The second week of the Tour de France concluded with a hilly, transitional stage 15 ahead of an Alpine showdown in the final, decisive week.
Tadej Pogacar took a commanding lead of almost four and a half minutes over Jonas Vingegaard into today’s run from Muret to Carcassonne after eking out a few more seconds on the finish line of stage 14, after Thymen Arensman took the victory for Ineos with a long solo attack.
It was a solo attack which decided stage 15 too: Pogacar’s domestique Tim Wellens, the Belgian national champion, was given the day off from team duties and escaped into a strong breakaway group which was slowly whittled down over the course of a chaotic day’s racing.
The route features three categorised climbs but it was on the last, unclassified climb, the Col de Fontbruno, when Wellens accelerated away from his companions - and proved impossible to bring back.
Follow all the action on stage 15 of the Tour de France below:
Tour de France stage 15 LIVE
- Sprinters and breakaway specialists set for tussle en route to Carcassonne
- Tim Wellens wins stage 15 with canny solo attack
- Race travels east ahead of Alpine GC showdown next week
- Tadej Pogacar leads general classification standings after barnstorming three stages in Pyrenees
- Stage 15 | 169km from Muret to Carcassonne | Live on TNT Sports and ITV4
'Beyond happiness' - Tadej Pogacar
16:48 , Flo Clifford“I’m more happy for him than when I win - beyond happiness,” Tadej Pogacar grins when asked by ITV4’s Matt Rendell about Tim Wellens’ win.
“Normally the Tour second week is easier mountains, more for breakaways, the third week is always hardest. But this week was one of the hardest second weeks of the Tours that I’ve ridden,” - “because of you!” Rendell says, at which he laughs. “Just on the terrain and everything. We still have big, big mountains to come. There’s still seven days or something to Paris and we need to fight until the end.”
'I was so happy I forgot to celebrate' - Tim Wellens
16:41 , Flo CliffordLet’s hear from a very happy Tim Wellens. “It is a very special victory. Everybody knows the Tour de France but not many people win in the Tour de France so it was very beautiful.
“I felt super good today. On the last climb of the day I felt really good. I knew the others felt really good but I knew I had to go solo. At the top of the climb I found my moment and I felt I had the legs to keep it to the end.
“I knew I had to enjoy the moment and kept riding until the end so I had a big gap to enjoy it and maybe put my bike in the air after the finish - but I was so happy I forgot to do it!”
'We are super proud of Julian' - Raphael Meyer
16:34 , Flo CliffordTudor Pro Cycling boss Raphael Meyer has a word with ITV about Alaphilippe’s misfortune: “He had a lot of pain when he crashed, the shoulder was popping out so the race doctor could put it back in.” He will undergo X-rays to discover what the problem is.
“Incredible peformance, the stage was full on. The radio was broken, it didn’t work after the crash,” he explains of the finish, looking pretty crestfallen himself but trying to look at the positives. “That’s the sport, that’s the beauty of cycling. Third after fearing the worst, we are super proud of Julian.”
'If one rider deserves victory it is Tim' - Gianetti
16:28 , Flo CliffordUAE Team Emirates-XRG team principal Mauro Gianetti has a chat with media after the race: “If there is one rider in the Tour de France who deserves a victory it is Tim Wellens. He is so dedicated to the team, dedicated to Tadej, always five centimetres from Tadej, in training camp, in race, in morale, in everything.
“Today he was in the break without looking to be in it. He was in a position to not work in the first 50km when it was very hard, the energy he saved in the first part of the breakaway he gave in the final. It was clever, like always, attacking just before the long descent. When he was away the others behind started looking at each other. Another fantastic day for the team and especially for Tim.”
Alaphilippe celebrates too late
16:23 , Flo CliffordAn unfortunate moment for Julian Alaphilippe, who celebrated with real vigour when he won the sprint... for third. It appears he didn’t know there were riders up the road. Oops.
Tim Wellens wins stage 15
16:16 , Flo Clifford“Is he looking fabulous?” Pogacar says over the radio, to which UAE say, “he’s looking perfect”. Some nice cheerleading from the team there.
Wellens rode an incredibly clever race: not contributing, surfing the wheel, attacking when the break was already suffering from the toughest climb of the day, and getting the crucial gap over the top of the unclassified Col de Fontbruno.
Stage 15 results
16:12 , Flo Clifford- Tim Wellens (UAE Team Emirates - XRG) in 3:34:09
- Victor Campenaerts (Visma - Lease a Bike) +1:28
- Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor Pro Cycling) +1:36
- Wout van Aert (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)
- Axel Laurance (Ineos Grenadiers)
- Aleksandr Vlasov (Red Bull-BORA-Hansgrohe)
- Paul Penhoet (Groupama FDJ)
- Jordan Jegat (TotalEnergies)
- Michael Valgren (EF Education-EasyPost)
- Valentin Madouas (Groupama FDJ), all at same time
Tim Wellens wins stage 15
16:05 , Flo CliffordWellens wins, Campenaerts takes second, and Carlos Rodriguez leads this enormous group - swollen by the addition of Wout van Aert’s group - into the final kilometre.
And Alaphilippe beats Van Aert in the sprint for third! The Frenchman punches the air as if he’s won, and I really hope he’s aware that Wellens in fact has taken the honour today.
Tim Wellens wins stage 15!
16:03 , Flo CliffordThe Belgian national champ high-fives spectators lining the road in Carcassonne, waves, and sits up to celebrate as he crosses the line. The biggest win of the 34-year-old’s life.
Behind him, Victor Campenaerts has broken free of his companions, and it looks like it’ll be a Belgian one-two!
Into the final 3km
16:00 , Flo Clifford2.5km to go: Tim Wellens grins and fist pumps at the camera; he knows he’s safe, with a 1’50” lead and only Carlos Rodriguez driving the chase group, eking out as much of an advantage as he can on GC.
The Wout van Aert group is bearing down on the chase group now, only a handful of seconds away, and that complicates the battle for second place considerably.
Wout van Aert attacks
15:54 , Flo Clifford8.5km to go: In the third group of the road, Wout van Aert has attacked, but it looks like he’s left it rather late. He’s joined by Ivan Romeo.
They sit 2’12” behind, with the Rodriguez-Simmons group 1’40” back, so they might bridge across to the chasers but there’s no way they’re bringing back Wellens.
The peloton is more than seven minutes behind, so Rodriguez is at least improving his GC position as things stand.
Simmons attacks
15:47 , Flo Clifford14.7km to go: Simmons has launched from the chasing group - which now includes Carlos Rodriguez, who has bridged back across - but he’s being chased down.
All of these attacks and lulls are only going to help Wellens, who leads by 1’26” at this point.
Wellens riding away to stage win
15:42 , Flo Clifford27km to go: Wellens “looks fabulous”, team leader Pogacar enthuses over UAE team radio.
Wellens does indeed: he’s dragged out this gap over the chasing group to 55 seconds and counting now, and is flying down this descent at around 80km/h. He’s being aided by the fact that none of the pursuers are working well together, all afraid of being countered and expending more energy than the rest.
EF pulling in the bunch
15:35 , Flo Clifford33km to go: Six minutes down the road from the break, EF Education-EasyPost have moved onto the front, upping the pace from UAE’s rather sedate one. They’re protecting Ben Healy’s ninth place on GC, with some assistance from Uno X-Mobility, who are riding for eighth-placed Tobias Halland Johannessen. The pair are under threat from 10th-placed Carlos Rodriguez further up the road.
Mohoric, from the early break, is hoovered up by the bunch. It’s a shame he couldn’t hold on, because he’s a brilliant descender and could have really done something on this long descent to Carcassonne.
Van der Poel group dropped
15:27 , Flo Clifford43km to go: Van der Poel has sat up, accompanied by Jake Stewart and a Picnic PostNL rider. The trio are five minutes back and likely to soon be swallowed by the yellow jersey group.
It’s been a very successful day out for Van der Poel, though; riding really hard on the front to form a breakaway in the early stages, distancing Jonathan Milan in the process, then winning the intermediate sprint in the absence of the green jersey - and that’s helped him jump up the standings and put pressure on Milan.
If the Dutchman intends to win the points classification, this is how he’s going to have to do it.
Wellens attacks
15:21 , Flo Clifford42km to go: Wellens has been a passenger in this breakaway all day, much to the frustration of Simmons in particular, and now the Belgian launches as the riders attack the Col de Fontbruno.
He’s got a fight on his hands though; Barguil tries to chase but almost explodes in the process, then Simmons takes it up, and Wellens has got a seven-second gap now as he heads onto the descent. Well timed.
Sparring in the leading group
15:14 , Flo Clifford47km to go: The yellow jersey group is now six minutes back, with UAE setting a less blistering tempo now and happy to let the stage win go up the road.
Warren Barguil bridges across to the group of Vlasov, Rodriguez, and Lutsenko, and they’re only 20 seconds back now on the leading quartet.
The Simmons-Storer-Campenaerts-Wellens group is dissolving into infighting now, which is contributing to that disappearing time gap. Simmons in particular is not happy with the Belgians’ sandbagging.
Storer takes KOM points
15:06 , Flo Clifford52km to go: With a little over 1km to go Campenaerts and Wellens bridge across to Storer and Simmons, and those are the strongest four riders, you would think.
Storer launches again, aware that he’s in trouble against these three if it comes down to a sprint on the flat. The Australian powers up these 10% gradients through gritted teeth - but Simmons is right behind him. There’s no descent now, just another 11km (!) of uncategorised climbing up the Col de Fontbruno.
Lutsenko, Rodriguez and Vlasov are a litle further behind, with Powless and Barguil behind them.
Onto the Pas du Sant
14:58 , Flo Clifford54km to go: Vlasov and Barguil get on fairly easily, helped by the front group starting to slow down, all wary of each other as the climb looms up ahead.
Mohoric is the first to attack, immediately shut down, and now Rodriguez - one of the purest climbers of this group - attacks himself. Neither rider can get clear as they now reach the foot of the climb.
Storer - the other best climber - now goes, with Simmons latching onto him. Behind them, Campenaerts - on some of his best form - is time-trialling his way up this climb along with Wellens; off the back, Leknessund and Mohoric have been swept up by the Jegat group, 35” back or so. Splits all over the place.
Attacks in the front
14:52 , Flo Clifford56km to go: Leknessund has bridged across to the front group to bring their number to nine. This group is nearly onto the Pas du Sant, the toughest climb of the day.
From the chasing group, Aleksandr Vlasov has counter-attacked and French veteran Warren Barguil has immediately jumped onto his wheel. They’ve got 15 seconds to make up.
The chasing group has fractured as more riders try to come across, including Jordan Jegat.
State of play
14:42 , Flo Clifford64km to go: The peloton sits 2’45” behind the leading group of eight riders, with an enormous 25-rider group chasing around 40” back, including Wout van Aert, Axel Laurance, Julian Alaphilippe - who, happily, doesn’t seem too hurt by that early crash - and Mathieu van der Poel.
French TV has designated this the ‘Group Jegat’, after Jordan Jegat, who has been almost entirely anonymous during this race but sits 11th overall, and has managed to sneak into this one.
The eight-rider leading group consists of Victor Campenaerts, Carlos Rodriguez, Quinn Simmons - complete with attacking manbun - Tim Wellens, Neilson Powless, Michael Storer, Alexey Lutsenko, and Matej Mohoric.
Marooned somewhere between the Wout van Aert group and the breakaway, Andreas Leknessund is all alone.
Oscar Onley still in peloton
14:35 , Flo Clifford71km to go: Turns out that graphic indicating Oscar Onley was in the chase group was incorrrect; the Picnic PostNL rider is safely in the peloton. It did seem odd that UAE would let the rider sitting fourth overall get up the road, even if he is nearly 10 minutes back on Pogacar.
UAE have taken things up at the front and it looks like they’re trying to get things under control and prevent any more attacks after a really frantic first two hours of racing.
'Most important thing' to enjoy racing - Van der Poel
14:28 , Flo CliffordTNT Sports had a chat with Mathieu van der Poel at the start of today’s proceedings. “I think everybody suffered yesterday, also with the weather conditions, at a certain point it was really cold,” the Dutchman says. “I think not a lot of riders enjoyed the stage yesterday.
Asked about today’s route suiting him, he says, “I think so but also for Kaden [Groves] he feels better and better, but everybody knows it’s really difficult to get into the right breakaway in the Tour, especially today when the whole bunch knows it’s a big possibility for the breakaway to go for the stage win. The first job is to try to be there.
“It’s the most important thing,” he agrees when Matt Stephens comments on how he seems to be racing with a smile on his face at the moment.
Vingegaard has a bike change
14:22 , Flo CliffordLutsenko picks up some more KOM points at the top of the Col de Soreze, with the breakaway rolling over it in fairly relaxed fashion. Wellens takes second place on the line.
Carlos Rodriguez has bridged across to this front group now.
Vingegaard has just had a bike change but he’s back in the bunch now and blows a kiss to the camera, along with a thumbs up, to indicate all is well.
Lutsenko wins first KOM
14:12 , Flo Clifford86km to go: Alexey Lutsenko takes the KOM points on the Cote de Saint-Ferreol, the day’s opening climb: blink and you miss it stuff, as it’s over in 1.7km.
The riders are now onto the second climb, the Cote de Soreze: 6.2km at an average of 5.5%.
The breakaway has splintered, reformed, and splintered again, with a 43” lead over a large chasing group including GC riders Carlos Rodriguez and Oscar Onley!
The peloton is 1’05” back, and it’s very unlikely to be a sprint day now with the green jersey group nearly five seconds off the pace.
Mark Cavendish in Carcassonne
14:02 , Flo CliffordThe Manx Missile - who seems to be spending his first Tour de France since retirement gallivanting around the race - has a chat at the start line. He has fond memories of Carcassonne: “This is when I matched the record, got my 34th. It’s an uphill sprint, it’s a very, very hard finish.
“You’re likely to see a very different finish today, it’s not the same direction into Carcassonne and it’s with some very tough climbs. This part of France is very hot,” he notes, adding the riders will need to fuel and cool themselves properly, “you might see some very tired legs at the end of the day.”
CAV 🤝 @AbraJonas
— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) July 20, 2025
36 stage wins on the video 😌#TDF2025 pic.twitter.com/vCJATonmrT
'Campenaerts is making me crazy' - Wout van Aert
13:56 , Flo CliffordTNT Sports has a chat with a relaxed-sounding Wout van Aert, whose aero helmet seems a telltale sign that he fancies getting in the break today. “Victor Campenaerts is making me crazy this Tour, I’m riding with nose strips, TT helmet, I started to believe I need all the gains to be up there so let’s give it a try,” he jokes.
Asked whether the team is targeting stage wins more now that the GC is looking relatively sewn up, he says “That’s been always the goal for us from the beginning of the Tour, of course with Jonas on GC it’s not as easy to make it into breakaways, but the position we are in now in GC, on a day like today it’s not much to win or lose for Jonas, so a few of us have the opportunity to go for it.
“I feel quite good, obviously I took it a bit easier the last few days in the mountains, so I hope it pays today.”
Aero helmet for 🇧🇪 @WoutvanAert today 👀 wonder what the plan is...
— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) July 20, 2025
Casque aéro pour 🇧🇪 @WoutvanAert aujourd'hui 👀 on se demande ce qui est prévu...#TDF2025 pic.twitter.com/NNcfiCXIZR
'I'll try to defend green' - Jonathan Milan
13:48 , Flo CliffordEurosport had a chat beforehand with the green jersey of Jonathan Milan, whose lead over Tadej Pogacar in the points classification is narrower than he would like, at 28 points. Van der Poel is looming too, 41 points back now.
“I’m feeling good, a bit tired after yesterday of course, but happy how it’s going,” the Italian says. “I was thinking I’d have a bit more of an advantage but this is cycling, this is racing. I’ll try to defend it as much as I can.
“It’s really difficult to control it, I think, we’re seeing a lot of fights for the break. We’ll see how it will go, I will try maybe to jump in [a breakaway]. For sure we are trying to get as many points as we can.”
Van der Poel wins ntermediate sprint
13:40 , Flo Clifford110km to go: The average speed for that first hour of racing was a whopping 52.2km/h. Blistering stuff.
The breakaway have too much of a lead to be caught now before the intermediate sprint at Saint-Felix-Lauragais, but Axel Laurance is trying, jumping off the front of the peloton. This was once a category-four climb but it’s now a sprint point, and Mathieu van der Poel - having done an enormous turn on the front - is more or less uncontested.
He takes the 20 points, and the fight for the green jersey is on! Milan, who leads the standings, is being spat out the back on this climb and Thibau Nys drops back to help him.
Breakaway with 45 seconds
13:33 , Flo Clifford114km to go: Ineos are hauling the peloton along at speed trying to bridge to this breakaway.
Kevin Vauquelin has had a mechanical, and no sooner has the Frenchman come back on to the bunch, he’s out the back again, along with sprinters Jonathan Milan and Tim Merlier.
They get back on, but with difficulty, and Lenny Martinez is out the back too, 1’30” off the pace.
Here’s the day’s break as it stands (they’ve only got 45 seconds, so everything could change):
🏁 121 km
— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) July 20, 2025
1️⃣5️⃣ 🚴♂️ < 42" < 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️🚗
Breakaway of the day / L'échappée du jour ⬇️
🇧🇪 Victor Campenaerts
🇳🇱 @mathieuvdpoel
🇳🇱 @PascalEenkhoorn
🇧🇪 @Tim_Wellens
🇺🇸 Neilson Powless
🇧🇪 @WoutvanAert
🇰🇿 Alexey Lutsenko
🇩🇰 Tobias Lund Andresen
🇦🇺 Kaden Groves
🇫🇷 Clément Russo
🇸🇮… pic.twitter.com/jjvqM0zoom
Nils Politt wins teammate of the week award
13:28 , Flo CliffordNils Politt has won the award for best teammate of the second week’s racing. The German was certainly a fine support for Pogacar in the Pyrenees but I personally would have gone for EF Education-EasyPost’s Harry Sweeny, who was simply immense in hauling Ben Healy through a difficult day on stage 12.
Lenny Martinez, who took maximum points on the Tourmalet, Col d’Aspin, and was second over the Peyresourde, won the combativity award for yesterday’s stage, to go with his new lead in the KOM classification. He now owns the jersey by right, having worn it on Pogacar’s behalf previously.
Weather check
13:23 , Flo CliffordHot temperatures, thunderstorms, the possibility of hail... stage 15 has it all.
The temperatures are relatively warm (27°C) at the start in Muret, with cloudy skies that will give way to sunshine... before, around 3 p.m. about at the time of the intermediate sprint in Saint-Félix-Lauragais (km 59.8), the riders may find themselves in the midst of a summer storm with the possibility of hail. Fortunately, the humidity will ease off at the entrance to the Montaigne Noire, and on leaving it, around 40 kilometres from the finish, the clouds will also disappear, giving way to sunshine that will push temperatures above 30ºC. What will remain constant is the wind, which will be moderate to strong and favourable for the riders.
Lipowitz and Vingegaard back on
13:18 , Flo Clifford128km to go: The other three jerseys have reunited with yellow and that’s one element of the chaos nullified as the peloton is all back together.
The front group has swollen to 15, including Belgian trio of Van Aert, Tim Wellens and Arnaud de Lie, with Biniam Girmay and Jonas Abrahamsen - stage 11 winner - among a trio of chasers trying to bridge across to them.
Competing interests
13:12 , Flo Clifford131km to go: This is a really fascinating race situation. Perhaps as a return favour after his GC rivals waited for him in the final kilometres after his stage 11 crash, Pogacar is trying to neutralise the infernal pace at the front of the bunch - but there are attacks flying off this yellow jersey group all over the place, and there are three Visma riders in the front group, so Visma are both trying to attack and, much further back, trying to shepherd Vingegaard back onto the main group.
Vingegaard, Lipowitz, Martinez and Milan are around 40 seconds off the front of the race and bit by bit are coming onto the yellow jersey group, 35 seconds back from this breakaway.
“Pogacar, fair play, he is trying to calm down everyone to let us come back to the bunch,” the Red Bull radio tells its riders.
Split in the bunch
13:06 , Flo Clifford137km to go: Powless has been brought back by a Van der Poel-led group but there’s chaos on the road as the bunch has split in the aftermath of that crash.
Pogacar and UAE are on the right side of it, with Van der Poel, while Vingegaard, Lipowitz and Martinez are on the wrong side. Lipowitz has been brought back on by teammates Jordi Meeus and Gianni Moscon.
UAE have given the order to Pogacar to slow the front group down to allow his rivals back on, but they’re still 50 seconds off the pace. Everyone involved in the crash has got back up, per the Tour’s official race centre.
There’s a nine-man group hanging a few seconds off the front of the bunch, containing Van der Poel.
Key moments of today's stage
13:00 , Flo CliffordToday is a real transitional stage, no more gruesome gradients in the Pyrenees, but more of the punchy climbing of the opening week.
The climbs are:
- cat-three Cote de Saint-Ferreol (7% for 1.7km)
- cat-three Cote de Soreze (5.5% for 6.2km)
- cat-two Pas de Sant (10.2% for 2.9km)
After the Pas de Sant the climbing actually continue on the uncategorised Col de Fontbruno, which precedes a 40km descent into Carcassonne.
The day’s intermediate sprint comes before any of the climbing, 59.8km into racing at Saint-Felix-Lauragais.
Van der Poel, Alaphilippe targeting breakaway
12:54 , Flo CliffordAs per the official Tour de France Twitter feed, Mathieu van der Poel and Julian Alaphilippe (my pick for the day) have both laid their cards out, targeting the day’s break. “The profile suits me and I hope to be out in front,” the Frenchman says.
Unfortunately Alaphilippe has just crashed and looks the worst for wear of the riders down in that crash. He’s back and riding, and has had some painkillers from the medical car.
🗣️ "The profile suits me and I hope to be out in front. It should be full gas until the sprint." - @alafpolak1 🇫🇷#TDF2025 pic.twitter.com/DH7l2reP1l
— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) July 20, 2025
Alaphilippe crashes
12:49 , Flo CliffordBehind, there’s been a crash at the entry to a bridge, bringing down several Red Bull-Bora riders, and Julian Alaphilippe is down clutching his shoulder.
Florian Lipowitz has been caught up too but he’s back on his bike and riding away, guarded by two teammates as they bring him back onto the bunch.
Neilson Powless alone out front
12:40 , Flo Clifford159km to go: Still very early days, but Neilson Powless has a half a minute lead over the peloton after a little over 10km.
There are still plenty of moves behind, however.
Jorgenson, Abrahamsen attack
12:35 , Flo Clifford162km to go: It’s frenetic from the gun. Stage 11’s intrepid breakaway duo of Mauro Schmid and Jonas Abrahamsen - who attacked from the gun in Toulouse and contested the stage win - are among the first to go.
Visma-Lease a Bike’s Matteo Jorgenson, no longer a GC threat after a disappointing sojourn in the Pyrenees, also has a go. The American is now 32 minutes down overall and Visma’s two-pronged strategy has fallen apart entirely, so stage wins are the target now.
The peloton is all strung out. Neilson Powless now hops off the front.
Flag drop
12:30 , Flo CliffordAway we go on stage 15! 169km from Muret to Carcassonne, with the destiny of the stage win - breakaway or sprint finish? - hanging in the balance.
Neutralised start
12:25 , Flo CliffordThe riders have rolled out for the neutralised start, a short 3.4km in Muret before the flag drop, expected to be in around five minutes.
☀️ Bonjour Muret #TDF2025 pic.twitter.com/wVHgj2Gkmq
— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) July 20, 2025
Tour de France 2025 stage-by-stage guide: Route maps and profiles for all 21 days
12:18 , Flo CliffordToday marks the end of the Tour’s second week - a rare five-day working week for the riders after 10 days racing back-to-back before the first rest day.
Here’s what’s coming up for the riders after tomorrow’s second rest day. They’ve certainly earned it after slogging through the Pyrenees - but that can only mean one thing: the Alps are coming...
Lennert van Eetvelt abandons
12:11 , Flo CliffordBad news for Lotto and their Belgian star Lennert van Eetvelt, who has decided to abandon the race.
The 24-year-old crashed on stage two and hasn’t looked at his best. He set off at a blistering pace on stage 13’s time trial but faded and ultimately finished 47th, and he really didn’t look happy as he crossed the line, perhaps aware that his time was nearly up.
🇫🇷 #TDF2025
— Lotto Cycling Team (@lottocycling_) July 20, 2025
Injury update on @LennertVEetvelt ❤️🩹 pic.twitter.com/jTIds0oWTy
Stage 15 prediction
12:04 , Flo CliffordToday’s stage could favour literally anyone. Successful breakaways have been few and far between this Tour and as such I’m leaning towards a puncheur making a dramatic escape and holding off the sprinters’ teams... but hedging my bets.
Mathieu van der Poel has been a stalwart of breakaways so far and may fancy another crack today; likewise Wout van Aert, with a rest day to recover ahead of his Alpine duties for team leader Jonas Vingegaard.
But I’m going with Julian Alaphilippe; his climbing legs haven’t been so great in this race but he’s a demon descender and could build his lead on the hair-raising downhill into Carcassonne. Alaphilippe’s Tudor stablemate Marc Hirschi has looked off the boil for much of this Tour but could do something today too; likewise Bruno Armirail, another Frenchman who’s in sparkling form and who built up an astonishing lead over his former breakaway companions on the descent of the Col du Soulor on stage 12.
If it does come down to a sprint, Tim Merlier has had the beating of green jersey Jonathan Milan in their two duels so far, with Milan’s only stage victory coming on stage eight when the European champion was distanced following a late mechanical.
What is cycling’s new yellow card system?
11:57 , Flo CliffordIneos Grenadiers fell foul of cycling’s relatively new yellow card system yesterday for knocking over a spectator with the team’s support car.
Cycling’s governing body, the Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI), recently introduced a new yellow card system to crack down on reckless or dangerous behaviour in races.
The system was trialled last season and has been integrated at World Tour (the top level) and Pro level races throughout this season, with the 2025 Tour the first to see it in action.
Here’s how it works:
Ineos apologise after hitting spectator with support car during Tour de France
11:50 , Flo CliffordIneos Grenadiers have apologised after the team’s support car knocked down a spectator during stage 14 of the Tour de France.
The car was in pursuit of its Dutch rider and eventual stage winner Thymen Arensman on the Col de Peyresourde, one of four major climbs during Saturday’s stage 14 in the Pyrenees.
The car appeared to be passing a motorbike as it took a wide line on the road before hitting a fan who had been filming the riders as they passed, knocking them to the floor.
The race jury later said Ineos Grenadiers sports director Oliver Cookson was fined 5,000 Swiss francs (£4,300) for "improper behaviour endangering spectators" and handed a yellow card. Accumulating yellow cards over a defined period of time results in a suspension.
Ineos apologise after hitting spectator with car during Tour de France
Ineos Grenadiers save their Tour de France with stage win
11:43 , Flo CliffordIneos Grenadiers have been pretty anonymous in this Tour so far, with a couple of speculative breakaway attempts not coming to much. Arensman has been their brightest star, coming second to Simon Yates on stage 10 from a breakaway of climbers, and now winning only his fourth stage victory as a professional - and what a way to do it.
“I can't really believe it,” said Arensman. “Going to my first Tour, I just wanted to experience everything.
“I had to be really patient the first week because it was really punchy until the mountains. Then the first opportunity I got I was second on stage 10. It was already an amazing experience on my first Tour but this is unbelievable.”
Stage 14 report
11:37 , Flo CliffordThymen Arensman of Ineos Grenadiers won stage 14 of the Tour de France after a stunning solo attack timed to perfection on a rainy, foggy183km mountain route between Pau and Superbagneres.
Tadej Pogacar retained the leader’s yellow jersey as he took second place by beating chief rival Jonas Vingegaard, in a two-man sprint finish 1min 12sec behind Dutch rider Arensman.
Defending champion Pogacar extended his lead over Dane Vingegaard in the general classification by six seconds to 4min 13sec at the end of the Pyrenean stage.
The day belonged to Arensman, however, as the Dutchman went solo from the day's breakaway in the penultimate climb to the Col de Peyresourde (7.1 km at 7.8%) before his team car hit and knocked down a spectator amid the usual roadside chaos on the Tour.
Thymen Arensman delivers Tour de France relief for Ineos as Tadej Pogacar grows lead
General classification after stage 14
11:30 , Flo Clifford- Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates - XRG) in 50:40:28
- Jonas Vingegaard (Visma - Lease a Bike) +4:13
- Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-Hansgrohe) +7:53
- Oscar Onley (Picnic PostNL) +9:18
- Kevin Vauquelin (Arkea - B&B Hotels) +10:21
- Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-Hansgrohe) +10:34
- Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) +12:00
- Tobias Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility) +12:33
- Ben Healy (EF Education - EasyPost) +18:41
- Carlos Rodriguez (Ineos Grenadiers) +22:57
Stage 14 results
11:23 , Flo Clifford1. Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers) 4hr 53min 35sec
2. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates - XRG) +1:08
3. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma - Lease a Bike) +1:12
4. Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) +1:19
5. Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-Hansgrohe) +1:25
6. Oscar Onley (Picnic PostNL) +2:09
7. Ben Healy (EF Education - EasyPost) +2:46
8. Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-Hansgrohe) +2:46
9. Tobias Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility) +2:59
10. Kevin Vauquelin (Arkea - B&B Hotels) +3:08
A day off for Pogacar?
11:16 , Flo CliffordWith Pogacar rampaging through the Pyrenees, winning atop Hautacam on stage 12, then demolishing the field in the time trial on stage 13, and adding six seconds to his lead over Jonas Vingegaard atop Superbagneres on stage 14, the destiny of the Tour de France title is looking fairly well sewn up.
But there are plenty more individual victories to fight for and today, with its final descent and flat run-in to the line, is unlikely to be one the marauding Slovenian has an eye on.
Stage 15 start time
11:12 , Flo CliffordToday’s stage has a more standard start time after yesterday’s early rise: 1.20pm local time, 12.20pm BST, with an expected finish of 5.10pm local time (4.10pm BST).
Stage 15 route map and profile
11:08 , Flo Clifford
Stage 15 preview
11:04 , Flo CliffordToday’s stage is a 169km run from Muret to Carcassonne covering some bumpy terrain, so this will be a real test of recovery after the previous three days.
There are three categorised climbs to get over in a lumpy middle of the stage: the cat-three Cote de Saint-Ferreol, the cat-three Cote de Soreze, and the cat-two Pas de Sant. Saint-Ferreol sets the tone, short but sharp at 7% for 1.7km kilometres. The Soreze is longer at 6.2km, averaging 5.5%, but it’s the Pas de Sant that might spell doom for the sprinters: 2.9km at an average of 10.2%.
And there’s plenty more uncategorised climbing too - including the late climb up the Col de Fontbruno, which isn’t marked but follows immediately on from the categorised Pas du Sant. It sees the riders climb to 880m above sea level, before a long, broken-up, 40km into Carcassonne and a flat finish.
If the sprinters’ teams have their lead-out trains organised they could gather up any stragglers and make a late chase on that final descent and flat approach - but the likes of Mathieu van der Poel could foil them, with attacks likely to come all day and especially on the last categorised climb. Either way it should make for a fascinating day of racing.
Good morning
11:00 , Flo CliffordBonjour and welcome to The Independent’s live coverage of stage 15 of the Tour de France!
After a trio of exciting stages in the Pyrenees, the GC favourites get a bit of respite - and the sprinters will hope for glory in Carcassonne.
