Stage one, Saturday 26 June, Brest – Landerneau 197.8km
The Tour opens with a loop through France’s cycling heartland, home to heroes of the past such as the five-times winner Bernard Hinault, and present-day aspirants such as Warren Barguil. A hilly route travels south to Quimper then returns north to finish close to the start, up a steep two-mile climb tailor made for France’s biggest current star, Julian Alaphilippe, who will be under intense pressure to deliver the stage win and yellow jersey. With more brief ascents approaching the finish crashes are inevitable as the field fights for position before the closing hill.
Stage two, Sunday 27 June, Perros-Guirec – Mûr-de-Bretagne 183.5km
More little climbs for a first reshuffle of the overall contenders. Again it’s Alaphilippe’s favoured terrain – another short, steeper ascent to the finish – but the Mur is tackled twice, the first time with 17km to go. Another favourite will be the Dutchman Mathieu van der Poel, cycling’s most exciting talent, who is making his Tour debut. The contest to be at the front for the climb is as daunting as the ascent itself; a crash or puncture will be costly. Earlier, the race visits Hinault’s old stamping ground of Saint-Brieuc, and the Badger would definitely have relished this finish.
Stage three, Monday 28 June, Lorient – Pontivy 182.9km
The first routine stage, with more nods to Brittany’s cycling past and present. The start close to Barguil’s home town of Hennebont will draw plenty of “Wawa” fans, and the route travels down the coast to Carnac of stone row fame, then passes Plumelec and the Cadoudal hill, a celebrated local race venue. A bunch sprint finish looks inevitable; Mark Cavendish returns to the Tour with Deceuninck-QuickStep after Sam Bennett was ruled out through injury, with Australia’s Caleb Ewan a big rival for stage wins and favourite for the green jersey.
Stage four, Tuesday 29 June, Redon – Fougères 150.4km
The race ventures towards Normandy but stops just short of the border at another town with cycling history, home of the late Albert Bouvet, the legendary “Bulldog”, who became a mainstay of the group that organises the Tour. By now the daily pattern will have been set: an early break of a handful of riders from the lesser French teams, scooped up in time for a bunch sprint finish. Along with Ewan, other favourites include the evergreen Peter Sagan, France’s Arnaud Démare, Tim Merlier of Belgium, the Norwegian Alexandr Kristoff and perhaps the Frenchman Nacer Bouhanni.
Stage five, Wednesday 30 June, individual time trial, Changé – Laval 27.2km
A first proper sort-out with a time trial long enough to create gaps but short enough that they shouldn’t be definitive. It’s a classic rolling course, climbing from the start and again towards the finish, an initial chance to assess 2021 winner Tadej Pogacar, runner-up Primoz Roglic, and 2018 winner Geraint Thomas, while short enough to suit Alaphilippe. It also suits specialists such as Belgian Victor Campenaerts and Swiss rider Stefan Küng. This stage is in the Mayenne, home turf of Küng’s FDJ manager Marc Madiot, so he knows what he has to do: win.
Stage six, Thursday 1 July, Tours – Châteauroux 160.6km
It’s 13 years since Cavendish won the first of his 30 Tour de France stage wins here and he will get the chance to add to his tally after he made Deceuninck’s Tour team following the injury to Bennett. The bunch sprint is inevitable, with the same cast as on previous days and by now it should be pretty clear who is on top. After three sprint stages in four days, however, it’s time for something different.
Stage seven, Friday 2 July, Vierzon – Le Creusot 249.1km
The longest stage of the race; stages over 240km were once relatively common but are now a rarity. The first 50km will be hectic, as every rider aiming to win a hilly stage will have this one on his list; the battle to get in the day’s break will be intense. In the final 50km there are two climbs long and hard enough to dislodge the sprinters; if Sagan has not won a stage so far, the chances are he and his Bora team will target this one and aim to bring the race together in the final hour.
Stage eight, Saturday 3 July, Oyonnax – Le Grand-Bornand 150.8km
After a transfer, it’s suddenly mountain time. It’s not the rudest of introductions but the Col de Romme-Col de Colombière diptych will whittle the main group down to 15 at best. The mountains jersey should change hands so there will be riders seeking out the early break to stake their claim on the polkadots. Expect a show of strength over the final climbs from a team looking to control the standings – Ineos most obviously, or Jumbo-Visma – and a stage win for a climber who can sprint such as Rigoberto Urán of Colombia or Tao Geoghegan Hart.
Stage nine, Sunday 4 July, Cluses – Tignes 144.9km
Unusually, this year the Tour bypasses the highest and most iconic Alpine passes, and today’s gloriously scenic Cormet de Roselend is about the best we will see of the massif. The long descents after the Col des Saisies and the Roselend will give weaker climbers a chance to get back to the front group before the final sort-out. The winner will probably come from an early move – the likes of Barguil or Nairo Quintana are obvious candidates – but the draggy Tignes finish climb will suit a rider like Alaphilippe or Thomas rather than a lighter pure climber. Then comes a rest day.
Stage 10, Tuesday 6 July, Albertville – Valence 190.7km
This might be more interesting than your average flat “transition” stage because there’s just enough climbing at key points to suggest that the sprint teams might not have it all their own way. If Sagan is feeling frisky he might try to burn off one or two of the heavier brethren, and if Ewan’s Lotto have lost riders who would normally work to control the stage, or if Deceuninck are marshalling Alaphilippe in the yellow jersey, the chances are a break will succeed with an opportunistic win for a rider like Thomas De Gendt or Søren Kragh Andersen.
Stage 11, Wednesday 7 July, Sorgues – Malaucène 198.9km
Given the reduced quota of climbing in the Alps, today’s unprecedented double ascent of the fearsome Mont Ventoux should be when a definitive picture emerges at the top of the classification. The second ascent of the “Giant of Provence” could do serious damage, particularly if the weather is hot. It’s a day for favourites like Pogacar, Roglic or Thomas to show what they have in the locker, but all eyes will be on Colombian Miguel Ángel López, winner of the Ventoux challenge in early June, posting the fastest time for the climb since 2004.
Stage 12, Thursday 8 July, Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux – Nîmes 159.4km
There are two scenarios for this run through the gorges of the Ardèche and the hills to the west of the Rhône. Either the race will follow the usual pattern of doomed breakaway, late catch, bunch sprint. Or the mistral will blow from somewhere between north-west and east and all hell will break loose late on as the bunch splinters in the wind. The former scenario favours the sprinters, the latter the strongest team in the race: Ineos or Deceuninck, with Sagan as a wild card. A windy day will offer Thomas or Alaphilippe the chance to gain time on the climbers.
Stage 13, Friday 9 July, Nîmes – Carcassonne 219.9km
The second longest stage of the race – and a rare day of over 200km – has a similar look to the previous one, with no major hills and roads that are innocuous enough in clement conditions but can be brutal in a cross wind. By this stage it should be clear who is the best sprinter and if Ewan is heading to achieve his 2021 target of winning stages in all three Grand Tours, also whether Sagan is en route to take a record eighth Tour green jersey or if he’s being threatened by an all-rounder such as Aussie Michael Matthews or Italian Sonny Colbrelli.
Stage 14, Saturday 10 July, Carcassonne – Quillan 183.7km
Only a few stages in this year’s Tour are hilly enough to deter the sprinters and favour the all-rounders as opposed to the pure mountain goats. This is the second, through Cathar country in the rarely visited eastern Pyrenees. Narrow, twisting roads and constant up and downs favour a breakaway, and the battle to be in it will be desperate as even after two weeks the majority of teams will have yet to win a stage. One for a rider like Olympic champion Greg Van Avermaet, Bauke Mollema or Simon Yates if they are not involved in the overall battle.
Stage 15, Sunday 11 July, Céret – Andorre-la-Vieille 191.3km
This stage is almost bound to see an early escape contest the finish, because although the late climb of the Port d’Envalira is the highest point on the Tour it’s not steep enough to cause huge damage, so any sparring for the overall standings will come within Andorra on the Col de Beixalis. The overall contenders should finish together unless anyone is having an off day; this is a good one for the stage hunters such as Yates or France’s David Gaudu, but also the best descenders such as Bahrain’s Matej Mohoric and old fox Vincenzo Nibali. There then follows a rest day.
Stage 16, Tuesday 13 July, Pas de la Case – Saint-Gaudens 169km
Five days of climbing in the Pyrenees is almost unprecedented for the Tour, and each is very different: today involves shorter, steep ascents, with the main sort-out likely to come on the Col de la Core before the final shootout on the Portet-d’Aspet. By this point in the race, each day’s breakaway will include many of the same riders, with teams getting increasingly panicked if they haven’t yet won a stage. The overall contenders will want this to be a controlled stage, but these roads are eminently suitable for skirmishing involving the likes of Alaphilippe or Daniel Martin of Ireland.
Stage 17, Wednesday 14 July, Muret – Sant-Lary-Soulan 178.4km
The first of two mountain-top finishes that should decide the race. There’s a lengthy, flattish preamble where a large break should gain several minutes – in recent years these have involved as many as 30 riders – while the final 50kms includes a daunting trio of passes, culminating in the hardest finish of the Tour, the super-steep 10 miles to the Col de Portet. López, Roglic and Pogacar will be the main men here, and the stage win should go to the best climber out of the break – a rider like Gaudu.
Stage 18, Thursday 15 July, Pau – Luz Ardiden 129.7km
Shorter and more straightforward than the previous day; the Col du Tourmalet is arguably the most iconic climb in the Pyrenees and Luz Ardiden one of the classic finishes. There is always room for a surprise attack but on paper, this stage should replicate the verdict of the previous day as it will favour exactly the same kind of rider. Again there should be a massive early escape involving climbers who are out of contention overall, but the brevity of the stage means they are liable to be scooped up late on leaving the stage win for whoever is in the yellow jersey.
Stage 19, Friday 16 July, Mourenx – Libourne 207km
The sprinters will have been attempting to survive for the last few days, with this stage and Sunday’s run in to Paris in their minds. That’s enough incentive for most of them but the outcome of the stage may depend on how many of their teammates have got through the mountains as well. Five successive mountain stages may see off more of the domestiques than usual, and it might see off sprinters who really can’t climb like Kristoff or Ewan. So it’s a day for perhaps a rider like Matthews or Colbrelli, who will deal with the mountains better than most.
Stage 20, Saturday 17 July, individual time trial, Libourne – Saint-Émilion 30.8km
This stage visits the village of Montagne, which will seem like a bad joke to the big-boned types who have grovelled through the Alps and Pyrenees. Since last year’s reversal at La Planche des Belles Filles the Tour has fallen back in love with time trials and this one is long enough to create a surprise or two. In theory the Tour will have gone through more than enough mountains since leaving Brittany to ensure that the strongest climber has ample margin to relax on this stage. But that’s far from certain – and therein lies the great fascination of this race.
Stage 21, Sunday 18 July, Chatou – Paris Champs-Élysées 108.4km
The traditional apotheosis. The Tour organisers have meddled with the sprint format only once since first finishing on the Champs in 1975. However, the other Grand Tours have always experimented with time trials on the last day and perhaps it’s time the biggest race of all tried something different. The club run pace start, the champagne drinking en route and the final dash up Paris’s grandest avenue does have a slightly hackneyed feel. Love it or not, it’s still a fantastic sprint.
