Alberto Contador
Strengths Experience and attitude. Contador probably does not have the pure climbing ability of the others but he has a peerless record at three-week stage races, knowing just how to manage his effort day by day and just when to make a move. He has an almost quixotic attitude to racing, preferring to try to die in the attempt rather than opting for safety – so he will seize any opening, anywhere, any time
Weaknesses His age – 32 – is not on his side but the thorn in his flesh may be his team, who overreached themselves early in the Giro, then went missing. The question is whether they can handle the first nine stages and how they will hold up at the team time trial (stage nine). Dropping time there will put him on the back foot
Target stages The tricky descent into Gap (stage 16) and the day over the Glandon and Montvernier to Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne (stage 18) suit Contador’s talent for springing a surprise. The point is, however, he can do it almost anywhere with a hill
Prediction Fifth
Chris Froome
Strengths On paper, the volume of climbing favours him more than Contador or Nibali. In 2013 Froome was ahead of Quintana going uphill; from the way he raced the Dauphiné he should be at his best at the Tour, the question is how much the Colombian has improved. Another plus is his Sky team, who can be expected to perform on the flat stages, deliver a strong team time trial and have strong mountain men: Geraint Thomas, Peter Kennaugh, Richie Porte, Leopold Konig, Wout Poels
Weaknesses Froome was on the back foot with an ill-timed puncture on day one in 2012, lost time in crosswinds on 2013 and crashed out in 2014. His poor bike handling and lack of race sense could let him down in a first week as demanding as this one
Target stages The summits at La Pierre-Saint-Martin (stage 10) and Plateau de Beille (stage 12) fit Sky’s predilection for structured uphill racing and their liking for seizing control of events early on. Failing which, La Toussuire (stage 19) is another option
Prediction Third
Vincenzo Nibali
Strengths The 2014 winner is a fine climber, if not quite at the level of Froome or Quintana, and tactically astute but his true forte is in gaining the psychological advantage early on – as he did last year at Sheffield and then over the cobbles three days later. The soaking wet cobbled stage where he gained so much on Contador and the others, however, was probably a one-off, or so most of the riders will be hoping
Weaknesses His Astana squad may be a little slower in the team time trial and is not the best for the flat finishes, where he may have to look after himself. Given Froome and Quintana’s obvious climbing strength – and their teams’ relative climbing ability - they will look to dislodge him on the steeper mountain finishes; if he survives those, he will be in the running
Target stages Nibali will look for openings on all the mountain stages but he discomfited his rivals early on in 2014, so could well make his mark at Huy (stage three) or Cambrai (stage four)
Prediction Second
Thibaut Pinot
Strengths Pinot is improving markedly and the route this year is tailored for him with an almost total lack of time trialling, and a heavy final week. He can climb well, is utterly tenacious and his motivation will know no bounds
Weaknesses He’s French and the weight of history is on his shoulders. French Tour contenders are often overcome by the sheer hype. This year, Pinot has mainly shone outside his home turf, which is no coincidence. The pressure will be on from the off and could tell in a brutal first week: last year he lost two minutes on the cobbles; this year he kept dropping seconds in tricky finishes at the Tour of Switzerland; finally his FDJ team have no pedigree at team time trials and a couple of minutes lost there would be devastating
Target stages Pinot is a rider who comes good in the final week of the Tour, as he did last year and in 2012, so he will be worth watching anywhere between Pra Loup (stage 17) and l’Alpe d’Huez (stage 20)
Prediction Fourth
Nairo Quintana
Strengths Quintana’s superlative climbing means, given the volume of mountains in the second half of the Tour, he needs only to reach day nine in one piece and within a couple of minutes of the other leaders; he also has that impenetrable calm that enabled Miguel Indurain to keep his head while the sky was falling in. Movistar are a strong and experienced outfit, if not quite as heavyweight as Team Sky; they should do the job in the team time trial – assuming they are there at close to full strength
Weaknesses Historically, Colombians struggle in the Tour’s first week. The question may be less whether Quintana can survive the riskiest days but if he can handle the cumulative effect of constantly varying day-to-day demands: crosswinds, cobbles, crashes and so on
Target stages Anywhere the road goes uphill steeply but if his team protect him well he could shine early on at La Pierre-Saint-Martin (stage 10), while l’Alpe d’Huez (stage 20) is a short, brutal stage made for a Colombian climber
Prediction Winner
