As the 2019 NFL regular season came to an end Sunday, I thought back to the start of the season and realized that things turned out very differently than I expected.
I also write for Street & Smith’s magazines, and I pulled out a copy of their season preview and reviewed my predictions and the magazine’s collective predictions. Let’s just say I was off by a mile in some cases, and the magazine was right on some and very wrong on others.
For the sake of humility, let’s start with my Super Bowl pick. I had the Rams defeating the Chargers. In reality, neither team made the playoffs. The overall magazine staff picked the Saints to defeat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. That prediction remains in play.
Perhaps my worst pick was selecting Baltimore to finish last in the AFC North. Here’s where the Ravens and the other 31 teams stand in Touchdown Wire’s final regular season Power Rankings.
32. Cincinnati Bengals
(2-14. Last week: 32)
The Bengals were predictably bad with a new coach, Zac Taylor, and a roster that doesn’t have much talent. There were no miracles in Cincinnati as the Bengals just kept losing. Does Taylor even get a second season? Probably so. Owner Mike Brown stuck with coach Marvin Lewis through some rough times. Taylor likely will get a bit more time to try to turn things around. The only good news out of this season is that the Bengals will get the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. At the moment, virtually everyone is projecting that to be LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, the Heisman Trophy winner. Scouts and draftniks say he’s NFL ready. That means he’ll help the Bengals right from the start. But this team needs much more than a change at quarterback to turn things around.
31. Washington Redskins
(3-13. Last week: 31)
There are big changes coming in Washington after a hugely disappointing season. Coach Jay Gruden was fired during the season. Team president Bruce Allen reportedly will be stripped of his football operations duties, although he may remain with the team, with his main role being to help the Redskins get a new stadium. That would be a good move. Despite being the son of legendary coach George Allen, Bruce Allen is not a football guy. In his 10 years in Washington, the Redskins won zero playoff games. They need a football guy at the top, and they need a new coach. Owner Dan Snyder is likely to make a splash hire for the coaching job because he needs to revive a frustrated fan base. The only bright spot to this season was rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins. He still has a long way to go, but he showed promise at times.
30. Detroit Lions
(3-12-1. Last week: 30)
Coach Matt Patricia has had two dismal seasons. But his job is safe. The team already has announced that Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn will return next season. Ownership likely gave Patricia a pass because he was without injured quarterback Matthew Stafford for much of the season. Stafford should be back and healthy next year. But Quinn and Patricia need to bring in more talent on both sides of the ball in the offseason. Owner Martha Ford isn’t going to remain patient forever. Patricia needs to win in 2020 or else he’ll be gone.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
(6-10. Last week: 29)
One of the more disappointing teams in the league, the Jaguars were supposed to bounce back from a rough 2018 season and get back to the form they showed in the 2017 season, when they made it to the AFC Championship Game. Much of the hype came because they signed free-agent quarterback Nick Foles. But Foles got hurt in the season opener, and the Jaguars turned to sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew, who played surprisingly well. Now, the dilemma for next year is whether to start Foles or Minshew. The competition between those two in the preseason probably will be one of the most interesting storylines in the league in the summer. It remains to be seen if coach Doug Marrone will be back after two disappointing seasons. The Jaguars already fired executive vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin and may decide to have a thorough housecleaning.
28. New York Giants
(4-12. Last week: 27)
The Giants have been patient with coaches for most of their history. But that changed when Ben McAdoo was fired after two seasons. Pat Shurmur could follow the same track after two disappointing seasons. But his saving grace could be that he’s got the nucleus of a good young offense in place. Second-year running back Saquon Barkley is one of the best all-around players in the league, and rookie quarterback Daniel Jones showed promise. But it’s up to the front office to improve the offensive line and defense. If Shurmur survives, he likely will make some changes to his coaching staff.
27. Miami Dolphins
(5-11. Last week: 28)
Although Miami stunned New England with a victory Sunday, this was not a great year for the Dolphins. Early in the season, there was speculation that the Dolphins were losing on purpose to get the No. 1 overall draft pick. There was even talk of an 0-16 season, which seemed quite possible after an 0-7 start. For whatever reason, Miami stayed with veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for most of the season instead of going with second-year pro Josh Rosen, who was a first-round pick by Arizona last year. The Dolphins gave Rosen only a brief look, so it’s obvious he’s not their future. Miami still will have the No. 5 overall draft pick. Will the Dolphins’ quarterback of the future be available at that spot?
26. Carolina Panthers
(5-11. Last week: 26)
There will be major changes in Carolina this offseason after a disappointing season that ended with an embarrassing loss to New Orleans on Sunday. There will be a coaching change. Ron Rivera was fired during the season and replaced by interim coach Perry Fewell. It’s safe to say Fewell won’t get the permanent job. Owner David Tepper seems poised to hire a big name as he continues to distance the current team from its past. The more intriguing storyline is at quarterback. Cam Newton missed all but two games with a foot injury and was also coming off major shoulder surgery. He may no longer be the long-term answer. Plus, Newton’s contract makes him vulnerable. He’s scheduled to make $21 million next season, but the Panthers could clear $19 million in cap space by trading or cutting Newton.
25. Los Angeles Chargers
(5-11. Last week: 25)
Another of the league’s most disappointing teams, the Chargers are likely to have some major changes in the offseason. Head coach Anthony Lynn might be pressured into making changes to his coaching staff. But the bigger change could come at quarterback. Philip Rivers’ contract is up and he doesn’t appear to have much left. The Chargers still have plenty of talent, so don’t expect them to blow up the roster. Drafting a quarterback would set the franchise back. The Chargers might be better off bringing in a free agent such as Teddy Bridgewater. Someone like Bridgewater could fix this team in a hurry.
24. Arizona Cardinals
(5-10-1. Last week: 24)
All in all, the season was a relative success for the Cardinals. Arizona started the season looking like one of the league’s worst teams. But rookie NFL head coach Kliff Kingsbury got steady improvement from his roster as the season went on. More importantly, rookie quarterback Kyler Murray got better as time went on. Murray isn’t a finished product by any means, but he showed signs he was worthy of the No. 1 overall draft pick. Kingsbury and the front office need to continue to improve Murray’s supporting cast in the offseason, but the Cardinals probably are at least a couple years from competing with Seattle and San Francisco in the NFC West.
23. New York Jets
(7-9. Last week: 23)
The Jets got off to a slow start with new coach Adam Gase. Quarterback Sam Darnold’s bout with mononucleosis played a big role in the early struggles, as he missed four games. But the Jets eventually turned things around and turned in a respectable first season for Gase. The coach came with a reputation of being a quarterback guru. Once Darnold got healthy, Gase showed what he can do with a quarterback. Darnold still is far from elite, but he’s solid. The Jets need to address their defense heavily in the offseason if they’re going to gain any ground on New England and Buffalo in the AFC East.
22. Atlanta Falcons
(7-9. Last week: 22)
After a 1-7 start, coach Dan Quinn appeared to be on his way out. There was even speculation Quinn wouldn’t last the whole season. But the Falcons regrouped during their bye week and started winning. That prompted owner Arthur Blank to decide to keep Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff for 2020. They obviously have offensive talent with quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Julio Jones. But defense was a problem, even though that’s Quinn’s area of expertise. Part of the package in keeping Quinn is that Raheem Morris will be the defensive coordinator in 2020. Morris flopped as a head coach, but he was too young at that time. He’s had a chance to mature and should make the defense better.
21. Cleveland Browns
(6-10. Last week: 21)
In the offseason, a lot of people expected big things from the Browns. After all, they appeared to have hit the jackpot with quarterback Baker Mayfield, who set an NFL record for touchdown passes by a rookie (27) last season. The Browns traded for Odell Beckham Jr. to give Mayfield a big-time receiving threat. But things didn’t work out as planned. Mayfield didn’t progress, and Beckham played much of the season with a foot injury. On Sunday night, owner Jimmy Haslam fired rookie coach Freddie Kitchens, who made questionable decisions and had trouble managing the clock. Now, the Browns are looking for a head coach for the seventh time since 2009.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(7-9. Last week: 17)
Jameis Winston made history Sunday by becoming the first Tampa Bay quarterback to throw for 5,000 yards in a season. But there’s always a flip side with Winston. He ended up leading the league in interceptions with 30, including a pick-six in overtime against the Falcons. That’s why Tampa Bay enters the offseason having to make a crucial decision about the franchise’s future. Will Winston be back for a sixth year? Probably so. Coach Bruce Arians isn’t the type to give up on a talent like Winston. But the Bucs would be foolish to sign Winston to a hefty long-term contract. More than likely, they’ll put the franchisee tag on him. That would give Arians one more year to try to clean up Winston’s mistakes.
19. Indianapolis Colts
(7-9. Last week: 19)
The Colts ended their season with a 38-20 loss to Jacksonville. A 7-9 season might not seem bad considering this team lost quarterback Andrew Luck to an unexpected retirement in the preseason. But hopes got high when replacement Jacoby Brissett got off to a good start — that ultimately didn’t last. All too often, Brissett played like he did Sunday (12 for 25, 162 passing yards, no TDs, no interceptions). Brissett doesn’t lose games, but he doesn’t win them. The Colts need to do a hard evaluation of Brissett in the offseason. They may have to go outside and find a more prolific quarterback, because Brissett too often has looked like the backup he was before Luck retired.
18. Denver Broncos
(7-9. Last week: 20)
The Broncos finished their season on the upswing with a one-point win against Oakland. Count this season as a positive for the Broncos under first-year coach Vic Fangio. He’s a defensive guru, and he’ll have that side of the ball in good shape with another offseason. Fangio just needs an offense to go with it. It looks like he might have found a solid quarterback in rookie Drew Lock, who won’t be Peyton Manning but can be efficient and take care of the ball. That’s all the Broncos need to be a playoff contender next year
17. Chicago Bears
(8-8. Last week: 18)
The Bears finished the season with a two-point win against Minnesota. That wasn’t as good as it might sound when you consider that the Vikings, who already had clinched a playoff spot, sat most of their starters. An 8-8 season might be respectable for a lot of teams, but the Bears went 12-4 last year and expectations were high. Put the blame on the offense. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky regressed from last year and may have cost the Bears a playoff berth. The Bears have a good defense. They need to sit down this offseason, take a long look at Trubisky and decide if he can make this team a winner. If not, someone like Teddy Bridgewater could be a nice alternative.
16. Oakland Raiders
(7-9. Last week: 15)
The Raiders entered the day needing a win against Denver and some help to make the playoffs. Neither happened, and their season is over. More significantly, so is their time as the Oakland Raiders. They’ll be the Las Vegas Raiders next season, and the future looks bright. In the second season of his second stint with the franchise, head coach Jon Gruden has his team headed in the right direction. He’s got a quarterback he likes in Derek Carr and a strong running back in Josh Jacobs. With those two in place, the Raiders are a team on the rise. They could be a serious playoff contender in their first year in Las Vegas.
15. Dallas Cowboys
(8-8. Last week: 14)
Despite four touchdown passes from Dak Prescott and a 47-14 win against Washington, the Cowboys missed the playoff because Philadelphia won to clinch the NFC East. Consider that the end of the era for Dallas coach Jason Garrett. Despite having Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper, Garrett couldn’t do better than a .500 record. That’s probably going to be the last straw for owner Jerry Jones, who thought he had a Super Bowl contender. Jones wouldn’t comment on Garrett’s status after the game. But that will play out quickly. Look for Jones to go for a big name. And don’t be surprised if he tries to trade for Saints coach Sean Payton or Vikings coach Mike Zimmer, two former Dallas assistants.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
(8-8. Last week: 13)
The Steelers entered the day with slim playoff hopes. They needed a win against a Baltimore team that was resting its starters and for the Titans to lose at Houston. The Steelers got neither. But this is the rare occasion where a .500 season was a success. Pittsburgh lost quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to injury early and had to play with backups Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph. Mike Tomlin and his staff coached their tails off just to get to 8-8. There’s no need to panic. Roethlisberger has come out and firmly said he plans to play in 2020. With Roethlisberger, this team is an instant playoff contender.
13. Los Angeles Rams
(9-7. Last week: 16)
The Rams wrapped up their season with a 31-24 win against Arizona to finish with a winning record. Like it mattered? This is a team that was in the Super Bowl last year and didn’t even qualify for the postseason this year. The Rams might have been the league’s most disappointing team, especially after going all-in each of the past two years. General manager Les Snead’s track record suggests he’ll go all-in again this offseason. The Rams are moving into a new stadium next year, and they need to win to draw big crowds. It’s not hard to figure out what Snead needs to work on. It’s the running game. When the Rams were good, Todd Gurley was the focal point of the offense. But Gurley, who has issues with his knee, wasn’t the focal point this season. Quarterback Jared Goff isn’t good enough to take this team deep into the playoffs by himself. The Rams need to find a new running back.
12. Philadelphia Eagles
(9-7. Last week: 11)
The Eagles did their part. They defeated the Giants 34-17 to clinch the NFC East and block rival Dallas, a winner against Washington, from the playoffs. Quarterback Carson Wentz was efficient, throwing for 289 yards and a touchdown. But he needs to be even better if the Eagles are going to go anywhere in the postseason. The Eagles may seem like a long shot to do much in the playoffs. They’ve been inconsistent and have had some big injuries in their receiving corps. But this is a team with Super Bowl experience, so anything is possible.
11. Tennessee Titans
(9-7. Last week: 12)
The Titans needed a win against Houston to clinch a playoff spot. So what if the Texans sat many of their starters? Tennessee, which started the season 2-4, enters the playoffs on a roll and is a dangerous team. That’s because quarterback Ryan Tannehill has found a home in Nashville after taking over the starting job from Marcus Mariota. Tennessee’s offense now is loaded with running back Derrick Henry, who finished as the league leader in rushing yards (1,540) and A.J. Brown, a budding superstar at wide receiver. The only bad news is the Titans have to go to New England in the first round of the playoffs.
10. Houston Texans
(10-6. Last week: 10)
The Texans lost to the Titans in a game that didn’t really matter to Houston because it already had clinched a playoff berth. The Texans sat some of their starters and pulled others throughout the game. They’ll host Buffalo in the wild-card round, and on the surface, that looks like a pretty even matchup. Quarterback Deshaun Watson and the starters should be rested for the Buffalo game. But it’s the Houston defense that should get an even bigger boost. Defensive end J.J. Watt is expected to return from injury, and his pass-rushing skills change the entire complexion of the Houston defense.
9. Minnesota Vikings
(10-6. Last week: 9)
The Vikings lost to the Bears on Sunday, but that meant nothing. Minnesota sat many of its starters because it already had clinched the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoffs. Even with the final seed, the Vikings are a team that’s potentially dangerous in the postseason. The defense is solid, and so is the running game on offense. That’s what you would expect from a team coached by Mike Zimmer. But this team has something extra. It has a solid passing game. It didn’t start out that way, as quarterback Kirk Cousins struggled early in the year. But after receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs expressed dissatisfaction with Cousins, he’s been prolific since Week 5.
8. Buffalo Bills
(10-6. Last week: 8)
The Bills lost to the Jets in a game that had no playoff implications. That’s why coach Sean McDermott barely played quarterback Josh Allen and many of his starters. The Bills will face Houston in the first round of the playoffs. Anything the Bills do in this year’s postseason is gravy. It’s more about the future. With Tom Brady getting older, New England can’t own the AFC East forever. The Dolphins and Jets have some rebuilding to do. The Bills already are good and could overtake the Patriots next year.
7. Seattle Seahawks
(11-5. Last week: 6)
The script was all set. Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch, re-signed by the team just this week, was on the field with less than a minute left. The Seahawks had a first down at the 1-yard line. All Lynch had to do was leap over the pile and score, like he’s done so many times in the past. But the Seahawks inexplicably ran out the play clock and took a 5-yard penalty that they weren’t able to overcome. That cost the Seahawks the NFC West championship and dropped them to the No. 5 seed. Seattle now has to travel to Philadelphia for a wild-card matchup.
6. New England Patriots
(12-4. Last week: 3)
It’s not often that the Patriots lose a game with big playoff implications. Yet that’s what happened Sunday as Miami upset New England in Foxborough. That cost the Patriots the AFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. Instead, they’re the No. 3 seed and must play in the wild-card round for the first time since 2009. New England fans have been nitpicky this year because the Patriots haven’t been as sharp offensively as in past years. Maybe the Miami game shows that fans are right to have doubts. The Patriots have to be far better in the postseason if they’re going to repeat as Super Bowl champions. But as long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are around, anything remains possible.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
(12-4. Last week: 7)
The Chiefs did their part Sunday with a win against the Chargers. Then, they caught an unexpected break as Miami stunned New England. That gives Kansas City the AFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. That’s important, as the Chiefs start their annual crusade to prove coach Andy Reid can win it all. Reid never did that in Philadelphia, and he hasn’t done it yet in Kansas City. But this team is one of Reid’s best. He had a good quarterback in Donovan McNabb in his Philadelphia days. But he’s got a better one in Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. That may be enough to get the Chiefs past Baltimore and into the Super Bowl.
4. Green Bay Packers
(13-3. Last week: 5)
The Packers weren’t overly impressive in a 23-20 victory at Detroit. But they’ve been winning ugly lately. But wins are wins and this one earned the Packers a first-round bye in the playoffs and a home game in the second round. Playing in Lambeau Field obviously is a big advantage for the Packers. But they need to improve their all-around game, because the playoffs are much more intense than the regular season. Give credit to first-year coach Matt LaFleur for getting the Packers to where they are and getting along with quarterback Aaron Rodgers. After picking up Mike McCarthy’s mess, LaFleur has to be a leading candidate for Coach of the Year.
3. San Francisco 49ers
(13-3. Last week: 4)
The last game of the NFL’s 100th NFL season might have been the best of the year and perhaps one of the greatest ever. Although San Francisco dominated the first half, Seattle came back and took the game down to the wire. But San Francisco ended up winning, 26-21. That was enough to give the 49ers the NFC West crown and a No. 1 playoff seed. That gives San Francisco a bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. This one was well earned. San Francisco used a balanced offense to win. More importantly, the defense came through when it mattered most. The San Francisco defense, helped by a Seattle delay-of-game penalty, stopped the Seahawks inches from the goal line. That creates a much easier path for the 49ers, who would’ve had to go to Philadelphia in the first round if they had lost to the Seahawks.
2. New Orleans Saints
(13-3. Last week: 2)
Very quietly, the Saints set an NFL record Sunday while blowing out Carolina. New Orleans finished the season committing only eight turnovers. That’s remarkable under any circumstances. But it’s especially impressive considering that the Saints did it with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater starting five games (all wins) in place of an injured Drew Brees. Heading into the postseason, Brees and the New Orleans offense (especially receiver Michael Thomas) are as good as ever. That’s the trademark of a team coached by Sean Payton. But the Saints are particularly dangerous this year because they have the best overall defense of the Payton era.
1. Baltimore Ravens
(14-2. Last week: 1)
The Ravens sat most of their starters because they already had clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs. That’s a long way from where a lot of experts thought the Ravens would be when the season started. Some observers were critical of Baltimore for letting veteran Joe Flacco go and turning to second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson. Many said Jackson was nothing more than a glorified running back. With 1,206 rushing yards and seven touchdown runs, Jackson proved he can run effectively. But he also showed he can throw by passing for 36 touchdowns. Jackson is going to be the league’s Most Valuable Player. The Ravens are the best team in football. They just have to prove it again in the postseason.
Pat Yasinskas has covered the NFL since 1993. He has worked for The Tampa Tribune, The Charlotte Observer and ESPN.com and writes for numerous national magazines and websites. He also has served as a voter for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
