & Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe may be home to the last two third-place finishers at the Tour behind Pogačar and Vingegaard, with Remco Evenepoel and Florian Lipowitz, but it's only fair to say the gap from them to the two leaders has only grown as the 2026 season has gone on.
Both were present at the Volta a Catalunya at the end of March, where they were no match for Vingegaard. Lipowitz finished third overall there, 1:30 down on the Dane, while Evenepoel was further away in fifth by the end, 2:13 down, with Lenny Martinez beating them both.
It was supposed to be the chance to bounce back for Evenepoel after a disappointing UAE Tour, but he was still majorly lacking on the big climbs. What he did after that was put together an impressive Classics campaign, taking third at Flanders on debut, winning the Amstel Gold Race, and taking third at Liège, but at the two Monuments there, he was a level below Pogačar.
The rest of his planned racing before the Tour was removed in favour of a long, tailored block of training at altitude, so his form will be somewhat of an unknown when he arrives at the first stage in Barcelona, but Red Bull will be desperately hoping they figured out whatever was wrong with his climbing shape back in spring.
Lipowitz, on the other hand, has been more consistent than his Belgian co-leader, taking second behind Seixas overall in the Basque Country, and then finishing runner-up to Pogačar in Romandie, suggesting he – while being a peg below some riders – is still right up there in the fight for the Tour podium.
Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek)
Not many riders with two DNFs in their past two races could demand to be this high up in a Tour de France ranking, but when the two riders below him also didn't finish their last appearances, it's understandable.
Juan Ayuso started 2026 with a bang on his new team, Lidl-Trek, winning the Volta ao Algarve against stiff opposition from Seixas, João Almeida, and Oscar Onley, a win which has become better with hindsight.
The young Spaniard may have been forced out of Paris-Nice and Itzulia Basque Country due to a crash and then illness, but what Seixas has shown consistently since then proves that Ayuso had to have been at a very high level to beat him, even in February.
Perhaps the best thing incoming for Aysuo, who has been training in Sierra Nevada in recent weeks, is that he will have another chance to test himself against the 19-year-old star before the Tour, at the Dauphiné.
It's a real chance to lay down a marker and move himself up this list of favourites, but also an opportunity to get back on track with Lidl-Trek, before he leads their GC ambitions in July. Even being close to the Frenchman would place him right back in the conversation for the podium.
Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
If Isaac del Toro were a leader on another team, then he would certainly be higher up this list, given his results in 2026, but as a domestique for Pogačar, that instantly drops him down, with the knowledge that he won't be able to chase his own ambitions on all of the big mountain days.
The last time we did the rankings, he was rightly sat in third, behind his teammate and Vingegaard, having just well-beaten his rivals at Tirreno-Adriatico and the UAE Tour, but a nasty injury does leave question marks over his form heading into his debut Tour.
Del Toro was due for a showdown in the Basque Country with Seixas and Ayuso after those races, but crashed out, sustaining a right thigh muscle tear and several related abrasions in the process, which kept him out of the Ardennes Classics.
He has been training at altitude since returning from injury, and will lead UAE's ambitions at the Dauphiné. It should bring that planned face-off between some of the peloton's young stars, albeit two months later than expected, but if Del Toro is able to beat the Frenchman and his former teammate, it could bump them down this list and him closer to his GC leader, Pogačar.
Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility)
Still one of the most underrated GC riders in the peloton, Tobias Halland Johannessen has only kicked on in 2026 after finishing sixth overall at last year's Tour de France, racking up an impressive set of results since we last ranked the contenders.
Having already finished on the podium of Tirreno-Adriatico, he was high up on our list of names, but that consistency continued with another third-place finish in the Basque Country, where he was racing top opposition in Seixas and Lipowitz.
While still a ways from the Frenchman by the finish, he wasn't far off beating Lipowitz, jumping up eight spots with a stunning ride on the final stage. But he also maintained this level across his one-day calendar too, finishing second at Milano-Torino and ninth at Liège.
Uno-X Mobility have really impressed in what is their first season in the WorldTour, and Johannessen has played a major role in that. But he's coming towards his biggest goal at the Tour now, and will once again do his final build-up at the Dauphiné. He was fifth at the prestigious one-week race a year ago, behind only the big names, so a similar performance would see him start in July as a big contender for the top five.
Another top 10 or higher finish at the Tour in July should not be that much of a surprise, as the former Tour de l'Avenir winner continues to reach closer to his full potential at 26.
Oscar Onley & Kévin Vauquelin (Ineos Grenadiers)
When Netcompany Ineos signed two riders who finished in the top 10 of the 2025 Tour de France for the 2026 season, they would have been hoping to at least replicate those positions, if not improve them, closer to the podium.
As the season has gone on, the two riders they brought in, Oscar Onley and Kévin Vauquelin, have struggled to make much of an impact. They were fourth and fifth in the Algarve in a positive start to 2026, but it's mostly been downhill since then, with Vauquelin finishing 10th in the Basque Country since we last ranked them, and well off the pace in the Ardennes Classics, which should be some of his top races.
Similarly, Onley has struggled on the British team, taking 12th overall in Catalunya and then pulling out of Romandie due to a stomach bug. The latter prompted an emotional response from the Scot, saying on his Instagram that it's "been a tough start to the season to be honest and hard not to feel like I've let a lot of people down after all the time and investment from everyone at Ineos Grenadiers."
Both will be back in action this Sunday at the Dauphiné, where they will desperately be seeking a top result to jump them back up the form ranking ahead of the Grand Départ.
Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious)
Any other rider with the palmarès Lenny Martinez has notched up this season would likely be a shoo-in contender for the Tour, but he's said on several occasions that it's stage wins he'll be after, not wanting to be put into the GC rider box.
Having been fifth at Paris-Nice when we last ranked the big names, Martinez went on to finish second at the Volta a Catalunya, losing out only to Vingegaard and beating both Lipowitz and Evenepoel, then took third at Romandie, behind Pogačar and the star German.
At 22, Martinez is quickly developing into a top stage race rider and will have a lot of home pressure as a top French rider taken away by the presence of Seixas, which could allow him to thrive in the melting pot which is the Tour de France.
He'll have another chance to take on Pogačar over hilly terrain at the Tour de Suisse from June 17, where he will race alongside Antonio Tiberi, who is likely to be Bahrain Victorious' GC leader on Tour debut.
There's a world in which Martinez focuses fully on GC and secures the top 10 he looks capable of, but that may become the fate of Tiberi, while the young Frenchman chases mountain stages from the breakaway.
Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5)
Tom Pidcock's 2026 season has been up and down to say the least, with his victory at Milan-Torino and second-place finish behind Pogačar at Milan-San Remo being followed up by a horror crash into a ravine at the Volta a Catalunya.
Although he escaped luckily without serious injury, damage to his knee kept him away from the races for a month before he returned at the Tour of the Alps with a stage win.
He wasn't able to compete for GC, though, still needing to build up his climbing level in preparation for the Tour, and he was unable to impress at Liège so soon after his injury.
Pidcock's third place from the Vuelta last season is what got him onto this list in the first place, the best GC result of his career, and in Pinarello Q36.5's debut at the Tour, and his return to the race and Alpe d'Huez – where he won a stage at the 2022 Tour – it is the overall classification he will be chasing.
He's another rider set to compete against Pogačar at the Tour de Suisse, and should be well-suited to the undulating stages, but it's a top GC result he will surely be chasing to prove he's back on track ahead of the Grand Départ.
Other contenders
Of course, way more than 10 riders will be targeting the GC in France this July, and there are a lot of riders in the GC picture who could move up our rankings depending on their performances at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Tour de Suisse.
If João Almeida does start the Tour after missing out on starting the Giro, there will be another UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider likely to finish in the top 10. He's been runner-up at the Giro and Vuelta, but also fourth at the Tour in the past, so he has proved he can score a top result even as one of Pogačar's domestiques.
Cian Uijtdebroeks moved to Movistar for the express reason of better Grand Tour leadership opportunities, and he's being launched straight into it with the Tour this year. It will be a big test for him, and although he's been on the way up, he also has his fair share of bad luck and setbacks, so he'll mainly be looking at a clear run rather than a top result, for the moment.
French fans will be mainly looking at Seixas and Martinez, but the usual suspects of David Gaudu and Guillaume Martin (both Groupama-FDJ United) will both be hoping to make it into the top 15 or so, plus keep an eye on Jordan Jegat (TotalEnergies), who ghosted into 10th last year.
Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) will return to the Tour after his stage win, stint in yellow and ninth overall in 2025, though replicating a top 10 on GC seems like a big ask for the Irish rider. The more likely option for EF is Richard Carapaz, who had to refocus on the Tour after his Giro preparation was cancelled due to recovery from surgery to remove a cyst.
Other teams with multiple GC riders could see teammates of their main leader sneak into the top 10, notably Matteo Jorgenson for Visma-Lease a Bike, and Mattias Skjelmose for Lidl-Trek.
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