It is never too early for a mock draft.
Of course, mock drafts in August always seem a bit early, given that we have an entire college football season ahead of us and we often see dramatic rises from players, such as Mitchell Trubisky a few seasons ago and Joe Burrow just last year. In the midst of a global pandemic? It seems even earlier, as who knows what the college football landscape will really look like over the next few months?
Assuming we get college football, mock drafts at this point in the calendar are a great reference. A watch list of sorts, outlining players that you should keep your eyes on once the games kick off. The selections can also be used to highlight perceived weaknesses on NFL rosters as training camps open, and by the time the NFL season kicks off, those weaknesses might already be addressed via late free agent movement or even a trade or two. So, take these all with a grain of salt and use them to cultivate your own watch lists over the next few weeks.
A word about the draft order. It was generated using the Super Bowl odds for each team as currently listed by BetMGM, which you can view here. In the case of ties, those were broken by their current ranking on Touchdown Wire’s Power Rankings. In addition, a special situation unfolded as the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs currently have the best Super Bowl odds. Since they cannot play in the big game, the Ravens were slid down and the NFC team with the best odds was slid up. Completely scientific as you can see…
Now, the selections in Touchdown Wire’s “way too early” 2021 mock draft:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Washington Football Team have the longest odds to reach Super Bowl LV, and due to their lower position on the most recent Touchdown Wire Power Rankings, Jacksonville is on the clock.
That leads us to Trevor Lawrence. The Clemson quarterback remains at the top of many quarterback boards heading into the 2020 season – although not all – but he has the perfect blend of traits for the modern game. You could see Lawrence running a timing and rhythm passing game like New England’s, you could see him running a boot-action based system like Minnesota’s or Cleveland’s, or you could even drop him into Baltimore’s offense and se him use his legs, which are a weapon in their own right.
Jacksonville is rolling with Gardner Minshew for the season ahead, but if they end up wit the first overall selection, odds are they’ll look to lock down a premier talent at the game’s most important position.
2. Washington Football Team: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
When discussing Lawrence it was noted that he might not be the top quarterback on everyone’s board. That is due to the rise of Justin Fields. In the wake of Dwayne Haskins moving to the NFL, the transfer from Georgia stepped into the starting lineup for the Ohio State Buckeyes and dazzled.
What might make Fields so intriguing as a prospect is his baseball background. We are seeing a generation of new passers such as Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray transition into the league with such a past, and that enables them to make throws from any base, from any arm angle and from the most crowded of pockets. Fields is the same, and he can generate velocity on his throws necessary to challenge the tightest of windows even when under fierce pressure in the pocket. Should Washington falter, Fields would be a great addition.
3. Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Quarterbacks often get pushed up boards artificially due to positional value, but there is a chance that Sewell is the best overall player in this draft class. Matt Miller, who covers the NFL Draft for Bleacher Report, stated in a recent mock draft of Sewell that his “…2019 tape showed no weaknesses. If he continues to play at that clip in 2020, he’ll be a lock to be the first overall pick if a team without a need at quarterback selects in this spot.”
Cincinnati, with the addition of Joe Burrow, has some weapons at the skill positions on the offensive side of the football. Entering 2020 however, there are questions about the offensive line. They hope to get a full season from 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams at the left offensive tackle spot, but you need two good tackles in today’s game, and adding Sewell to the mix would be a great way to tap into the potential of Burrow and this offense.
4. Carolina Panthers: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Lots of early mock drafts have the Carolina Panthers looking to the quarterback position here, perhaps with Fields or North Dakota State passer Trey Lance. But the bet here is on Teddy Bridgewater, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady putting him in a position to be successful in 2020, allowing the Panthers to look elsewhere at the top of the 2021 NFL Draft.
Passing on LSU wideout Ja’Marr Chase might be tough for Brady, but the team has needs elsewhere, including in the secondary. There are potential names to consider at this position including Patrick Surtain II from Alabama and Tyson Campbell from Georgia, yet Farley is the selection at this spot. His medical history might be a concern, as he has a non-contact ACL tear from 2017 that cost him a season. However, Farley is the type of coverage CB that defensive coordinators covet, especially given his press coverage skills.
5. Miami Dolphins: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
The Miami Dolphins had a great off-season, both in free agency and the draft. Yet oddsmakers think the team is probably a year or two away from being truly competitive, which has them picking near the top of the draft yet again.
One area they could still address is the wide receiver room. DaVante Parker seems to be finally showing what he is capable of, and had a great close to the 2019 season. In Week 17 he had quite the afternoon against Stephon Gilmore, viewed as the top cornerback in the league. But beyond Parker the Dolphins have questions at the position.
That leads us to Chase, the early front-runner for WR1. He put up huge numbers last season for the LSU Tigers, and in the process set the single season records for receiving yards and touchdowns in the SEC. No small feat from a sophomore. He is great at the catch point and has incredible change-of-direction skills both before and after the catch. Chase would be a great fit in the offense we can expect to see from Chan Gailey and the Dolphins in 2020.
6. New York Giants: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
Linebacker might not be the most coveted position in the modern game, but if you are going to use an early pick on an LB, you want to get a good one.
Micah Parsons is a good one.
Parsons is a true sideline-to-sideline player, who seems to be playing two steps ahead of everyone else on the field. He combines great athleticism with tremendous vision and instincts for the position. Parsons is also able to do more than most linebackers: He was a defensive end in high school and his pass-rushing traits show up when he’s allowed to attack the passer. But he also has the coverage skills you need from a linebacker if you are going to trust them in sub packages or on third downs. He can be the matchup type of defender that modern defenses need.
The Giants have a need at linebacker, even with the off-season acquisition of Blake Martinez and the growth shown from David Mayo in 2019. Parsons would be a huge injection of talent into this defense.
7. Detroit Lions: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
There are a few reasons why Trey Lance could be the selection in this spot for the Detroit Lions. First off, one has to imagine that the seat under Matt Patricia is a bit warm, especially given the expectations set in place by ownership the past off-season. If the Lions are still picking this early in the draft, odds are that a new regime is in town, and they might want to put their stamp on the future with the new face of the franchise.
Even if Patricia returns, the Lions might think about addressing the quarterback position if they are picking near the top of the board again. This is no knock against Matthew Stafford, who remains an elite talent at the position. But Stafford has battled back injuries each of the past two seasons, and the chance to lock up a potential franchise passer is often too good to pass on. Lance might be playing at the FCS level, but don’t let that fool you. He is every bit the part of a future franchise QB.
8. New York Jets: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Patrick Surtain II might be the next player in a long line of secondary standouts from Alabama to find his way into the first round of an NFL Draft. The son of a former NFL defensive back, Surtain plays with veteran savvy and patience. Thanks to playing under Nick Saban, he’ll be ready for whatever an NFL playbook throws at him.
But in terms of his pure talent, Surtain is almost teaching tape at the position. He is patient at the line of scrimmage and never panics, but is good at getting his hands onto receivers and rerouting them off the line. He is fluid with his footwork and through his hips, allowing him to stick on receivers on double-moves and against quick cuts. He is good at the catchpoint as well, with good technique to play up through the pocket and break up potential completions. The Jets might look to a wide receiver here, depending on how Denzel Mims and Breshard Perriman pan out, but provided those players have good years, Surtain is a good fit.
9: Las Vegas Raiders: Marvin Wilson, DL, Florida State
If the Las Vegas Raiders are indeed picking this high again in 2021, you would think quarterback is in play. However, with the top three players off the board, and a bit of a dropoff from Lawrence/Fields/Lance to the next tier of passers, the Raiders look elsewhere.
They do not need to look long, as they can find the top interior defensive linemen falling into their lap. Interior defensive tackles might not be a highly-coveted position, but players like Marvin Wilson do not come around every draft cycle. Wilson can both stop the run on the inside while still attacking the pocket with an array of pass-rushing moves that some edge defenders would love to have in their arsenal. Las Vegas has some talent on the edges, with Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby, and adding Wilson to the front would make their defensive line much more formidable.
10. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans): Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
Again, the Miami Dolphins are in position to have a couple of first round picks at their disposal, and are on the clock again as part of the Laremy Tunsil trade.
Provided things fall they way they have in this draft, the opportunity to address pass rush is too good a value to pass up. There are some intriguing options at that position for the Dolphins at this point, but they stay with an EDGE player from down the street, Gregory Rousseau from Miami. Rousseau tallied 15.5 sacks in 2019 for the Hurricanes, and has the hand quickness and speed-to-power skills you need off the edge to succeed in the NFL. Brian Flores has put his stamp on the Miami defense, adding talent in the secondary and at linebacker. Now he gets the pass rusher to attack opposing QBs.
11. Denver Broncos: Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
The Denver Broncos added A.J. Bouye this off-season in a trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars, but having lost Chris Harris Jr. in free agency, they still need to add depth and talent to their cornerback room.
Tyson Campbell might not be the top cornerback on many boards right now, but he moves well in space and has the length and speed to handle the routes he will face – and the receivers he’ll be asked to cover – in the professional game. Eye discipline might be an issue to watch in 2020, but he has the traits you want in a first-rounder at the position.
12. Atlanta Falcons: Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami
You can never have enough pass rush in today’s NFL, and the Atlanta Falcons could use another defender to come off the edge. Quincy Roche turned in a tremendous campaign last season for the Temple Owls, notching 13 sacks and finishing the year being named as the American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year.
He transferred to Miami over the winter as a graduate, and now gets to align up front with Gregory Rousseau on the opposite edge. That should give him some one-on-one chances, where he does some of his best work. Explosive, powerful and with an array of pass-rushing moves, he should put together another great season and truly boost his draft stock.
13. Chicago Bears: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Last season with the Crimson Tide, Jaylen Waddle was perhaps the fourth option for Tua Tagovailoa in the passing game, after Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III and DeVonta Smith. But Waddle was given chances on some designed plays, such as bubble screens, slants off of run/pass option designs, and shallow crossing routes.
Does that sound like what Matt Nagy has in place with his offense?
Provided Nagy has another season in Chicago, Waddle would be a perfect fit in his offense. His ability after the catch is tailor-made for a West Coast system, and while his teammate Smith might be the better all-around receiver, Waddle is ideal for Chicago.
Now if they can just figure out the quarterback position…
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams): Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
Tight end might not be the most coveted position early in the draft, but with a second first-rounder the Jacksonville Jaguars have a chance to take advantage and grab a player who can be a focal point of their offense for the next few seasons.
Nicknamed “Baby Gronk,” Freiermuth looks the part of a true NFL tight end, in the vein of George Kittle. He handles the blocking responsibilities of the job well, but can be a true weapon as a receiver. Penn State would use him in some Y-Iso alignments, getting him on the boundary against linebackers in space which is a very favorable matchup for him. If you are going to build around a young quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, having a tight end like this is a huge boost to the development process for the QB.
15. Cleveland Browns: Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama
If there is an issue on the defensive side of the ball for the Cleveland Browns, it is likely at the second level. The organization added Jacob Phillips in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and have two players from the 2019 draft in Sione Takitaki and Mack Wilson slated in as starters currently.
But Moses is another stout linebacker who can be a three-down defender in the NFL. He has the athleticism to fly around the field and make plays along the boundaries, and can also stick on receivers in man coverage situations. He is a sure tackler who rarely misses, whether in traffic or outside in space.
16. Arizona Cardinals: Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State
The Arizona Cardinals have done a great job assembling skill players on the offensive side of the football the past few seasons. As they head into 2020 they can roll out a 10 personnel package of Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and someone from the Hakeem Butler/Andy Isabella/KeeSean Johnson trio. With Kyler Murray pulling the strings and Kenyan Drake in the backfield, this is a potent group.
Obviously wide receiver could be a need still in 2021, if Fitzgerald hangs up the cleats or they cannot find a fourth member of the group from that above triumvirate. But if they can address other needs, the interior of the offensive line would be a place to start. That leads us to Davis, an athletic blocker who does a great job on zone designs and moving into space. That would be an ideal fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.
17. Tennessee Titans: Carlos Basham, Jr. EDGE, Wake Forest
The Tennessee Titans would benefit in adding a pass rusher opposite Harold Landry, and they do just that by selecting the EDGE from Wake Forest. Carlos Basham Jr. posted 18 tackles for a loss and ten sacks a season ago, and is a force against both the run and as a pass rusher.
Watching him on film, you see what you want to see from an EDGE defender. Basham plays the run well and is a plus player in terms of identifying his run fits. He has a solid tool kit of moves off the edge, including a bull rush and a swim move. This would give Tennessee a stout front with Jeffrey Simmons on the inside and Basham/Landry coming off the edges.
18. Los Angeles Chargers: Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
If Justin Herbert is the quarterback of your future, you need the cornerstone tackle to protect him.
The Los Angeles Chargers acquired Bryan Bulaga this off-season and have slotted him in at the left tackle spot, but the veteran OT has spent the bulk of his career on the right side.
Drafting Leatherwood gives them that cornerstone type of left tackle, and the flexibility to move Bulaga back to the right side. The Alabama OT is aggressive and has strong hands as a pass protector, and is a force in the running game on both gap/power and zone blocking schemes.
19. Buffalo Bills: Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
Shaun Wade has spent the past two seasons aligned inside, playing mostly as a slot defender. In that role he has excelled, showing the change-of-direction skills needed to cover players who have that two-way go coming off the line of scrimmage. With Jeff Okudah’s departure to the NFL, Wade will now step outside. Provided he translates as well along the boundary as expected, his draft stock will skyrocket.
If the Buffalo Bills have a question mark on the defensive side of the football, it is the cornerback spot opposite Tre’Davious White. If Wade performs well on the outside he could be a great running mate with White, but his versatility will make him a desirable option at the next level.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
The Pittsburgh Steelers could go in a number of directions with this pick, including addressing the interior defensive line in the wake of Javon Hargrave’s departure for Philadelphia. But they take advantage of a bit of a fall, and grab DeVonta Smith, a potentially elite wide receiver from Alabama.
Sure, the Steelers drafted Chase Claypool early in the 2019 NFL Draft, but there is still a chance he becomes mroe of a move tight end at the next level. Smith would give the Steelers’ offense another weapon on the outside, and the Alabama WR is a solid route-runner who plays with no fear over the middle. Pairing him with the other weapons in Pittsburgh would be a huge boost to that passing game.
21. Green Bay Packers: Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
After the entire football world clamored for the Green Bay Packers to draft a wide receiver in the first round of the 2019 Draft – and were stunned when the Packers traded up for quarterback Jordan Love – the organization gives everyone what they wanted to see a year later.
Matt LaFleur might be moving to more of a San Francisco 49ers style of offense, relying on 21 personnel looks and throwing off of play-action against 21 offensive personnel, but you still need two wide receivers to do that. There are questions at that position after Devante Adams, and Rondale Moore could be the ideal Z receiver to put across from Adams. He is great after the catch and has the short area quickness you look for in a receiver who does his work near the line of scrimmage.
22. Minnesota Vikings: Hamilcar Rashed Jr., EDGE, Oregon State
There might be some better-known EDGE rushers in the upcoming class, but you would be wise to learn the name Hamilcar Rashed Jr., and to study his game. When you see him on film you see the traits that matter at the position. Rashed has the quickness and hand skills that enable him to beat tackles coming off the edge, as he displays on this sack of Hawaii’s Cole McDonald:
He took a huge leap forward in 2019, tallying 14 sacks after putting just two and a half on the board during his first two college seasons. But his talent is impressive. Pairing him up front with Danielle Hunter would revamp the Minnesota Vikings’ pass rush in an instant.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Hamsah Nasirildeen, S, Florida State
Heading into the 2020 season, the Philadelphia Eagles are looking to replace Malcolm Jenkins at the safety spot with Jalen Mills, a converted cornerback and a seventh-round pick in 2016. If that move does not pan out, they might want to address safety in the upcoming draft.
This could be a great safety class, with players like the TCU pair of Ar’Darius Washington and Trevon Moehrig, Oregon’s Richard LeCounte III, and Caden Sterns from Texas. However, sitting here in early August Florida State safety Hamsah Nasirildeen might be the best of the bunch. He fits the mold of the modern safety with the range to play in single-high schemes but the aggression and willingness to play down in the box. He tore his ACL late in the season, but provided he is healthy he might be a great option at this spot for Philadelphia.
24. Indianapolis Colts: Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford
If there is an issue on the defensive side of the football for the Indianapolis Colts, boundary cornerback is that issue. They added Xavier Rhodes this offseason at one cornerback spot, and are looking to perhaps T.J. Carrie or Rock Ya-Sin at the other spot (Kenny Moore II has the slot position locked down quite well).
Provided cornerback is the position to address, Paulson Adebo is a wise choice. He has started for the past two years on the outside for Stanford, and has the footwork and hip flexibility to stick on receivers in man coverage situations. He plays great in zone coverage schemes, something that will matter for the Colts as a zone-heavy team, as Adebo has great eye discipline and feel for passing off routes underneath. He would be an almost-ideal fit for the Colts’ defense.
25. New England Patriots: Jaylen Twyman, DL, Pittsburgh
Sure it is tempting to go with a skill position here, perhaps a tight end or even a reach for a quarterback. But we know how Bill Belichick’s mind works. In all likelihood he’ll be trading out of the first round or if he stays, they’ll address a different position entirely.
Defensive line might just be that position. In the past few years the New England Patriots have added talent on the edges, including Chase Winovich, Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings in the past two drafts, but the interior is a different question. Players like Adam Butler and Lawrence Guy, as well as Beau Allen this offseason, can help, but Twyman is a potential difference-maker. He can rush the pocket from the inside but plays extremely well against the run. Given where he plays, comparison to Aaron Donald can be expected come fall Saturdays, but in reality he is a solid option that you know Belichick will love.
26. New York Jets (via Seattle Seahawks): Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma
The New York Jets added a lot of talent to their offense this off-season, bringing in Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims on the outside, and adding up front with Mekhi Becton and Cameron Clark in the draft, and Greg Van Roten, Connor McGovern and George Fant in free agency.
Creed Humphrey is likely the top center in the draft, and he has the movement skills and the experience to be the heart of an offensive line at the next level. As pointed out by Jordan Reid in his analysis of the Sooners center, Oklahoma lost four players on their offensive line prior to 2019 and did not miss a beat due to Humphrey’s leadership and veteran presence. He would be a great addition to the Jets’ offensive line.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama
A role player last season for the Crimson Tide, Christian Barmore was used primarily as a third-down specialist for most of the 2019 campaign before carving out more playing time down the stretch. Nick Saban used him mostly as a base 4-technique, aligned opposite the tackles, but he has the frame and skill-set to align along the inside as well.
Adding him to the Dallas Cowboys’ defensive front would be a great coup for the roster. Dallas added some veteran interior players this past off-season in Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe, but Barmore could be used to spell either player in 2021 while he develops his own game.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
Oh we’re getting a little spicy…
It seems with each passing draft cycle there is a quarterback that rises up boards seemingly out of nowhere. Now, with the advent of #DraftTwitter it is harder and harder to find those players, as year-round draft coverage identifies targets earlier and earlier each draft cycle. Still, no one really saw the rise of Joe Burrow last year, or Mitchell Trubisky from a few years ago.
Could Kyle Trask be that kind of passer? Perhaps. He has the arm talent, pocket movement skills and quick release that coaches want at the position. Trask also shows good manipulation with his eyes and some potential schematic diversity. We know Tom Brady wants to play until he is 45, but Bruce Arians might want to grab the quarterback of the future, and Trask could be that guy.
29. New Orleans Saints: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Sure, the New Orleans Saints might go in a completely different direction. They might be in the market for a new quarterback, even if you believe what Sean Payton is saying about Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston. They could look to address the defensive side of the football.
But for a team that runs a lot of 11 personnel, adding another talent at wide receiver is never a bad option. Sure, Rashod Bateman decided to opt-out of the 2020 season, but that should in no way diminish what he offers at the position. He is a legitimate first-round talent, with release skills to beat the press coverage he’ll see at the next level and the vertical ability to be a weapon downfield. Pairing him with Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders is almost an ideal 11 personnel WR room.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Paris Ford, S, Pittsburgh
Yes, the Pittsburgh defense is going to be fun to watch this season.
The Baltimore Ravens do not have a ton of needs on paper right now, but one of those on the defensive side of the football might be the safety position. Heading into 2020 they still have Earl Thomas, who remains a premier player at the position, as well as players like Chuck Clark, Jordan Richards and Geno Stone, a 2019 seventh-round pick. But Paris Ford could be a great player at safety for years to come.
Right now Ford is more of a strong safety, who does his best work down in the box against the run with the willingness to stick his nose into traffic, or working in zone coverage areas underneath. He is still learning and developing his deep safety skills, so pairing him with Thomas would be an almost ideal way to start his career.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State
Yeah if you don’t already feel old, you do now seeing this name.
The son of a former NFL cornerback, Asante Samuel Jr. is carving out his own legacy as a sticky coverage cornerback. Florida State trusted him enough to leave him on an island against some of the best receivers the ACC has to offer, and he more than held his own in those matchups. He has the movement skills and change-of-direction ability that matter at cornerback, and looks to be fast enough to handle the burners he might see in the NFL.
If there is a weakness to his game right now, it comes at the catch point. There are times on film where he loses in contested catch situation, but if he cleans that up just a bit, he’ll be a first-rounder for sure. He’ll get to learn from Richard Sherman as he eases into the NFL.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Myers, C, Ohio State
Similar to the Baltimore Ravens, what glaring needs do the Kansas City Chiefs have right now on paper? Sure, you might say cornerback, but with this wildly hypothetical board falling the way it has, the value might not be there, although options such as Eric Stoke from Georgia or T.J. Carter from Memphis are certainly viable.
Instead, the Chiefs look to the interior of their offense line and add a solid option at center in Josh Myers. He moves well in space and can drop his anchor well in pass protection.
