The best part of doing power rankings this early in the offseason, of course, is that the league year doesn’t turn over until March 18. So, no free agency yet, and no draft picks, which gives us, at best, a 50% understanding of how each team will look in 2020. Throw in new coaching staffs and front offices for a handful of teams, and things can get very interesting very quickly.
Still, there are fundamental, franchise-altering questions that should be asked this early, and some teams won’t be as different when the first kickoff happens in September. So, with the Chiefs installed as the 2019 NFL champions and everybody else looking up to dethrone them, here are our way-too-early power rankings for the 2020 season.
32. Cincinnati Bengals
Current cap space: $44,701,400
Primary free agents: WR A.J Green, TE Tyler Eifert, CB Darqueze Dennard.
The Bengals’ decision to move on from Andy Dalton is the right one; throughout his nine-year career, Dalton put the franchise in the purgatory of having a quarterback good enough to keep, but never spectacular enough to make things happen in the postseason. Cincinnati will likely go with LSU’s Joe Burrow as Dalton’s replacement, and while that gives the team a ton more quarterback upside, there’s still a lot for the Bengals to do before they’re out of the cellar. Only the Raiders and Dolphins ranked worse in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency metrics, and there were far too many examples of players in the wrong places under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who kept his job. On offense, head coach Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan need to put some zip in an offense that ranked 29th in FO’s metrics and has very few current stars outside of running back Joe Mixon and receiver Tyler Boyd. Burrow or not, this is going to be a big rebuild.
31. Carolina Panthers
Current cap space: $32,687,733
Primary free agents: TE Greg Olsen, DT Gerald McCoy, OLB Mario Addison, OT Daryl Williams, CB James Bradberry, CB Ross Cockrell, EDGE Bruce Irvin, S Tre Boston
Change is here for the Panthers, but to what end? General manager Marty Hurney has said that he’s uncertain about Cam Newton’s future with the team. Newton missed 14 games last season with various injuries, and the team could save $19.1 million in cap space if Newton were to be released. New head coach Matt Rhule might want to go in a different direction, but given Rhule’s one year of NFL experience as the Giants’ assistant offensive line coach in 2012, it’s difficult to know what that means at this point. James Bradberry and Ross Cockrell, the Panthers’ two best cornerbacks, will be free agents when the league year turns over. Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore are major offensive talents who will help Carolina’s quarterback du jour, whoever that may be, but there’s a lot of uncertainty here for a team that went 5-11 in 2019 and has an owner in David Tepper who’s definite enough about results to have fired former head coach Ron Rivera in early December. Rhule may find himself on a similarly short leash.
30. Washington Redskins
Current cap space: $38,951,968
Primary free agents: OG Brandon Scherff, RB Chris Thompson, QB Case Keenum, OT Donald Penn, OG Ereck Flowers
Speaking of Rivera, he’s now in charge of a Redskins team that also fired its head coach (Jay Gruden) during the 2019 season and is looking for a culture change. The idea is to give Rivera more control than past Redskins coaches have had; team owner Dan Snyder fired 10-year team president Bruce Allen in late December and rearranged the front office in hopes of presenting a more cohesive vision. Rivera is an excellent defensive coach, and one of his primary tasks will be to improve a defense that has fallen into disrepair. On offense, Washington has Adrian Peterson and the potential of Derrius Guice at running back, and future star Terry McLaurin at receiver. Franchise quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a rough rookie season, struggling to read defenses and move past his first and second reads, so offensive coordinator Scott Turner and quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese have their work cut out for them. If you want to know how Washington plans to climb out of the 3-13 hole it dug last season, you can start right there.
29. Detroit Lions
Current cap space: $47,054,794
Primary free agents: DL Mike Daniels, WR Danny Amendola, S Tavon Wilson, CB Rashaan Melvin, G Graham Glasgow
Following the 2017 season, the Lions fired former head coach Jim Caldwell after back-to-back 9-7 seasons and a 36-28 four-year record because the organization wanted more. They then hired former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, and so far, Patricia has filled the paradigm of ex-Bill Belichick assistants who strike out on their own: Generally, they strike out. Patricia has a 9-22-1 mark after two seasons, the Lions went 3-12-1 in 2019, and while Matthew Stafford missing the final eight games of the season with a back injury was a primary factor there, the real disconcerting part of Patricia’s tenure is how the defense has bottomed out as the head coach has endeavored to get “his type of guys” in the building. So far, that’s led to a lot of on-field confusion and few positive results. Patricia better put it together with as many of his guys as he can, or the Lions will be fishing for another head coach sooner than later.
28. Miami Dolphins
Current cap space: $89,390,424
Primary free agents: CB Aqib Talib, OG Evan Boehm
The idea for the 2019 Dolphins was to tank without admitting to tanking; to open up as much salary cap space as possible for a total rebuild. Not a bad idea after two straight seasons under Adam Gase where things got worse and worse, but the Dolphins took the remodel to a different level. When all the moves were done, including trading left tackle Laremy Tunsil and receiver Kenny Stills to the Texans for a host of draft capital and offloading defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers, Miami had three picks in the first round of the 2020 draft — the fifth, 18th and 26th sections — and the start of a new era. What the Dolphins also found out is that first-year head coach Brian Flores appeared to be the rare former Patriots assistant with a knack for the head coaching game. Flores’ team started 0-7 and looked as bad as you’d expect for a while, but consecutive wins over the Jets and Colts told a different story. In the end, the Dolphins finished 5-11 with season-ending wins over the Bengals and Patriots. Last season was a rough one, but the Dolphins clearly have the pieces in place at the top. Now, they just have to go and make the rebuild real.
27. New York Jets
Current cap space: $49,693,190
Primary free agents: WR Robby Anderson, CB Brian Poole, WR Demaryius Thomas
Jets quarterback Sam Darnold missed three games early in the 2019 season with mononucleosis. In those games, started by backup Luke Falk, head coach Adam Gase’s offense scored a grand total of three field goals and no touchdowns. The offense gained 105 yards against the Patriots in Week 3 and 128 yards after the bye against the Eagles in Week 5. Falk was in no way ready for prime time, but Gase’s response to the anemic output was disconcerting at best.
Things got a bit better when Darnold returned in Week 6, but Gase’s attitude continued. In December, he was quoted as saying that he didn’t care about fan criticism because he was “rich as [expletive].”
It’s not that Gase has to be Mr. Congeniality, but given his career results as an NFL head coach — a 30-34 record over three seasons with the Dolphins and 2019 with the Jets — he hasn’t exactly earned the right to shoot his mouth off. The Jets did go 6-2 in the second half of the season, and if Gase can keep that momentum rolling, perhaps all will be forgiven.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars
Current cap space: (minus-$3,419,464)
Primary free agents: EDGE Yannick Ngakoue
In December, the Jaguars fired Executive VP of Football Operations Tom Coughlin for at least two reasons: multiple grievances filed against him by Jaguars players with the NFLPA, and a two-season stretch in which the team went 11-21 after a 10-6 season in 2017 when the Jags reached the AFC Championship Game and played the Patriots tight in the first half before everything fell apart. Head coach Doug Marrone has to be on the hot seat as well, and owner Shad Khan has to be wondering where it all went wrong. Over the past three seasons, Jacksonville has fielded one of the league’s most talented defenses with enough good players on offense to partially overcome its quarterback schisms, led by Blake Bortles. The ostensible answer was to sign Nick Foles to a four-year, $88 million contract before the 2019 season, but Foles missed nine games with a broken clavicle, and when he returned, he was so ineffective that he was benched in Week 13. The Jags may have backed into their actual quarterback of the future in sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew, the Washington State alum who had rough patches but showed talent and situational bravado this team hasn’t had since the days of David Garrard.
25. Denver Broncos
Current cap space: $61,946,764
Primary free agents: FS Justin Simmons, CB Chris Harris Jr., DL Derek Wolfe, DT Shelby Harris
“Yeah, that’s what I like. Contrary to the stereotype that is always out there — a defensive head coach wants to ground and pound and considers a pitch to the halfback a pass — that is not me. I like to be aggressive.”
That’s what Broncos head coach Vic Fangio said Thursday in the press conference welcoming new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur to the team. Shurmur, the former Giants head coach, does have a favorable recent history in this regard. As the Vikings’ offensive coordinator in 2017, he somehow turned Case Keenum into one of the NFL’s most effective downfield passers with route concepts that presented his quarterback with easy deep reads.
Now, Shurmur has second-year quarterback Drew Lock, whose arm sets up very nicely for deep throws — even if his GPS isn’t always on point. Last season, Lock completed three of 11 passes of 20 or more air yards for 96 yards, one touchdown and one interception. There’s work to be done here, but Lock has the most potential of any Broncos quarterback since … well, Peyton Manning. Not to put Lock on that level yet; it’s more an indictment of the quarterbacks John Elway has chosen over the past few seasons. Shurmur and Lock seem like a good match.
24. New York Giants
Current cap space: $61,887,217
Primary free agents: DL Leonard Williams, EDGE Markus Golden, RT Mike Remmers
Joe who? That was certainly the question on most minds when, after firing Pat Shurmur, the Giants went with former Patriots special teams coordinator and wide receivers coach Joe Judge as their head coach, based in part on the high recommendation of a former Giants defensive coordinator: some guy named Bill Belichick. If Judge is indeed the guy, he’ll have to prove it with a roster that has holes all over it, a general manager in Dave Gettleman who is as vocal as he is impulsive and old school, an ownership group which is now perceived to have jumped the shark, and the ability to handle all this in the media capital of the world. In the end, it might make coaching punts for Belichick look pretty appealing. But Judge does have a star running back in Saquon Barkley and a quarterback with potential in Daniel Jones, which gives him a couple of good starting points. If Gettleman can do a half-decent job of buying the groceries and staying out of his own way, the Giants might actually manage their first winning record since 2016.
23. Cleveland Browns
Current cap space: $49,574,690
Primary free agents: LB Joe Schobert, LT Greg Robinson, S Damarious Randall
Last season, Cleveland promoted former offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens to head coach, a move that proved disastrous as the uber-talented but hyper-undisciplined Browns finished 6-10 and underperformed in every possible way. Now, they’ve replaced Kitchens with former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, a respected coach in the league who has his work cut out for him. Not only will he have to manage all kinds of egos and pull that locker room together, he’ll also have to align the Browns’ offense with the two things the Vikings’ offense were known for last season — boot-action success and a highly effective zone running game. That those two things were actually hallmarks of Vikings assistant head coach Gary Kubiak, and have been for years … well, let’s just say it wouldn’t be out of character for the Browns to hire the wrong guy.
22. Las Vegas Raiders
Current cap space: $54,918,096
Primary free agents: S Karl Joseph, OG Richie Incognito, EDGE Benson Mayowa
The Raiders have a new home in Las Vegas, but does that lead to new hope for a team that is 11-21 in Jon Gruden’s two years back with the franchise? Quarterback Derek Carr finished the 2019 season with career bests in completion percentage (70.4%), passing yards (4,054), yards per attempt (7.9) and passer rating (100.8). Carr also finished sixth in Football Outsiders’ cumulative opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics for quarterbacks last season. But there doesn’t seem to be a sure-thing status regarding Gruden’s feelings about Carr, and that’s not the only issue here. The Raiders’ secondary combined for 18 touchdowns allowed, but just six interceptions in 2019. The Raiders finished 24th in the league in both points scored and points allowed, and although Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock came through with an absolutely fantastic rookie class in 2019, there’s still work to be done. Committing to a quarterback would help.
21. Los Angeles Rams
Current cap space: $14,716,619
Primary free agents: EDGE Dante Fowler Jr., OT Andrew Whitworth, DL Michael Brockers, LB Cory Littleton, K Greg Zuerlein
The Rams’ all-in, short-term, win-now philosophy almost bore the best fruit at the end of the 2018 season, if only Sean McVay’s team could have beaten the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII. After that didn’t happen, a whole lot of other things didn’t happen in 2019. First of all, the Rams didn’t make the playoffs, finishing with a 9-7 record after a 13-3 mark the year before. Jared Goff didn’t develop as a quarterback — in fact, he regressed in several areas as opposing defenses seemed to figure him out. A cautious approach to Goff’s future didn’t happen; last September, the Rams gave Goff a four-year, $134 million contract that included an NFL-record $110 million in guarantees. That’s a major commitment to a quarterback who has proven very little regarding his ability to succeed outside of McVay’s structure.
Speaking of that structure, as much as teams figured Goff out, they also seemed to find McVay’s offense, with its tight formations and motion concepts, less intimidating than before. The running game was less effective, as was the defense. That led to the firing of defensive coordinator Wade Philips and rumors that the Rams are interested in trading franchise back Todd Gurley. This is now a team that will struggle to improve outside of the draft because it has massive cap commitments to Goff, Gurley, defensive lineman Aaron Donald and receiver Brandin Cooks. They also have to pay cornerback Jalen Ramsey, whom they acquired from the Jaguars in exchange for 2020 and 2021 first-round picks, and he will require a mammoth deal in the near future.
That is the problem with a win-now philosophy. Eventually, all the bills come due at the same time — especially when several of your financial commitments are questionable at best.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current cap space: $79,894,844
Primary free agents: QB Jameis Winston, EDGE Shaquil Barrett, RT Demar Dotson, WR Breshad Perriman, DL Ndamukong Suh, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, OLB Carl Nassib, RB Peyton Barber
Bucs head coach Bruce Arians has always employed a “no risk-it, no biscuit” philosophy, which is to say that he wants his quarterbacks to turn it loose in the vertical game with big plays as the result. Problem with Jameis Winston is, the big plays happen too often for the other team. In 2019, Winston infamously became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, opponents scored a league-high 112 points off those picks, and that included seven pick-sixes, the most for any quarterback in a single season in NFL history.
What to do now that Winston is a free agent? Tampa Bay has an amazing corps of receivers and a vastly improved defense under coordinator Todd Bowles, but if Winston keeps hurling biscuits all over the field, none of that will matter. Arians has defended his quarterback to a point, insisting that not all the interceptions were Winston’s fault — but as the season wore on, he also bemoaned the regression. Will Arians take another shot on the guy who threw for 5,109 yards, the eighth-highest single-season total ever, or go after a quarterback who can risk it with fewer ancillary headaches?
19. Atlanta Falcons
Current cap space: $5,292,104
Primary free agents: EDGE Vic Beasley, DE Adrian Clayborn, LB De’Vondre Campbell, CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB Jamar Taylor, P Matt Bosher
Falcons head coach Dan Quinn escaped the guillotine after the 2019 season despite a 1-7 start because he proved flexible enough to cede coaching responsibilities to others. He moved Raheem Morris from wide receivers to secondary and gave linebackers coach Jeff Ulbrich a bigger piece of the pie. The result? A 6-2 second half of the season, and a defense that improved from 29th to 10th in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted defensive metrics.
“There aren’t many guys that could’ve come into the room as a head football coach this year in a 1-7 setting and reset the tone — just literally reset the tone,” Falcons president Rich McKay said of Quinn in a statement. “Took some ownership of why we were at 1-7 on himself, beyond just pointing at the players and saying it’s on you. He turned the mirror towards himself and he just reset the mindset. And that’s who he is.”
That is indeed who Quinn is. With Morris now installed as defensive coordinator, perhaps the Falcons can improve on two consecutive 7-9 seasons and live up to their overall potential. If not, Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff are probably out the door.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
Current cap space: $1,430,975
Primary free agents: DL Javon Hargrave, OLB Bud Dupree
In 2019, Ben Roethlisberger managed to play just six quarters of football before losing the rest of the season to an elbow injury. That left the offense in the hands of quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Devlin “Duck” Hodges. That didn’t go too well, as the Steelers finished 30th in passing DVOA, 30th in rushing DVOA and dead last in offensive DVOA and weighted offensive DVOA, which gives more credibility to results late in the season. So Big Ben’s return is a must if the Steelers are to do anything in the 2020 postseason; Mike Tomlin deserved a few Coach of the Year votes for getting that team to 8-8 with what it had. With Roethlisberger back under center, what the Steelers have is a defense that improved exponentially, especially after acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins. Pittsburgh’s coaching staff switched Fitzpatrick from Swiss Army Knife to deep safety, and everything locked into place. This is a team that can do a lot of damage in the AFC with an actual quarterback.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Current cap space: $48,707,802
Primary free agents: QB Philip Rivers, RB Melvin Gordon, TE Hunter Henry, S Adrian Phillips
The Chargers seem prepared to move on without quarterback Philip Rivers, the most prominent free agent on their list when the new league year turns over, and the team’s starting quarterback since 2006. It will make a potential free agency of veteran quarterbacks even more interesting, though Rivers’ turnover rate (20 interceptions last season, and several in crucial moments) is cause for concern. For the Chargers, who finished with a league-worst minus-17 turnover differential and were 2-9 in one-possession games, the hope is that luck will turn in their favor in 2020. Without Rivers, the team’s quarterback depth chart consists of Tyrod Taylor and Easton Stick, so if the Rivers era is over, general manager Tom Telesco and head coach Anthony Lynn had better be ready to pin their hopes on the right replacement.
16. Chicago Bears
Current cap space: $4,929,361
Primary free agents: S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, DL Nick Williams, LB Danny Trevathan, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, QB Chase Daniel
In the end, it doesn’t really matter that the Bears have a young running back with potential in David Montgomery, or a talented group of receivers, or a great defense, or a gifted offensive mind in head coach Matt Nagy. Because when you’re albatrossed at quarterback like Chicago is with Mitchell Trubisky, all that other stuff will become more meaningless than it should be. In the offseason, the Bears hired Bill Lazor as offensive coordinator and John DeFilippo as quarterbacks coach, and announced Dave Ragone’s promotion from quarterbacks coach to passing game coordinator. Throw those guys on top of Nagy’s at times brilliant passing game schemes, and there are no more excuses for Trubisky. The Bears made an enormous, franchise-defining mistake when they moved up in the 2017 draft to select Trubisky No. 2 overall, leaving Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson on the board, and nothing has made their guy a consistent quarterback. If it doesn’t happen in 2020 with all that coaching capital, Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace will find themselves pressed against the wall.
15. Arizona Cardinals
Current cap space: $53,657,294
Primary free agents: RB Kenyan Drake, OT D.J. Humphries, TE Charles Clay, DL Rodney Gunter, DT Zach Kerr
If 2018 was the Year of Mahomes and 2019 was the Year of Lamar … well, it’s quite possible that 2020 could be the season in which Kyler Murray ascends to the top group of the quarterback pantheon. In his rookie season, Murray put up two games with passer ratings over 100 against a fierce 49ers defense, and he didn’t look overwhelmed against any defense. There’s a lot to build on there, especially since Murray looks like a natural fit in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Questions surround the legitimacy of Murray’s weapons, with David Johnson’s possible upcoming release and the lack of a No. 1 receiver outside of 36-year-old Larry Fitzgerald, and the defense is in need of retooling aside from a few key pieces. But in what should be a murderously competitive NFC West, at least the Cardinals have the game’s most important position sewn up.
14. Dallas Cowboys
Current cap space: $77,234,623
Primary free agents: QB Dak Prescott, WR Amari Cooper, DE Michael Bennett, WR Randall Cobb, CB Byron Jones, LB Sean Lee
Following an 8-8 season in which his coaching decisions were frequently and justifiably questioned, Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett was cashiered after nine-plus seasons. To replace him, owner Jerry Jones hired Mike McCarthy, the former Packers head coach whose year off in 2019 put him in Pro Football Focus’ offices and hanging out with a bunch of former head coaches, trying to find an edge for his return. McCarthy has said all the right things about analytics and game theory; if that makes him more inclined to have a usable playbook longer than three pages, the Cowboys should be in decent shape, as long as they get Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper re-signed. But what if this is fool’s gold, and McCarthy 2.0 turns out to be vaporware? Dak Prescott is many things, but he isn’t an Aaron-Rodgers-in-his-prime who can erase coaching malfeasance to that level.
13. Philadelphia Eagles
Current cap space: $40,930,800
Primary free agents: OT Jason Peters, S Rodney McLeod, WR Nelson Agholor, DE Vinny Curry
The Eagles finished 9-7 last season, their second year in a row with such a record after their Super Bowl win at the end of the 2017 campaign. We’re inclined to give Doug Pederson’s team a relative pass for a couple of reasons — a running game that had Miles Sanders leading all backs with just 818 yards, and more importantly, an absolutely horrific slate of receiver injuries that resulted in Greg Ward and Robert Davis as the team’s starting wideouts in Philly’s wild-card loss to the Seahawks. Quite a step down from the ideal of DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. If the Eagles can reassemble that offense and improve on a defense that had its moments despite all the inconsistency, the Eagles could do more than just win a weak NFC East in 2020.
12. Indianapolis Colts
Current cap space: $86,162,964
Primary free agents: LT Anthony Castonzo, DL Jabaal Sheard, TE Eric Ebron, S Clayton Geathers
Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement last August left the Colts in a pickle. Expected to compete at a high level with their franchise quarterback guiding a team adeptly constructed by general manager Chris Ballard and expertly coached by Frank Reich and his staff, Indy was left with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who they knew from his 2017 season spelling the injured Luck. Sometimes it worked; sometimes it didn’t. Brissett completed 60.9% of his passes for 2,942 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions — not bad numbers, but the Colts’ passing game was almost completely missing the explosive plays needed to wrestle with the NFL’s best defenses. A 7-9 record isn’t good enough for the Colts, and Brissett may not be, either.
“Jacoby did some good things … but our passing game has to improve, unequivocally,” Ballard said at the end of the season. “The jury is still out.”
Generally speaking, when a GM says the jury is still out on a quarterback, the jury has already come back with a unanimous verdict. So watch for the Colts to take their scads of cap space (only the Dolphins have more going into the 2020 offseason) and address this with a certainty. They may have run out of Luck last year, but the Colts are in no way a falling or failing team.
11. Houston Texans
Current cap space: $55,192,117
Primary free agents: CB Bradley Roby, CB Johnathan Joseph, DT D.J. Reader, TE Darren Fells, S Jahleel Addae, RB Carlos Hyde
Last we heard from Bill O’Brien, the Texans’ head coach was coming off a historic walloping in the divisional round at the hands of the Chiefs, who shook off a 24-0 deficit and went on to break O’Brien’s team in half with seven consecutive touchdown drives in a 51-31 rout. O’Brien’s game mismanagement was somehow rewarded with more power in the organization and the title of general manager, while defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel — whose decision to play man coverage over and over against the Chiefs was highly problematic — was asked to take an advisory role, whatever that means. It’s a weird time for a Texans team with a legitimate Super Bowl window if everything goes well, but it will take a lot to recover from the way the 2019 season ended, especially with O’Brien in charge of so much.
10. Minnesota Vikings
Current cap space: (minus-$11,366,514)
Primary free agents: S Anthony Harris, S Andrew Sendejo, CB Trae Waynes, CB Mackensie Alexander
When you look at Minnesota’s list of impending free agents, you see the real problem with Mike Zimmer’s team coming into the 2020 league year. It’s not the limitations of quarterback Kirk Cousins, though that will be an issue wherever Cousins lines up under center. It’s a secondary that seriously underperformed in certain areas (the cornerbacks) and was seriously underrated in other areas (the safeties). Harris, one of the most valuable defensive players in the league, was the only player to pick off seven passes without allowing a touchdown in the 2019 season. He’s about to get Tyrann Mathieu money or more. Waynes and Alexander present more complicated problems. Waynes and battery mate Xavier Rhodes allowed nine touchdowns and had just one interception between them, and while Alexander was more consistent in a positive way, when you have a situation where you need to replace the production of two starting outside cornerbacks, and you are over the cap by more than $11 million, and you would like to retain one of the best safeties in the NFL … let’s just say the Vikings might be in for a major defensive regression in 2020.
9. Buffalo Bills
Current cap space: $80,186,963
Primary free agents: DL Jordan Phillips, RB Frank Gore, CB Kevin Johnson, DE Shaq Lawson
Given the Patriots’ possible offseason instability, the Bills are in a good position to potentially take over the AFC East. They have an outstanding defense, led by cornerback Tre’Davious White, who is the league’s best zone defender. They have a dynamic running game with the tag team of Devin Singletary and Frank Gore, though the veteran Gore may play elsewhere in 2020. The Bills also have John Brown, who might be the NFL’s most underrated receiver. And the coaching staff, led by Sean McDermott, clearly has what it takes to ascend. The primary question is whether quarterback Josh Allen can become enough of a pure passer to take that offense to the proverbial next level. A great runner and occasionally a real threat as a deep passer, Allen still struggles with accuracy and consistency, and this really came through in Buffalo’s 22-19 wild-card loss to the Texans. Allen had the ball as the primary instigator on 56 plays — 46 passing attempts, nine runs and one reception — and the only touchdown the Bills scored on the day was Allen’s 16-yard reception from Brown. If Allen isn’t able to take his game to a trusted place, the Bills will be stuck in second gear — and second place.
8. New England Patriots
Current cap space: $45,565,319
Primary free agents: QB Tom Brady, S Devin McCourty, OG Joe Thuney, LB Kyle Van Noy, OT Marshall Newhouse, WR Phillip Dorsett, LB Jamie Collins
Well, that is a weird name to see up top. The re-signing of Tom Brady, which has been relatively automatic since his first contract extension in 2002, comes into question now. Brady played the 2019 season benefiting from the best defense in his pro career, but he was stuck with the least-impressive receiving weapons he’s had since the Reche Caldwell era. Something has to change. New England’s offense gave the defense no margin for error, nor did it hide Brady’s own limitations at age 42. Brady may want to go to a team where he can throw the ball to top-level receivers; he doesn’t have time for a rebuild. Although, with most of that insanely good defense still under contract, perhaps it’s just a matter of signing a couple of free-agent receivers, re-thinking the offensive line without longtime coach Dante Scarnecchia (a major loss no matter how you look at it) and pointing Brady at the big play once again. Without him, Bill Belichick would face the biggest challenge of his coaching career. No matter what happens with Brady, the Patriots need better weapons. Losing him would complicate things in all kinds of ways.
7. Tennessee Titans
Current cap space: $50,708,536
Primary free agents: RB Derrick Henry, QB Ryan Tannehill, CB Logan Ryan, RT Jack Conklin, EDGE Kamalei Correa
The Titans have a couple really interesting decisions to make. Do they think 2019 rushing champ Derrick Henry is worth top running back money, or is he fungible? There’s an argument to give him a Todd Gurley-level contract … until you play the Gurley situation out. Gurley may not even be on the Rams’ roster in 2020, and the Cardinals are looking to release David Johnson. That would mean two of the top four running back contracts on the move. The Titans’ brain trust must also decide if Ryan Tannehill’s season was a precursor or an outlier. Given Tannehill’s obvious chemistry with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, that could be an easier call. Another transition for Mike Vrabel’s team is the retirement of defensive coordinator Dean Pees, whose masterful coverage designs made Tennessee’s defense as good as it could possibly be. That’s a lot of moving parts for a team on the rise after four consecutive 9-7 seasons.
6. Seattle Seahawks
Current cap space: $50,775,222
Primary free agents: DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE Ezekiel Ansah, DT Jarran Reed, OG Mike Iupati, OT Germain Ifedi, C Joey Hunt, RB Marshawn Lynch
During Super Bowl week, Russell Wilson was asked by NBC Sports’ Chris Simms why the Seahawks’ passing game isn’t called more consistently as it is in hurry-up situations, and used in a multiple sense. His answer was fascinating.
“I think that’s what we’ve got to figure out. … We’re trying to capture that early on,” Wilson said. “We’ve always been really good at two-minute … those up-tempo moments. I really kind of know how I want to get after [the defense] in those moments, and guys just make plays in those moments. The freedom of going after it and scoring as many points … that’s kind of what the Chiefs do. They do a really good job of that — Andy Reid and [Patrick Mahomes]. They do a really good job of making plays, and they score more points than everybody else.”
Invoking the Chiefs’ offense when Wilson works with a head coach in Pete Carroll whose philosophies regarding ball control and offensive balance are well known? Highly interesting, to say the least. Wilson has all the talent required to run such an attack, but will his coaches let him? Given the current state of Seattle’s pass defense, Carroll should bend here and let Wilson score a few more touchdowns to make up for the ones the Legion of Whom are capable of allowing.
5. Green Bay Packers
Current cap space: $23,700,042
Primary free agents: OT Bryan Bulaga, LB Blake Martinez, CB Tramon Williams, K Mason Crosby, WR Geronimo Allison, OLB Kyler Fackrell
It took a while for Aaron Rodgers, who was accustomed to improvising in Mike McCarthy’s schematically limited passing game, to take to the weight of first-year head coach Matt LaFleur’s structured, balanced attack. The scheme wasn’t as explosive, but Rodgers himself hadn’t been as explosive as he was at his peak, when he performed as one of the most gifted passers in NFL history. Still, he completed 62% of his passes this past season for 4,002 yards, 26 touchdowns and just four interceptions with a limited cadre of weapons (basically Davante Adams and the Pips). Green Bay’s running backs flourished, a redefined defense got hot all the way until it was dismembered by the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, and the Packers will go into 2020 as one of the most competitive and complete teams in the NFL. If LaFleur can bring the zing back to Rodgers’ game, that might be all it takes for a Super Bowl berth.
4. New Orleans Saints
Current cap space: $9,398,192
Primary free agents: QB Drew Brees, QB Teddy Bridgewater, LB A.J. Klein, CB Eli Apple, CB P.J. Williams, S Vonn Bell, OG Andrus Peat
There’s nothing like having two of your three quarterbacks on the line in free agency when the new league year begins. Drew Brees and Sean Payton have worked together since 2006, and as unimaginable as it is for the two to be working apart in 2020 and beyond, it’s not impossible. Payton has said the Saints want Brees back, but Payton also recently pointed to a limited downfield attack. Brees has said that if Payton wants to call more plays for Taysom Hill, whom the team seems to believe is the future at quarterback for the Saints, he’s cool with that. It’s a pretty gutsy statement for the team to take the reins from a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and hand them to a guy who’s completed seven of 15 passes with no touchdowns and one interception in his NFL career (including the postseason). Maybe it’s just leverage, as Brees is still on the fence as to whether he’ll come back in 2020. That’s a whole lot of questions at the most important position for a team credibly seen as a Super Bowl contender once the new season begins.
3. San Francisco 49ers
Current cap space: $13,858,285
Primary free agents: DE Arik Armstead, S Jimmie Ward, WR Emmanuel Sanders, C Ben Garland
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan still confidently carries no regrets for his play-calling in Super Bowl LIV, but that doesn’t mean those questions are going away. Shanahan also says that he has complete confidence in quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, which is going to be a tough sell. The 49ers gave Garoppolo a five-year, $137.5 million contract in 2018, and though it was front-loaded to absorb a $37 million cap hit in the first year, 2020 presents the 49ers with a $26.6 million hit versus a $4.2 million dead cap balance should the team decide to move on. So, we’re about to find out how legitimate Shanahan’s belief really is. Should Garoppolo progress as the 49ers hope he will, the franchise retains an incredible running game, confident receivers and a top-two defense. Getting back to the Super Bowl and actually winning it is going to be on Garoppolo’s shoulders at some point. We don’t yet know if that is a good thing for the 49ers.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Current cap space: $27,750,854
Primary free agents: CB Jimmy Smith, DT Michael Pierce, LB Patrick Onwuasor, WR Seth Roberts
There are currently two Lamar Jacksons, and thus, two Baltimore Ravens teams. There’s the regular-season Lamar Jackson who, in 2019, became the second unanimous NFL MVP in history (matching Tom Brady in 2010) with a league-leading 39 touchdown passes, and a record-breaking 1,206 rushing yards for a quarterback. There’s also the postseason Lamar Jackson who, in two career games (both losses) has completed 51.1% of his passes, thrown three touchdown passes and three interceptions, taken 11 sacks and looked overwhelmed against the defenses of the Chargers (in the 2018 postseason) and the Titans (in the 2019 postseason), when he was shown new looks.
The regular-season Ravens became the first team in 17 years to lead the league in both rushing and passing DVOA. They absolutely crushed the rest of the league in Total DVOA, Football Outsiders’ primary opponent-adjusted efficiency metric on both offense and defense. But until postseason Lamar catches up to regular-season Lamar, it’s going to matter less and less — and the questions will increase. The Ravens have set things up to go as their quarterback goes. Right now, that’s a bit of a mixed blessing.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Current cap space: $16,164,494
Primary free agents: DL Chris Jones, LB Reggie Ragland, CB Bashaud Breeland, DB Kendall Fuller, DE Terrell Suggs, OL Stefen Wisniewski
The Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl win in which they’ll be able to keep the offense together, and the only guy on the defensive side of the ball who’s about to get a monster check is defensive lineman Chris Jones — whom I argued should have been the Most Valuable Player of Super Bowl LIV. But there’s no reason to think, as long as everyone stays healthy, the Chiefs won’t be in the hunt to repeat. Patrick Mahomes struggled through knee and hand injuries during the season and looked relatively mortal for a while — then he turned it all on at the right time. His postseason stats: 72 completions in 112 attempts for 901 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions, plus 24 rushing attempts for 135 yards and two more touchdowns — including one of the better touchdown runs in postseason history — and it tells that side of the story.
Factor in a defense that improved graphically over the second half of the season under coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, and these guys aren’t going anywhere but right back up to the top. Andy Reid had to wait a long time for his first Lombardi Trophy; it might only be about 365 days until he gets his second.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar previously covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”
