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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Kate Lyons , Kevin Rawlinson, Andrew Sparrow and Matthew Weaver

May survives confidence vote with a majority of 83 – as it happened

Coverage continues here for Thursday’s developments:

Folks, we’re going to call it a night and wrap up this blog.

For the night shift workers and insomniacs among you, don’t worry, I’ll be back with a fresh blog in just a few hours (about 5:30am) as we look ahead to what next for Theresa May, Britain and Brexit.

Thanks for following along, for your great questions on Twitter and fabulous comments (30k comments! solid effort Politics Live community).

See you shortly.

Impact on the pound

The pound largely held onto overnight gains on Thursday after British Prime Minister Theresa May pulled through a no-confidence vote on her leadership that bought her more time to try to sell her unpopular Brexit deal to a deeply divided parliament.

The euro edged higher against the dollar after Italy lowered its deficit target for next year and said it expected the European Commission to accept its new 2019 budget proposal.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major rivals, was steady at 97.032. It had fallen from a near one-month high overnight, losing almost half a percent, its steepest drop in two weeks.

In a secret ballot, May won the support from 200 of 317 Conservative lawmakers.

Any respite for the pound was expected to be short-lived, however, as a mutiny by more than a third of her lawmakers signalled she was no nearer to passing her plan to leave the European Union.

“Just after the actual result was announced, profit-taking dominated, (but) sterling stopped appreciating,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.

“That shows it’s not bad news, but it doesn’t fix the Brexit issue. In that sense, uncertainty continues.”

Sterling held steady at $1.2627 in early trade on Thursday. It had bounced off a 20-month low of $1.2477 during the previous session, ending 1.1 percent higher on the day in the aftermath of the vote.

An excellent question from a reader:

Dan Sabbagh has this answer to that question:

What will the Labour party do now – can it force the situation?

It would be intriguing if Labour were to call a vote of no confidence in May’s government, given the scale of the rebellion on Wednesday night. If hard Brexiters really want a change of leadership – they could, in theory, side with Labour, although in practice that would be a major step for a Tory MP to take.

Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act that would not immediately force a general election, but rather open a 14-day window for somebody else, almost certainly another Tory leader, to form a new government, which would need to be confirmed by a further vote of confidence.

That alone, might give Labour strategists pause – but the party leadership is also holding back because, if it does not succeed, defeat in a vote of no confidence could play into the hands of second referendum campaigners.

Those calling for a second vote want Labour to conclude that it cannot force a general election in line with its carefully crafted Brexit policy, and move on to campaigning for another referendum instead.

But Jeremy Corbyn has always been lukewarm and there is huge suspicion over the subject among those close to the leader, because many of those keenest on a second referendum in the party have been some of the biggest critics of him in the past.

Labour may act in calling for a vote of no confidence, but it would be a surprise if did so before Christmas. The party line is that it wants to see May definitively fail in the Brexit talks first and that is more likely to take place in the new year.

From Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party and East Belfast Assembly member:

Associated Press has this summary of reactions from different politicians to today’s vote:

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling, an ally, said the result showed that May “has the support of her party.”

“This is a clear statement by the parliamentary party they want her to go forward, they want her to lead us through Brexit,” he told Sky News.

But pro-Brexit Conservative MP Mark Francois said the result was “devastating” for May, who has lost the support of a third of her party in Parliament.

“If I were her, I wouldn’t be pleased with this at all,” Francois said. “I think she needs to think very carefully about what to do now.”

Opposition lawmakers expressed astonishment and outrage at the Conservative civil war erupting in the middle of the fraught Brexit process.

“This government is a farce, the Tory party is in chaos, the prime minister is a disgrace,” Scottish National Party leader Ian Blackford said during a pugnacious Prime Minister’s Questions session in the House of Commons.

British business figures expressed exasperation at the continuing political uncertainty.

“With news that the prime minister remains in place, business communities will hope that these political games can finally be put to bed,” said Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce.

“Westminster must now focus all its energy on urgently giving businesses clarity on the future and avoiding a messy or disorderly Brexit.”

What about the ‘meaningful vote’?

The result clearly highlights May’s essential Brexit problem. The number of rebels at 117 is eyecatchingly similar to the 100 or so MPs who were planning to vote against her Brexit deal before she postponed the vote a day before its scheduled date of Tuesday.

It is a blocking minority preventing the current deal, or anything like it, from being ratified by parliament. To win round that amount of rebels, May has to make dramatic progress in her talks with Brussels and persuade the right of her party that she can “bin the backstop”.

However, the European Union has made it repeatedly clear that the legally binding 585-page withdrawal agreement – which contains the Northern Irish backstop – is not up for renegotiation. And without renegotiation, the backstop will endure and Tory rebels will almost certainly not vote for it.

No 10 has promised that the vote will happen before 21 January, which in negotiating terms is very little time at all. So the Brexit fundamentals at Westminster remain, for now, unchanged.

Vince Cable, leader of the Liberal Democrats, is on Twitter calling for a People’s Vote.

My colleague Dan Sabbagh has written a very helpful article answering some key questions that have arisen from the day’s events. You can read the full article here, I’ll be posting some of his answers in the blog, starting with:

Has Theresa May done enough to secure her position?

The 200-117 result is in truth finely balanced. It is enough of a win to avoid Theresa May’s immediate resignation, but the rebellion is at a significant level too.

Hard Brexiters such as Mark Francois took immediately to the airwaves to point out, correctly, that over a third of the Conservative parliamentary party had voted against May.

Once the government ministers are excluded, that proportion rises to more than half of the so-called no-payroll vote.

Some called for her to sleep on the result, and – rather than go to Brussels on Thursday for the next round of Brexit talks with the European Union – to resign.

But it is easy to dismiss that sort of talk as sour grapes: in the end May won the contest in front of her and given the sensitive position of the Brexit negotiations it is hard to imagine cabinet members calling on her to go with so much unresolved.

There’s been a lot of talk today about May’s win being a “pyrrhic victory”. We’re all extremely intelligent people and know exactly what that is, of course, but just in case anybody needs a refresher …

Wiki definition of pyrrhic victory

Updated

May also features on the front pages of foreign papers. In the Netherlands, May is said to have done a “Houdini-act” of escape.

The papers are starting to roll in and it does not look good for May. The narrative is not one of triumph for the PM, but of her barely scraping through and indeed many papers are saying she is fatally wounded and should leave.

The Sun tells the prime minister “Time to call it a May”, showing its inability to pass up any opportunity to get a play on words into their headline. Let’s hope for the sake of the Sun’s sub-editors that whoever is PM next has a name that lends itself equally well to punning.

“A vote to Remain, but when will she Leave?” asks the Telegraph. The Mirror says: “It’s lame duck for Christmas” saying May’s “goose is cooked”.

But two papers are backing May and her authority. The Daily Mail’s headline is “Now let her get on with the job!” and the Express has “Now just let her get on with it”.

Updated

Hello politics fans, this is Kate Lyons taking over from Kevin Rawlinson to mop up any late-night developments and reaction.

If you want to get in touch, tweet me @mskatelyons or write me a message in the comments.

Evening summary

It’s been a busy day in Westminster but here’s a summary of the events so far:

  • Theresa May won a confidence vote among her parliamentary party colleagues by 200 votes to 117. Under the Conservatives’ rules, that meant the effort to force her to stand down from within the party is over for at least a year. However, the result – as well as the fact that enough MPs were willing to demand a vote in the first place – led some of her colleagues to conclude May should resign anyway. Crucially, May appeared to retain the support of her cabinet.
  • In an effort to sway MPs who were wavering, May said she would not fight the general election in 2022. The promise was interpreted as a compromise to allow her to stay on in the medium term to see through Brexit and may have convinced some undecided MPs to back her.
  • Jeremy Corbyn challenged May to call the Brexit vote next week. The Labour leader said the victory over the plotters in her own parliamentary party made no difference; May had still “lost her majority in parliament” and was “unable to deliver a Brexit deal that works for the country”, he said.
  • Speaking outside No 10 after the result of the vote was announced, May said she now wanted to focus on the task at hand. And, echoing Corbyn’s rhetoric in recent days, she stressed that that included more than just Brexit, saying she would also prioritise housing, public services and other issues.

That’s all from me. I’m now handing over to my colleague Kate Lyons.

Updated

So, Steve Baker, Jacob Rees-Mogg and the rest of you, was that really worth it? After the day of folly it doesn’t look that way. In the end, the interminably long-discussed Conservative leadership challenge to Theresa May has come to nothing. When it came to it – even in a secret ballot where MPs could set their public protestations of loyalty to one side – it proved to be more mouth than trousers, a scary firework banger, but a one-day wonder, a brief distraction from the serious business of Brexit. Tomorrow, grownup politics, damned difficult politics, resumes after today’s hiatus.

The leader of the Scottish National party and the first minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, has also been having her say:

This result is barely even a pyrrhic victory for the prime minister, who has now admitted her time in office is limited. She may have clung on to the Conservative leadership, but her remaining authority has been fatally undermined.

Even after being forced into saying she would stand down soon, almost 40% of her parliamentary group have voted against her – meaning presumably a majority of her backbenchers did so. In any normal situation, the prime minister’s position would be untenable.

She said the UK is in a state of political chaos that can be traced to a “vicious civil war that has engulfed the self-centred Conservative party”.

The cost to Scotland of being under Westminster control and at the mercy of a Tory civil war has never been clearer. The prime minister cannot – and must not – use this result to support her claim that the choice is now between her bad Brexit and a catastrophic no-deal Brexit.

And Sturgeon said her party would “support any second EU referendum which has remain as an option”.

Our priority is to do all we can to stop the UK Government dragging Scotland off the Brexit cliff-edge, which is set to do so much damage to jobs, communities and living standards.

Responding to the vote, the Lib Dem leader, Vince Cable, has said:

Having seen the Conservative backbenches will not support her deal, the prime minister must change course.

Her deal is doomed to defeat in the Commons, so she should show real leadership by putting this question back to the public in a people’s vote.

The EU is clear that there is no more negotiating to do, so it’s this deal or no Brexit. That is the choice on which every voter should now have a final say – and Liberal Democrats will campaign vigorously for the UK to remain a full member of the EU.

Updated

A minor point but one that’s been getting a bit of attention today and which Jacob Rees-Mogg has sought to clarify: His use of the phrase “on the payroll” in reference to his government colleagues is not, he says, perjorative. He told Sky News earlier:

They’re known colloquially as the payroll. That doesn’t mean that the pay is influencing their decision. What it means is that, if they are in government, they have to support the prime minister or resign.

Updated

The prisons minister, Rory Stewart, said there were “no surprises” in the result.

Nobody wants to see divisions in the party, nobody wants to see splits. But it is a comfortable majority for the prime minister and, from my point of view, the important thing is that in a secret ballot, with no pressure on anybody, people have voted by a comfortable majority for the prime minster’s deal. And that’s a very good starting point to take forward into Europe.

He said calls for May to resign were “completely absurd”, saying:

The people that are saying she would resign are the people who two hours ago were saying she was going to lose the vote – it doesn’t seem to me they are very good at acknowledging the results of democratic votes.

Some more reaction coming in from senior Tories, who are backing the prime minister:

There is a very subtle difference in the language being employed by some cabinet members to that being used by others. Some are not explicitly backing May as leader, but are echoing her sentiment that the government should now “get on with the job”. Others are explicitly backing her.

But, as the Sun’s political editor Tom Newton-Dunn points out, the important split that’s forming is the one among those who oppose May as leader:

Nadine Dorries, who has also been a prominent critic of the prime minister’s Brexit plan, is another to strike a concoliatory tone, saying she will “respect the result” of the leadership vote.

The PM has secured the confidence of the parliamentary party tonight. It’s not the way I voted. However, I will fully respect the result.

Will Quince, who quit as a ministerial aide at the weekend over May’s Brexit plan, said it was now “time to unite and get on and deliver Brexit”.

I look forward to the EU withdrawal agreement coming before the Commons in the new year but, importantly, with the legally binding solution that will make the backstop temporary.

Updated

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of a hard-Brexit supporting backbench group and an ardent critic of Theresa May, has been comparing the her position to that of Margaret Thatcher, who won a confidence vote but resigned as prime minister shortly afterwards. He told Sky News:

I think we have a choice: Either she behaves like Margaret Thatcher ... or she behaves like John Major and leads the Conservative party to a terrible defeat. Those are the choices facing her and the party...

But he appeared to offer his terms to May when asked whether there was “no prospect” of him ever supporting her EU withdrawal plan. He said:

Well, not unless she can get rid of the backstop. If she can take the backstop out, there are bits of the withdrawal agreement I don’t like, but I’m willing to compromise.

The home secretary, Sajid Javid, is the latest cabinet minister to tweet in support of the prime minister:

His Conservative colleague Andrew Bridgen, however, says his party has “missed an opportunity” by not getting rid of Theresa May.

Speaking outside parliament, the North West Leicestershire MP, said: “The withdrawal agreement is, politically, dead.”

Updated

Here’s the full transcript of the short speech Theresa May has just given outside No 10:

This has been a long and challneging day. But, at the end of it, I’m pleased to have received the backing of my colleagues in tonight’s ballot. Whilst I’m grateful for that support, a significant number of colleagues did cast a vote against me and I have listened to what they said.

Following this ballot, we now need to get on with the job of delivering Brexit for the British people and building a better future for this country – a Brexit that delivers on the vote that people gave, that brings back control of our money, our borders and our laws, that protects jobs, security and the union [and] that brings the country back together, rather than entrenching division. That must start here in Westminster with politicians on all sides coming together and acting in the national interest.

For my part, I have heard what the House of Commons said about the Northern Ireland backstop and, when I go to the European council tomorrow, I will be seeking legal and political assurances that will assuage the concerns that members of parliament have on that issue.

But, while delivering Brexit is important, we also need to focus on the other issues that people feel are vital to them, that matter to them to day to day – the issues that we came into politics to deal with. Building a stronger economy, delivering first-class public services, building the homes that families need. We owe it to the people who put us here to put their priorities first.

So, here is our renewed mission: Delivering the Brexit that people voted for, bringing the country back together and building a country that truly works for everyone.

She ignored a shouted question about whether or not she would actually be able to get her Brexit deal through parliament – something her own hard-Brexit supporting MPs are openly predicting she will fail to do.

Updated

What does result mean for May? Verdict from Twitter commentariat

This is what political journalists and commentators are saying about what the result means for Theresa May.

From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

From ITV’s Robert Peston

From Sky’s Lewis Goodall

From the New Statesman’s George Eaton

From the Sun’s Nick Gutteridge

From the Daily Mirror’s Pippa Crerar

From the New Statesman’s Jason Cowley

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

From ITV’s Chris Ship

That is all from me.

My colleague Kevin Rawlinson is now taking over.

May vows to get on with job after winning confidence vote

Theresa May has just been speaking outside Downing Street. She acknowledged that a “significant number” of her MPs voted against her and says she is listening to them. But, she said, she is going to get on with Brexit.

And May adopted the language Corbyn has used in recent days – highlighting that Brexit is not the only issue that faces the UK.

Updated

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the ERG, who led the push for a confidence vote, says he accepts the result, but that Theresa May should resign.

Updated

From Philip Hammond, the chancellor

Andrew Bridgen, one of May’s most vocal critics, says the party has just “kicked the can down the road”.

Theresa May got 63% of the votes. That is less than the 66% that John Major got in 1995, when he triggered a leadership contest as prime minister and ended up fighting a contest against John Redwood (although that was a leadership election, not a confidence ballot).

Updated

Corbyn challenges May to call Brexit vote next week

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, has put out a statement about the result. He says:

Tonight’s vote makes no difference to the lives of our people.

The prime minister has lost her majority in parliament, her government is in chaos and she is unable to deliver a Brexit deal that works for the country and puts jobs and the economy first.

That’s why she pulled the vote on her botched Brexit deal this week and is trying to avoid bringing it back to parliament. It’s clear that she has not been able to negotiate the necessary changes in Europe.

She must now bring her dismal deal back to the House of Commons next week so parliament can take back control.

Labour is ready to govern for the whole country and deliver a deal that protects living standards and workers’ rights.

Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, has just told BBC News that this is a “strong vote of support” for May. She got more votes than she did in the 2016 leadership election, he says. (See 8.05pm.)

May wins confidence ballot by 200 votes to 117

Sir Graham Brady is here. He is standing at end with the podium, surrounded by other members of the 1922 Committee.

He announces the result.

The result of the ballot this evening is that the parliamentary party does have confidence in ...

And at that point we could not hear the rest, because of the cheering.

Here are the results.

For May: 200

Against May: 117

Updated

Theresa May has won a confidence vote in her leadership of the Tory party

Theresa May has won a confidence vote in her leadership of the Tory party by 200 to 117.

A majority of Conservative MPs backed her in a secret ballot after the prime minister signalled she would step down before the 2022 election.

Updated

The Telegraph’s Steven Swinford says May’s critics are not giving up.

... Unlike Mark Francois, a leading figure in the European Research Group, who is also here and looking a bit glum.

Updated

We might get a better picture soon. The Foreign Office minister Alan Duncan has just stood on a desk to taking a photograph of the waiting journalists. He is in a very jovial mood.

From the FT’s Jim Pickard

From my colleague Dan Sabbagh

It looks as if Theresa May will deliver a statement too.

We have now been admitted into committee room 14. It is the largest committee room in the building, and it is laid out like a mini debating chamber. On one side, there are deep windows overlooking the Thames and there are rows of benches, three rows on each side, facing each other. There is a raised bit at one end for the committee chair, and five rows of seats at the other end for the press and public.

There are about 60 more reporters here, and they have parked us mostly in the seats at the “public gallery” end. A handful of Conservative MP are at the other end, where a single camera has been set up to film Sir Graham Brady announce the result.

Updated

Two workmen have just walked past, in overalls and carrying what looked like paint. What is not often appreciated outside this building is how it has become a permanent building site. It’s falling to pieces (literally).

The Irish PM, Leo Varadkar, and the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, have insisted that the withdrawal agreement “cannot be reopened or contradicted”. As the Press Association reports, the pair spoke by telephone on Wednesday evening and an Irish government spokesman said “both agreed that the withdrawal agreement is a balanced compromise and the best outcome available”. He went on:

While they agreed to work to provide reassurance to the UK, the agreement cannot be reopened or contradicted.

Updated

In the absence of facts, you get ... speculation.

Here are some of the result estimates doing the round.

From Jonathan Isaby, editor of BrexitCentral

From assorted lobby journalists

Updated

Theresa May has arrived back in Downing Street. She is not going to be in committee room 14 to hear the result in person.

Theresa May arrives back in Downing Street, following a confidence vote on her leadership.
Theresa May arrives back in Downing Street, following a confidence vote on her leadership. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter, said Theresa May had notably “hedged her bets” on whether she might stay on long enough if not ousted to fight the next election. Speaking after the 1922 Committee meeting earlier, he said:

She said that in her heart she would like to fight the 2022 election, but that she recognised the party did not want her to, and therefore it was not her intention to.

But the word ‘intention’ is a classic politician’s words, because intentions can change. She didn’t say, ‘I will not be the leader in 2022,’ she said it was not her intention.

She was asked, if there was an election within the next year, would you stand down, and she mumbled.

Rees-Mogg sought to play down the impact of a narrow May victory.

If you look at the payroll – ministers, PPSs, trade envoys, deputy chairmen of the party – she needs to carry more than half of the genuine backbenchers. If she doesn’t, that shows that the only people really supporting her are people who receive the Queen’s shilling.

Updated

It should not take long to count 317 ballot papers, but we’ve been told we won’t get the result until 9pm.

This is from Sky’s Beth Rigby.

That is a reference to the last ballot in 2016. But in that round May had two opponents - Andrea Leadsom, who got 84 votes, and Michael Gove, who got 46.

Counting starts

Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, has arrived for the count.

They are going to let the journalists into the room for the result. Colleagues are queueing up already.

Updated

The Telegraph’s Christopher Hope reveals that different sources say different things ... (See 7.47pm.)

Gavin Williamson comes past. He went in to vote a few minutes ago.

I’m back in the committee corridor in the Commons, and we’ve got about five minutes to go before the ballot closes. I can’t see any MPs rushing to vote, but there are 50 plus journalists here.

This is from the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope.

Updated

DUP demands 'fundamental legal text changes' to Brexit withdrawal agreement

Theresa May met the DUP leader, Arlene Foster, and her deputy, Nigel Dodds, earlier this evening. Afterwards Foster said the DUP was demanding “fundamental legal text changes” to the withdrawal agreement. She said:

We emphasised that tinkering around the edges would not work.

We were not seeking assurances or promises. We wanted fundamental legal text changes.

EU leaders have repeatedly said that they are not willing to change the withdrawal agreement in this way.

Updated

How to decide what amounts to good result for May

Following the decision to restore the whip to Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths, there are now 317 Conservative MPs.

The BBC has counted 187 Tory MPs saying they will vote for Theresa May. The Telegraph has got 174 in that category, and we got to the tally up to 169.

But relatively few MPs have said publicly that they will vote against May. The BBC list has got the most names, but only 35.

Given that, in the era of Twitter, it is very easy for MPs to declare publicly that they are backing May, these figures suggest that there are around 100 odd MPs who could have explicitly said they will support May but have chosen not to. Even if every MP who has said they will vote for May does vote for her (which is unlikely), there is a pool of around 130/140 votes that could easily be hostile.

As is usually the case in these elections, both sides have been playing expectation management. Here are some of the figures being discussed.

80 MPs vote against May

The Brexiters have been claiming that this would amount to an acceptable result for them, and a bad result for her. This is from the Mail’s Jack Doyle.

But 80 is not much bigger than the European Research Group core, which is normally put at around 50 or 60. (They are coy about their membership, and so a precise figure is not available.)

Sky’s Beth Rigby says the May team would be happy with a result like this.

100 MPs vote against May

Given that there are likely to be some spoilt ballot papers, if the anti-May vote is at this level, then her vote will be close to or below 200 - which could turn out to be a psychologically comforting number.

This would still be a comfortable win, but it would be hard to present this a triumph. One precedent for tonight’s vote is the Conservative leadership contest in 1995, when John Major unexpectedly called a contest and John Redwood stood against him. Major got 218 votes (66%) and Redwood 89 (27%). Tonight’s ballot is a confidence vote, not a leadership contest, but the numbers might fall in similar ways. If May’s critics get more than 86 votes tonight, they will be doing better than Redwood in 1995. On the night that was seen as a clear victory for Major, but for the rest of his premiership his authority was diminished. “Weaker than John Major” is not a label any PM would covet.

130 MPs vote against May

It will be hard to present this as anything other than a very bad result for May, although she will still be the clear winner, and will be able to remain as PM. Here is Robert Peston’s take.

159 MPs vote against May

This is the number that would mean May has lost, assuming every Conservative MP votes (which they probably won’t). At this point the party is looking for a new leader.

This is from the Telegraph’s Camilla Tominey.

This is from the Mail’s Jack Doyle.

David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, refused to say how he had voted as he left the committee room.

And Charlie Elphicke also refused to say how he had voted, although he said he was pleased to have the Tory party whip restored.

But Sarah Wollaston, a pro-European who wants Theresa May to agree to a second referendum, posted a picture of her ballot paper on Twitter to show she was supporting May.

This is from the BBC’s Nick Eardley.

This is from Channel 4 News’ Michael Crick.

May rules out leading Tories into 2022 general election

Piecing together the various accounts of what Theresa May told the 1922 Committee, it is now becoming clear what she said. But it has taken a while. (“Typical May,” a colleague says. “She tries to deliver a message, but no one can agree what she said.”)

May told MPs clearly that she would not fight the general election in 2022. Because she has repeatedly ruled out calling a snap general election, in her mind this is the next general election.

As for what might happen if there were an election before 2022, on that she was non-committal. An MP in the room said she made the point that she would then be asked to commit to standing down in 2021, or in 2020, or even next year.

So, if there were to be an early election, it is possible she could still seek to lead her party into it.

But the commitment to go before a 2022 election did make an impact, the MP said. “It was much more clear than the briefing you guys were given earlier,” he said. “It did make a difference.”

Updated

It is becoming clear that, when Theresa May said she would not fight the next general election, there was a bit of wriggle room in her pledge. These are from ITV’s Robert Peston.

From the Conservative MP Bob Seely

From the Conservative MP Robert Halfon.

Tory MPs start voting in confidence ballot on May's leadership

The corridor is starting to thin out a bit, but this is also where MPs will come to vote, and the ballot is about to open.

Updated

This is from George Freeman MP.

Jacob Rees-Mogg clearly does not trust the PM’s promise to stand down before the election.

A quote from Margot James MP.

Another MP came out saying Theresa May understands now she has to get a Brexit deal that is acceptable to the DUP.

More from the meeting.

The corridor is now rammed. I didn’t see the PM as she came out (I’m on a bench with a laptop on my knee), but she looked happier than when she went in, according to the Spectator’s James Forsyth.

“It was very emotional,” another MP says on the way out. “She has devoted her life to the party.”

Updated

Julian Smith, the chief whip, comes out. Asked how it went, he said: “Very positive.” Or a source close to the chief whip said it was “very positive”. It is not always clear what the sourcing conventions are on these occasions.

Updated

Loud banging is coming from the committee room now. And some cheers. That’s a sign it’s over.

I’ve come down to the committee corridor in the Commons, where dozens of journalists are congregated outside committee room 14. The 1922 Committee meeting is still going on, but from time to time MPs come out. A few have been talking to reporters, but it is more normal for them to march off as quickly as possible.

Journalists are also picking up information from inside the room via text messages.

And some more 1922 Committee snippets.

More from journalists who are picking up what is being said at the 1922 Committee.

James Cleverly, the Conservative deputy chairman, has been speaking to journalists outside the committee room.

Other journalists are picking up the same news. The Mail’s Jason Groves has a direct quote.

May 'tells Tory MPs she won't fight next election'

This is from the Sunday Times’s Tim Shipman, who had the scoop last Sunday about May planning to abandon the Brexit vote.

Updated

Labour MPs have reacted angrily to the news that the Conservatives have restored the whip to Andrew Griffiths, the MP who sent explicit texts to two young women.

This is from Dawn Butler, the shadow women and equalities minister.

How can Theresa May call herself a feminist when she lets an MP who was suspended for sexual harassment back into the Conservative Party to vote for her in the leadership challenge? This is a betrayal of women.

And this is from the Labour MP Jess Phillips.

They said it would be different. They said we won’t let patronage and power change our minds where wrongdoing occurred. They said we won’t protect our mates. They lied, they all lied. Same old same old.

More from the 1922 Committee. These are from journalists outside the room.

Theresa May arrives at 1922 Committee

Tory MPs are arriving in the committee room where Theresa May will address the 1922 Committee.

The Conservative MP Johnny Mercer, who recently described the government has a “shitshow” (he has obviously not yet heard the new Scots terminology - see 4.36pm), has recorded a video saying he will decide how to vote after listening to Theresa May at the 1922 Committee.

But he says some of what is happening at Westminster is “pretty shocking”. And he accuses colleagues of being two-faced. He explains:

I am concerned today to see cabinet minister who I know are simultaneously phoning around for support for their campaigns at the same time eviscerating colleagues who may wish to think the prime minister doesn’t hold the future for them.

Updated

Another question from a reader.

User avatar for elscollonsdelgos

If May wins, does that suggest a vote for her deal? Because if later the deal is rejected, what's the point of her staying?

There is a very strong overlap between MPs voting against her tonight and MPs who say they will vote against her deal. But it is not an exact overlap. For example, our list of how MPs will vote on the deal has Heidi Allen down to vote against. But our list of how MPs will vote tonight has her down voting for Theresa May.

Another point to make is that, if 80 Tory MPs vote against her deal, then she loses that vote badly. But if 80 vote against her tonight, and everyone else votes in favour, that will look like a half-decent win.

For MPs like Allen, who dislike the deal but want to keep May, the logic is - she’s better than any of the alternatives.

Updated

There are now 160 Tory MPs who have gone on the record to say they will vote for Theresa May, my colleague Matthew Weaver reports.

As the weeks, months and years roll on, it becomes increasingly difficult to alight on fresh turns of phrase to describe to ongoing calamity that is Brexit.

Thanks be then for “clusterbùrach, the onomatopoeic descriptive now taking hold at Holyrood and beyond, most recently referenced by the Scottish government’s Michael Russell in his latest Brexit update to the chamber on Wednesday afternoon.

The phrase is a compression of “clusterfuck” and the Gaelic word “bùrach”, meaning “mess”, and has been doing the rounds on Twitter, in newsprint, in the Scottish parliament and yesterday in the Commons itself, courtesy of SNP MP Hannah Bardell.

It was coined, according to Russell, by the Gaelic scholar Hugh Dan MacLennan. As with all great phrasing, there is some disagreement over its parentage, with Times Scotland columnist Kenny Farquharson recalling that he dreamt it up earlier in the year. If only that were the worst thing folk had to argue about right now ...

Updated

Scotland’s Brexit secretary Michael Russell has addressed the Holyrood chamber earlier, in a statement that had been initially scheduled as his official response to yesterday’s now-postponed vote on May’s Brexit deal.

Describing the prime minister’s behaviour around the meaningful vote as “disgraceful and contemptuous”, Russell went on to commend to the chamber Monday’s ruling from the European court of justice on article 50, and its implications for a second referendum with the option of continued EU membership on the ballot. He said:

With that certainty in place [that the UK parliament can revoke Article 50 unilaterally], putting the choice back in the hands of the people must now be taken seriously.

This might raise eyebrows amongst those who previously heard senior Scottish government figures privately dismissing the article 50 case, which was led by six Scottish politicians, as a foolhardy pursuit. The six included the SNP MP Joanna Cherry who, according to a column by former SNP MP Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, “came under substantial pressure from people who should have known a great deal better to drop her involvement in the case”.

Russell ended with an inevitable nod to a potential second independence referendum, warning that “if we can’t find a way to save the UK from itself then we must find a way to save Scotland from the UK”.

Ireland’s opposition leader has warned that the country’s economy was in “heightened danger” because of a “fundamentalist fringe” in the Tory party.

In a rare break in the unified front in Irish Brexit politics, Micheál Martin, has warned that “Ireland is nowhere near ready for many of the outcomes which have become far more likely in recent days” including no deal.

But the Fianna Fail leader, whose party are propping up taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s minority government, pulled back from triggering a general election process arguing that it was not in the national interest during such precarious times.

Announcing he would be extending the confidence and supply agreement with the Fine Gael party, Martin warned the chaos in Britain would “not be allowed to spread to Ireland”. He said today’s no-confidence vote in London was the result of a “fundamentalist group” in the Conservative party who “seem to be determined to destroy all around them rather than ever compromise”. He went on:

Their extreme Europhobia has developed over forty years and it will not respond to evidence or reason.

Two suspended Tories have whip restored to allow them to take part in no confidence vote

Both Tory MPs who have had the whip removed are having it restored to allow them to vote tonight, ITV’s Robert Peston reports.

Charlie Elphicke was suspended over alleged sexual offences, which he denies.

And Andrew Griffiths was suspended for sending sexually explicit text message to two much younger women.

May secures majority in public declarations

Another 10 MPs have publicly declared they will be backing May in the vote, taking her running total to 160. If they all vote the same way in private as they have declared in public May will coast it.

Here’s the latest batch:

Christopher Pincher “We need to let her get on with a solution to the backstop and finish the job”

Mike Freer “She continues to have my unqualified support”

Roger Gale “She has my fullest support and the support, I believe, of a clear majority of my colleagues”

Chris Grayling told PA: “Theresa May is the best person to make sure we actually leave the EU and deliver on the Brexit that I and the people of our great country voted for.”

Jeremy Wright told PA: “She deserves that support but also because the country does not need this distraction right now”.

Claire Perry “Today’s leadership challenge is a silly act of self-indulgence by those who want to risk no deal or n o Brexit”

Karen Bradley “I will be voting for the prime minister”

Maggie Throup “The prime ,inister has, and will continue to have my full support”

Stephen Kerr “She has shown herself to be a pragmatic and sensible leader who has put the country first. She has my full confidence”

Gareth Johnson “I don’t believe changing the prime minister now whilst she is making efforts to improve the deal is the best approach”

Updated

Fox suggests cabinet might oppose MPs getting vote on Brexit deal without changes to backstop

On the BBC earlier Liam Fox, the Brexiter international trade secretary, suggested the cabinet might oppose Theresa May’s Brexit deal being put to a vote in the Commons without changes to the backstop. As the Express reports, asked if he could accept it without changes to the backstop, Fox replied:

I think it is very difficult to support the deal if we don’t get changes to the backstop.

I don’t think we will get through. I’m not even sure if the cabinet will agree for it to be put to the House of Commons.

Alert readers will remember that Fox and other members of the cabinet have agreed to support the deal already, at that five-hour meeting in November. Fox seems to want the chance to think again.

Updated

This is from the BBC’s Chris Doidge.

And here is the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush on implications of this.

The European parliament has issued a statement today saying that the backstop cannot be renegotiated and that the parliament will not approve any withdrawal agreement that does not include one. Here’s an extract from the statement, which has come from the parliaments’s “conference of presidents”, its governing committee.

The conference ... stressed that renegotiating the backstop was not possible since it is the guarantee that in whatever circumstances there could be no hardening of the border on the island of Ireland. The conference reiterated that without a backstop parliament would not give its consent to the withdrawal agreement.

The tally of Conservative MPs who have now publicly said they are backing Theresa May has now reached 151, according to my colleague Matthew Weaver.

This is from the Spectator’s James Forsyth.

Another good question.

User avatar for M G

Andrew - when May wins tonight, she will be safe for a year. The Tories have promised a meaningful vote, but have reneged on this already. They have also said that there is no technical requirement for a meaningful vote, as a deal has been made.

So, what's to stop her reneging again, and simply refusing to have the vote, once her position is safe for 12 months?

Under Conservative party rules, if Theresa May wins tonight, MPs cannot use the 48 letters ruse to trigger a no confidence vote for another 12 months.

But:

A) She is still vulnerable to a vote of no confidence in the government. If she were to lose one of these (which seems unlikely in the foreseeable future, but by no means impossible, especially if the DUP were to flip), she would have to go. And ...

B) Whatever the rules say, if a party leader loses the confidence of their colleagues, normally they do get forced out. If May were to do something her party found egregious, you could imagine the cabinet forcing her out.

Re the “meaningful vote”, you’re right. Now that the government has declared that a deal with the EU has been reached, the “meaningful vote” procedure won’t kick in until the government has lost a vote on the deal - and that could be delayed until late March.

But two ministers said in the Commons yesterday that, regardless of the letter of the law (the EU Withdrawal Act), they would abide by its spirit, and hold the vote by 21 January. May could choose to break this promise, but politicians never particularly like doing that because it is embarrassing.

Updated

Another 14 MPs have emerge to publicly state they will be backing May taking the running total to 150.

Here’s the latest batch:

Updated

On BBC News a few minutes ago Sir Bernard Jenkin, the Tory Brexiter, said there was something “Orwellian” about being called an “extremist” by Philip Hammond, the chancellor. (See 1.56pm.) Jenkin said:

It is odd, isn’t it, that 52% of the country voted leave, and we put in our manifesto that we should leave the customs union, that we should leave the single market, take back control of our laws. Now we are faced with an agreement that doesn’t deliver these things. And we are called the extremists. It’s an Orwellian world we are living in, isn’t it?

I thought that once we had won the referendum, we would be accepted as the mainstream. The problem we’ve got is, even though some 400 constituencies voted leave, so many of their members of parliament who say they represent are not happily supporting leave. They are trying to frustrate the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. That has got very big consequences for our democracy.

"Madness' has descended on Tory party, says new Welsh first minister

The new first minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, has said that the Conservative party is gripped by “madness”. Speaking in the Welsh assembly, where he has become first minister after replacing Carwyn Jones as Labour’s leader in Wales, Drakeford said:

When I was elected as leader of the Labour party [in Wales] last week I said I wanted to be a beacon of hope in a darkening world. Today is not a moment for partisan remarks but the skies around us have darkened even further in the days which have followed.

A species of madness has descended on the Conservative party in which significant numbers of its members of parliament appear to believe that our country’s future is better secured by heaping a leadership contest on to the burning platform that Brexit has become.

Mark Drakeford, the new first minister of Wales
Mark Drakeford, the new first minister of Wales Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

Updated

The Conservative Brexiter Sir Bernard Jenkin has just told BBC News that he “agonised” about whether to submit a letter calling for a no confidence vote and only submitted his letter yesterday.

And here’s another reader question.

User avatar for theunknownknown

If the will exists amongst MPs, could a cross party coalition of MPs with sufficient numbers form a 'national unity government' and take back control?

Only by passing a motion of no confidence in the government, which the leader of the opposition would have to table.

Then May would stay as PM until she was in a position to advise the Queen who she should appoint as her successor. At this point the rules are fuzzy, but the alternatives would be a) a new Tory leader, or b) Jeremy Corbyn, if he could persuade the palace that he had enough votes to win a confidence vote within 14 days.

If no one can form a new government and win a confidence vote, there is an election.

Conceivably Amber Rudd, or Hilary Benn, or Vince Cable (or even Corbyn) could rustle up a cross-party coalition that would pass a confidence vote in a government of national unity, but it does not seem very likely at all.

If it were to happen, it would probably involve most of Labour, the Tory mainstream, and a deal to pass a Norway-style Brexit, plus an agreement to call an election once that’s done. David Lidington as PM, and Corbyn as deputy PM? But I’m probably getting well into fantasy here ....

Updated

If it all goes wrong for Theresa May tonight, Ed Miliband has some helpful career advice ...

Another answer to a question from a reader.

User avatar for n1CKed

Is it now not possible for Labour to push for a no-confidence vote? Surely that would be "no confidence" in the government, rather than the leader of the Tory party? How does it usually work and what are the likely routes the opposition might take? Yes - I know we are probably in uncharted waters.

It is easy for Labour to trigger a no confidence debate. They just table a motion of no confidence, and by convention it has to be debated fairly soon, if it is from the leader of the official opposition. Other opposition parties can table no confidence motions, but they do not have to be debated.

What’s holding Labour back is not that this would be difficult to do; it is that the government would probably win (and Jeremy Corbyn would then be under pressure to actively back a second referendum, but that’s another issue.)

It is a mistake to think that Tory MPs who would back a no confidence motion in Theresa May as PM would back a no confidence motion in the government. They won’t. They want a Tory government - just under a different leader.

Updated

Michael Gove, the environment secretary, has said he expected Theresa May to win the vote “handsomely”. He said:

I think the prime minister will win tonight and she will win handsomely. I regret that a leadership contest has been triggered, but I respect my colleagues.

I know that everyone’s made their decision after careful thought.

The one thing I would ask every Conservative MP to do is to ponder before they cast their vote this evening: If we don’t support the prime minister, then we risk derailing or diluting Brexit.

If we do support the prime minister we can honour the mandate that the British people have given us.

It is notable that the language Gove, a Brexiter, is using about the MPs who have triggered the no confidence vote is notably more conciliatory than the language used by Philip Hammond, the remain-voting chancellor. (See 1.56pm.)

Michael Gove talking to the media in Westminster today.
Michael Gove talking to the media in Westminster today. Photograph: Jack Taylor/Getty Images

Updated

This is from Hugh Bennett, from the Guido Fawkes website.

My colleague Matthew Weaver, who has been tracking the statements that Tory MPs have been making on Twitter about how they will vote tonight, says 137 of them have now declared for the prime minister.

And he puts the number of Tory MPs who have publicly declared against May at 28.

Hammond says MPs trying to remove May are 'extremists' pushing for no-deal Brexit

Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has described those Tories trying to remove Theresa May as “extremists” pushing for a no-deal Brexit. He told Sky News:

I’m very clear that the prime minister will have the support of the great majority of parliamentary colleagues. And I think what this vote today will do is flush out the extremists who are trying to advance a particular agenda which would really not be in the interests of the British people or the British economy. Leaving the European Union without a deal would be bad for Britain.

Philip Hammond
Philip Hammond Photograph: Sky News

Since our last update another 15 Tory MPs have declared they will be voting for May tonight taking the running total to 136 (and counting). She needs just 22 more to win.

Here’s the latest batch:

Can we expect an intervention by the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, later today?

The Irish PM, Leo Varadkar, revealed in the Dáil that he would be talking to him to discuss what assurances he can give May. He said:

I’ll be taking a call with President Juncker later on today to see what assurances we can give the United Kingdom parliament that might assist them to ratify the withdrawal agreement.

He reiterated however that the substance of the deal could not be changed “including the substance of the protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland”.

Updated

Another question.

User avatar for Nathan Evans

Hello Andrew, Is this vote secret? If it is do you think that will effect the result?

Yes, more or less. See 10.30am for more.

At the post PMQs briefing, asked how Theresa May was dealing with the stress, the Downing Street source said:

A lot of people have talked about her resilience in different situations and I think we have seen that again today. As ever, she is determined and focused.

The Conservative MP Simon Hart has described the decision by some of his colleagues to trigger a no confidence vote in Theresa May as “vengeful”. He said:

It looks self-indulgent, it looks vengeful and it doesn’t actually improve the chances of delivering the sort of Brexit that we’re all keen to deliver next March.

I think it’s a really strange time to be trying to depose somebody right at the final stages of the most complicated negotiations the country’s ever been involved with.

It seems to me the only people who will benefit from this are people we’re trying to negotiate with in Brussels who will see this as an opportunity to drop any pretence of cooperation.

Updated

A last-minute BBC News special has been announced for Wednesday evening on BBC One, with the result and reaction to the confidence vote in Theresa May. As the Press Association reports, the programme, titled May Leadership Challenge, will be hosted by Andrew Neil. It will air from 7.30pm until 9pm. The One Show, which is scheduled from 7pm to 8pm, will end early and the previously scheduled 8pm broadcast of Shop Well for Less will be replaced by the news programme.

Sir Graham Brady said earlier that the result would be released before 9pm. But journalists expect it well before then. The ballot closes at 8pm, and it does not take long to count 315 ballot papers.

Updated

Another question from a reader.

User avatar for 4danglier

Hi Andrew and Ed. This is a good idea. I wish it hadn't met with so many facetious responses. Anyway, a question.

In the case that the Tories vote one of the hard brexiteers as leader, what probability would you give to Labour winning a vote of no confidence?

And what about in the alternative case that May survives?

If May survives, it will depend on whether she passes her Brexit deal, or whether we drift towards a no-deal Brexit. If her deal does go through, then the DUP has signalled it could pull the plug on the confidence and supply agreement. If the DUP and all the opposition parties vote against the Tories, the Tories lose.

With Boris Johnson as Tory leader pursuing a very hard Brexit, you imagine a handful of MPs quitting the party, and perhaps voting with Labour in a confidence motion. But Johnson is about the only likely leader who would split the party like that, and his chances of winning are probably over-rated.

And we are only talking about a handful of MPs anyway. To vote against your own party in a confidence motion would be a very, very big deal.

Overall, Labour winning a no confidence motion comes quite near the bottom of my list of likely Brexit eventualities.

The Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, who is on maternity leave after giving birth to her first child at the end of October, has tweeted her support for Theresa May, describing her as having “cojones of steel”.

This is Davidson’s first intervention since her leave began: she has been a consistent supporter of the prime minister throughout the Brexit process, despite being a passionate remainer. In September, she told the Guardian of her “great sadness” that the Irish border question had not been better discussed during the EU referendum campaign.

Updated

Here is more from the No 10 briefing. A Downing Street source told journalists:

[Theresa May] is fighting for every vote. We have seen support from across the parliamentary party this morning but there is a lot more to do this afternoon.

This vote isn’t about who leads the party into the next election, it is about whether it makes sense to change leader at this point in the Brexit process …

She has said on a number of occasions – in fact, she said immediately after the last election in 2017 – that she would serve as long as her colleagues want her to.

She believes it is her duty to serve as long as the party wants her to.

The source also said he was “not aware” of any plans by May to give Tory colleagues a date for her departure as PM or Conservative leader.

Updated

No 10 seeks to boost support for May by hinting she will stand aside before general election if she wins vote

This is from my colleague Heather Stewart, who has been at the post-PMQs lobby briefing.

(That rather backs up the point I was making a moment ago - see 1.01pm.)

Updated

PMQs - Snap verdict

PMQs - Snap verdict: Some of the most famous footage of Margaret Thatcher in the House of Commons is from the speech she gave in the no confidence vote as she was stepping down. (It was the one where Dennis Skinner suggested she should be be governor of the European Central Bank, and Thatcher said at one point: “I’m enjoying this.”) It was a virtuoso performance, loudly cheered by Tory MPs – the same Tory MPs who had just voted her out of office (by not backing her in large enough numbers). Theresa May’s performance today wasn’t quite in the same league, but there were some similarities: a slightly swaggering performance at the despatch box, enthusiastic cheering from the government benches, and a striking disconnect between the public performance and the actual reality. (At least when Labour MPs were trying to boot Jeremy Corbyn out, they were honest enough not to cheer him in the House of Commons; they can’t match the Tories in duplicity.) It was a good performance from May, which will help her with the only audience that really matters today (the 315 Tory MPs voting tonight), although not one for the history books. Corbyn would have done better if he had focused on some difficult, “wedge” questions that would have caused problems for May with Tory MPs still weighing up how to vote. Like, ‘Are you 100% committed to lead your party into the next general election?’ There was one question of this kind, when Corbyn asked May to rule out a no-deal Brexit, but it wouldn’t have been hard to produce more. (The question about Priti Patel from Jim McMahon was another good example; that provoked an answer that will annoy the ERG.) Corbyn seemed more angry than usual, and the points he made about how outrageous it is that May will not even put her Brexit deal to a vote were entirely reasonable. But it felt like an argument for another day.

Updated

The BBC’s Andrew Neil says BBC research shows that more than 158 Tory MPs – the threshold – have said they will vote for Theresa May.

But he points out that just because MPs says they will vote for May, that does not necessarily mean they will.

Updated

Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, asks what is worse: a no confidence motion tabled by Corbyn, or one tabled by her MPs?

May says what matters is to get a good deal.

And that’s it.

Updated

Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, says the Times today argues that a people’s vote is May’s only chance of saving her deal. What is May afraid of?

May says people voted for Brexit. The Commons needs to deliver on it.

Updated

Labour’s Rachael Maskell says the recent fall in the value of the pound has cost the country the equivalent of funding for the NHS for six weeks.

May says the government is putting more money into the NHS.

Updated

Jim McMahon asks May to condemn any suggestion that the threat of food shortages in Ireland should be used as a negotiating strategy in the Brexit talks.

This is a reference to a comment from the Tory Brexiter Priti Patel.

May agrees. She says that will not be a government tactic.

Updated

Sir David Evennett, a Conservative, asks if May is affected by the rising cost of Crossrail. He blames TfL and the Labour mayor of London.

May says she is concerned. Her Maidenhead constituency is affected. Sadiq Khan “needs to get his finger out”, she says.

Labour’s Colleen Fletcher asks about a teenager killed in a knife attack on her constituency. Does May think we have enough police on the streets.

May extend her condolences to the family. There is a concern about the rise in violent crime, she says

Maggie Throup, a Conservative, says the real threat to the country is Labour. May agrees.

Sir Patrick McLoughlin, the Conservative former chairman, says no one questioned the result of the referendum on Welsh devolution in 1997 even though winning margin was very narrow.

May says that is an important point.

Labour’s Mary Creagh says the economy is stalling and business investment is falling. She says we have the “grotesque spectacle” of Tory MPs putting party interest ahead of the national interest. If May wins the vote tonight, will she rule out no deal?

May says the way to avoid no deal is to agree a deal.

Employment is at a record high, and we have had the longest consecutive period of growth in the G7, she says.

Updated

Labour’s Siobhain McDonagh asks about a constituent who had to queue outside A&E because it was full.

May says this is a worrying story. She reminds McDonagh that they sat on Merton council together.

Ken Clarke, the former Tory chancellor, asks if May can think of anything more unhelpful to the country at a time of crisis than for the Conservative party to embark on a leadership contest lasting weeks.

May says Clarke has raised an important point. She says a new leader would have to either delay or stop Brexit.

Catherine West, the Labour MP, asks which is worse: no deal or no Brexit.

May says it is important to deliver on Brexit. She wants a deal, she says. The worse thing for the country would be a Labour government, she says.

May says, although Corbyn claims to be interested in small businesses, Labour councils do the opposite.

Labour’s Matthew Pennycook asks which of her Brexit misjudgments she most regrets: laying down unreasonable red lines, holding an election, or letting her policy be set by Brexiters.

May defends her record.

Ranil Jayawardena, a Conservative, asks about a survey saying expectant mothers need better care to avert still births.

May says this is an important issue. She rattles of a list of things the government is doing.

Ellie Reeves, the Labour MP, says May’s deal is doomed. Her party do not have confidence in her. But will she let the people have a vote?

May says people voted to leave the EU. It is her duty to deliver on that.

Mark Pawsey, a Conservative, asks May if she agrees that what is best for business is MPs finalising a deal and backing May for the leadership.

May says they should deliver a good Brexit for the country.

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, says we were promised “strong and stable”, and we were promised a Brexit vote. This government is an embarrassment. Will there be a vote next week?

May says the vote will be announced in the normal way.

Blackford says the government is in contempt of parliament. “This government is a farce.” May should do the right thing and resign.

May says she is being respectful of the views raised in the Commons. Because of the backstop concerns, she is going back to the EU.

Updated

May says MPs need to address the problem of cyber-bullying. She says the Scottish government has a programme addressing this. The UK government will continue to work on it.

Corbyn says May has failed to rule out no deal. He says a former minister says a customs union with the EU could be the basis for consensus. When will she work to find one?

May says one group that does not want a consensus is Labour. They have no plan, and want no Brexit.

Corbyn says the time for dithering and delay is over. May has negotiated a deal. There can be no more excuses. She must put it before parliament, and let’s have the vote. He says May has already been found to be in contempt of parliament. Will she call the vote and halt this “escalating crisis”?

May says, whatever U-turn comes next in Labour’s policy, Corbyn will sent out his henchmen to reveal it to the world - the “inconstant gardener”. Someone will explain the joke to Corbyn later, she says.

Tories cheer loudly.

May says Corbyn couldn’t care less about Brexit. He wants to bring down the government, sow division and crash the economy. The biggest threat to people isn’t leaving the EU; it’s a Corbyn government.

Updated

Corbyn, raising his voice, says this is disgraceful. The house agreed a date for a vote. The government has already been found to be in contempt of parliament. Now May is contemptuous of parliament.

He says May set out her negotiating objectives in the Lancaster House speech. She promised “certainty” wherever possible. Does this look like certainty?

May says she has provided that. She has got an agreement. No one in the EU was left in any doubt about feelings in the Commons. Corbyn’s policy is to stay in the EU, she clams.

Corbyn says, if there is a deal, May should put it to a vote. He asks May to categorically rule out a no-deal Brexit.

May says the way to ensure there is no no-deal is to agree a deal. She says Labour wants to change the law so that trade unions in this country can go on strike in solidarity with strikers anywhere in the world. That is not solidarity with small businesses, or ordinary working people.

Updated

Jeremy Corbyn joins the PM in condemning the Strasbourg attack.

Having told the media this morning that she has made progress, can she tell MPs what changes she has secured to her deal?

May says she went to Europe because she has been listening to the concerns of MPs. She says Corbyn couldn’t care less what she brings back from Brussels. He is going to vote against it anyway. All he wants to do is create chaos in our society and damage to the economy.

Corbyn says it is clear: “Nothing has changed.”

If May needed any clarification about the backstop, she could have just asked the attorney general. He says it will last indefinitely.

He says, since May has not secured any changes to the deal, will May confirm the rest of the Brexit debate will take place before the Christmas recess.

May says there is an EU council meeting, and further discussions to be held. The date of the vote will be announced in the normal way. There has been a meaningful vote. It was in 2016. And if Corbyn wants a meaningful date, she will give him one - 29 March, when the UK will leave.

Updated

Labour’s Kerry McCarthy says May said there would be no election in 2017, and that there would be a vote on Brexit on Tuesday. Can she now rule out a general election and a people’s vote?

May says she is ruling those out.

Updated

A further 22 MPs have declared on Twitter that they will be voting for May in tonight’s vote. This takes the total of Tory MPs backing the prime minister on Twitter to 121 (in an earlier list we incorrectly included a former MP Ben Howlett)

Leo Docherty

Anna Soubry

Nick Soames

Mark Prisk

Andrew Jones

Alberto Costa

Wendy Morton

Andrew Bowie

Tom Tugendhat

Paul Masterton

Oliver Heald

Chris Heaton-Harris

James Cartlidge

Kirstene Hair

Rachel MacClean

Amanda Milling

Stuart Andrew

Alex Burghart

Robert Jenrick

Jackie Doyle-Price

Caroline Dinenage

Iain Stewart

Updated

Theresa May starts by saying the thoughts of MPs are with those affected by the Strasbourg attack.

Today she will have meetings - “possibly many meetings” - with colleagues, she says – adopting the usual stock formula.

Updated

Theresa May’s husband, Philip, is in the gallery for PMQs.

Updated

Theresa May has just arrived in the chamber to loud cheers.

Here are the MPs down to ask a question.

PMQs
PMQs Photograph: Parliament

PMQs

PMQs is starting soon.

Normally I do a snap verdict after the May/Corbyn exchanges, but today I’ll wait until the whole session is over. What matters is how May handles the whole session, including questions from her colleagues.

As the old Westminster joke goes, the MPs on the other side are the opposition. It is the ones on your own benches who are the enemy.

The Brexiter Tory Desmond Swayne is still making up his mind.

From the BBC’s Evan Davis

This is from the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves.

David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, has been speaking at an event today where an alternative Brexit plan was launched. My colleague Lisa O’Carroll has been tweeting some key points.

Another reader’s question.

User avatar for wattlesong

Can Her Majesty dissolve this parliament and install Jeremy Corben as Caretaker PM awaiting a General Election, just as she did with the democratically-elected Whitlam government of Australia on Rememrance Day, 1975?

No.

(I think the consensus now is that the removal of Whitlam in those circumstances was a mistake. But it is not to going to happen in the UK now.)

This, from Rupert Harrison, who used to be George Osborne’s chief of staff, is probably on the money.

It is worth remembering that, after Jacob Rees-Mogg failed three weeks ago to trigger a confidence vote in Theresa May, he started arguing that Tory MPs needed to remove her because otherwise she would lead them into the next election. That seemed to amount to an admission that the number of MPs who object to her because she is an electoral liability is larger than the number who object to her because of her Brexit strategy.

The Tory Reform Group, which represents liberal Conservatives and claims to be the largest membership group within the party, has put out a statement backing Theresa May. It says:

This is a critical time for our country. It should not be about the Conservative party, but about our national interest, implementing the decision taken on June 23 and taking our country forward.

MPs voting tonight must think carefully before casting their ballot. Our party is, and must be, about more than Brexit - our country will not forgive us if we forget that.

With the very real prospect of a hard-left Corbyn government, now is the time for unity.

We urge our parliamentary colleagues to support the prime minister.

Updated

Another reader question.

User avatar for fripouille Guardian contributor

Hello Ed and Andrew, and if May sees off this challenge would it be safe to say that the ERG's influence and potential have been greatly weakened?

Only up to a point. There will still be 50-odd ERG MPs all set to vote against her Brexit deal.

Graham Brady's briefing on the confidence vote

Here is the timing of today’s proceedings.

5pm: Theresa May will address the 1922 Committee of Tory MPs

6pm: The ballot will open.

8pm: The ballot will close

9pm: Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, will first inform the prime minister of the result and then announce the result to MPs and the press, followed by the numbers on either side

At a briefing, Brady told reporters that the threshold for confidence letters had clearly been exceeded during the course of yesterday, but described the situation as “fluid” and gave a strong hint that confidence letters had been withdrawn as well as submitted.

He said he informed the prime minister at 9.30pm last night, once she returned from Brussels and it became clear that those who had submitted the letters “reflects the current intention”.

Brady said he had spoken to the PM to consult with her about the timing of the confidence vote and she had expressed a desire for it to happen as soon as possible. They agreed the confidence vote should be announced before the markets opened.

Brady said he had no qualms about holding the contest so quickly and said it was in accordance with the rules. He said given that colleagues were mostly in Westminster this week, expecting to be voting on the Brexit deal, he saw no reason to delay.

Those who are not in Westminster must email him with an agreed proxy by 4pm. Brady himself will check the ballot, along with two other officers of the 1922, Dame Cheryl Gillan and Charles Walker.

It is still not immediately clear what the numbers are – but the prime minister must secure 50% +1 of the MPs taking the Conservative whip. Brady said he was in conversation with the chief whip, Julian Smith, about the status of the two MPs who are suspended from the party - Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths.

The ballot paper will have two options: I have confidence in the prime minister, or, I do not have confidence in the prime minister.

If a leadership contest is triggered, Brady said he hoped the parliamentary proceedings where MPs whittle the candidates down to two, could be completed by the Christmas recess. The vote by party members is still unclear, and timing will be dictated by the postal vote rules of the Electoral Reform Society and the Conservative party executive. That executive is meeting tomorrow.

Sir Graham Brady
Sir Graham Brady. Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

Updated

IoD says business leaders 'tearing their hair out' at events in Westminster

Another business organisation has followed the BCC (see 10.04am) in expressing alarm at what is happening at Westminster. This is from Stephen Martin, director general of the Institute of Directors.

The last thing businesses needed today was even more uncertainty – and yet politics has managed to deliver on that once again.

Many business leaders, along with the rest of the country, will be tearing their hair out at the state of Westminster politics at the moment.

We are edging closer and closer to no deal as a result of constant can-kicking and internal domestic political strife.

Politics is politics, and we will have to let this run its course. But whatever the outcome, cool heads must prevail. Ensuring economic stability and certainty in the months ahead should be priority number one for all politicians.

Updated

I’m going to try to answer questions posted BTL. Here goes.

User avatar for ItsUnbelievable

@Andrew-what happens to Brexit? Is it more or less likely it can be stopped/A50 withdrawn//PeoplesVote?

If May loses tonight, my assessment is that a no-deal Brexit becomes even more likely. (See 11.08am.)

But if Boris Johnson were to become Tory leader (which is unlikely, because although he is popular with members, MPs distrust him, and there is no guarantee he would make it onto the final two shortlist), there are several MPs who have said they would no longer be happy to remain in the party.

The DUP would back a Johnson-led government in a confidence vote. But if eight or so Tory were so horrified by the idea that they were willing to abandon their party and vote against, then in those circumstances you can start to imagine the government losing a no-confidence vote and an election taking place.

But we are getting ahead of ourselves ...

Updated

Is May right to say electing a new leader would inevitably delay Brexit?

The most striking claim in Theresa May’s statement earlier was that, if Tory MPs replace her as leader, Brexit will be delayed. (See 9.07am.)

But is this true?

First, May said that, because a leadership contest would take so long, there was a risk of parliament taking control of the process. She said:

A new leader wouldn’t be in place by the 21 January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament.

This is questionable. It would be hard to conclude a leadership contest involving a ballot of party members by 21 January, but Owen Paterson, the Brexiter former cabinet minister, told the Today programme this morning that a contest could be wrapped up by mid January. And the 21 January deadline, set down in the EU Withdrawal Act, only applies if the government has not negotiated a withdrawal agreement. Commons officials argue that, since the government has told parliament an agreement has been reached, that deadline is no longer valid. What happens if a new government comes along and says the agreement is no longer valid is not clear.

(This is the deadline that says, in the event of there being no deal, MPs should get a “meaningful vote”. But, even if that deadline does apply legally, whether that vote would allow parliament to take control of the Brexit negotiations, is also highly questionable. As Sir David Natzler, clerk of the Commons, told MPs recently, ministers can just ignore a non-statutory vote.)

Then May said that a new leader would have to ask for an extension of article 50 to allow time for a new renegotiation. She said:

The new leader wouldn’t have time to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement and get the legislation through parliament by 29 March, so one of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding article 50, delaying or even stopping Brexit when people want us to get on with it.

But this assumes that the new party leader will want to negotiate a new deal. It is possible that this is the case but, given the views of Conservative party members, it is probably much more likely that a contest would result in the party being led by someone committed to a no-deal Brexit - either as their first choice or as the alternative if the EU does not give in to their fresh demands.

In a survey at the beginning of the month, when Conservative members were offered a choice of Brexit options, no deal came top in a ConservativeHome survey, with 34% support.

What sort of Brexit Tory members want
What sort of Brexit Tory members want Photograph: ConservativeHome

In another survey a few days later no deal was on 50%. As ConservativeHome reported:

Faced with a narrower field of May’s deal, a renegotiation attempt, no deal, another referendum, or cancelling Brexit, just over 50 per cent of respondents backed ‘no deal’. This compares with just under a quarter favouring a renegotiation attempt and just 16 per cent the prime minister’s proposals.

Remember, these are the people who will elect the new leader.

It is also worth remembering that Boris Johnson, the current favourite among the membership (see 10am), has in the past advocated a Trump-style approach to Brexit. (“There’d be all sorts of breakdowns, all sorts of chaos.”) There are leading candidates who voted remain but, as the New Statesman reports, people like Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt have reportedly started to say they favour “a managed no deal” - which basically means a no deal.

It is conceivable that electing a new leader could lead to Brexit being delayed. But it seems much more likely that, if May loses her vote tonight, a no-deal Brexit will become even more likely than it already is.

Michael Fabricant, a Tory Brexiter, has said he has not decided how he will vote tonight. He said:

I did not submit a letter to the 1922 and the timing of this vote is unfortunate as the prime minister has not completed her round of visits with EU leaders to resolve the Irish backstop question.

I had already explained to the prime minister at the beginning of last week in a one-to-one that the Irish backstop causes the biggest problem for me. I hope she has found a solution or an alternative way forward. If not, the government could fall anyway as Northern Irish DUP MPs have said they will no longer support the government in the House of Commons.

All these factors will be weighing in my mind when I cast my vote this evening.

And here are the four Tory MPs who have put messages on Twitter saying they will vote against Theresa May.

Andrea Jenkyns

Bernard Jenkin

James Duddridge

Nadine Dorries

And Anne-Marie Trevelyan is not saying:

Updated

100 Tory MPs have tweeted support for Theresa May

  • In the first three hours since the no confidence vote was announced, 100 Tory MPs have tweeted their support for Theresa May. And, according to our count, only four tweeted messages saying they will vote against her (although we know that at least 48 MPs are likely to vote against her, because at least 48 MPs submitted letters calling for a no confidence vote.)

  • Here is the list of MPs supporting May. (Click on the names to see their tweets.)

    • Update: 14 more Conservative MPs have tweeted their support for May (apologies for including former MP Ben Howlett in the list above).

    Updated

    According to the Press Association, all cabinet ministers have now publicly said that they will back Theresa May in the confidence vote.

    Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will. It is a secret ballot and – perish the thought – Tory MPs have been known to lie about this.

    Although when I say secret, I mean secret-ish. MPs vote in a committee room in the Commons. There are officers from the 1922 Committee there and there is nothing to stop MPs showing their ballot paper to colleagues to show that they have voted as they said they would. This does happen.

    Updated

    On Sky News Crispin Blunt, one of the Conservative MPs who has submitted a letter calling for a confidence vote, has said that he does not accept Theresa May’s argument that replacing her as party leader would lead to Brexit being delayed. (See 9.07am.) He said that, with article 50 triggered and the EU Withdrawal Act passed into law, Brexit is going to happen on 29 March anyway.

    Updated

    David Cameron is backing his successor.

    Businesses watching events at Westminster with 'utter dismay', says BCC boss

    Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said today that businesses were watching events at Westminster with “utter dismay”. He said:

    At one of the most pivotal moments for the UK economy in decades, it is unacceptable that Westminster politicians have chosen to focus on themselves, rather than on the needs of the country.

    The utter dismay among businesses watching events in Westminster cannot be exaggerated. Our firms are worried, investors around the world are baffled and disappointed, and markets are showing serious strain as this political saga goes on and on.

    History will not be kind to those who prioritise political advantage over people’s livelihoods.

    Businesses need politicians, regardless of party or views on Brexit, to understand that their high-stakes gambles have real-world consequences of the highest order.

    Updated

    This is from Jackson Carlaw MSP, acting leader of the Scottish Conservatives while Ruth Davidson is on maternity leave.

    The ConservativeHome website carries out regular surveys of Conservative party members as to whom they would like to see as the next part leader. For the record, here are their most recent findings, from early November. Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, and Sajid Javid, the home secretary, were the two favourites.

    It is only a survey, but these ConservativeHome surveys have a reasonably good record when it comes to indicating how the membership as a whole will vote in party elections.

    Survey of Tory members on who should be next party leader
    Survey of Tory members on who should be next party leader Photograph: ConservativeHome

    Updated

    Prof Tim Bale, an academic who has written a history of the modern Conservative party, has been talking about possible leadership candidates at an event hosted by the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank this morning. My colleague Lisa O’Carroll has posted the highlights on Twitter.

    Updated

    Full text of Theresa May's statement

    Here is the full text of the statement that Theresa May delivered outside Number 10.

    Sir Graham Brady has confirmed that he has received 48 letters from Conservative MPs so there will now be a vote of confidence in my leadership of the Conservative party.

    I will contest that vote with everything I’ve got. I have been a member of the Conservative party for over 40 years. I have served it as an activist, councillor, MP, shadow minister, home secretary and now as prime minister.

    I stood to be leader because I believe in the Conservative vision for a better future. A thriving economy, with nowhere and nobody left behind. A stronger society, where everyone can make the most of their talents. Always serving the national interest.

    And at this crucial moment in our history, that means securing a Brexit deal that delivers on the result of the EU referendum.

    Taking back control of our borders, laws and money - but protecting jobs, our security and our precious union as we do so.

    Through good times and bad over the last two years, my passionate belief that such a deal is attainable, that a bright future lies ahead for our country, has not wavered.

    And it is now within our grasp.

    I spent yesterday meeting Chancellor Merkel, Prime Minister Rutte, President Tusk and President Juncker to address the concerns that MPs have with the backstop – and we are making progress.

    I was due to travel to Dublin this afternoon to continue that work – but will now remain here in London to make the case for my leadership with my parliamentary colleagues.

    A change of leadership in the Conservative party now will put our country’s future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it.

    A new leader wouldn’t be in place by the 21st January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament.

    The new leader wouldn’t have time to renegotiate a withdrawal agreement and get the legislation through parliament by 29 March – so one of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding article 50, delaying – or even stopping – Brexit when people want us to get on with it.

    And a leadership election would not change the fundamentals of the negotiation or the parliamentary arithmetic.

    Weeks spent tearing ourselves apart will only create more division, just as we should be standing together to serve our country. None of that would be in the national interest.

    The only people whose interests would be served are Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell.

    The British people want us to get on with it. And they want us to focus on the other vital issues that matter to them too. Building a stronger economy, delivering first-class public services and the homes that families need.

    These are the public’s priorities - and they must be the Conservative party’s priorities too. We must – and we shall – deliver on the referendum vote and seize the opportunities that lie ahead.

    But the Conservatives must not be a single-issue party; we are a party of the whole nation. Moderate, pragmatic, mainstream: committed to re-uniting our country and building a country that works for everyone - the agenda I set out in my first speech outside this front door.

    Delivering the Brexit people voted for. Building a country that works for everyone. I have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since I became prime minister.

    And I stand ready to finish the job.

    Theresa May making her statement outside 10 Downing Street
    Theresa May making her statement outside 10 Downing Street. Photograph: Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images

    Updated

    This is from Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the European Research Group who went public with his call for a no confidence vote three weeks ago.

    Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, told Today she was not surprised that Theresa May was facing a confidence vote. She said:

    I can’t say I’m surprised because being here in Westminster yesterday I did realise there were a lot of conversations going on. However, my focus of course has to continue to be on the withdrawal agreement and the fact that the backstop needs to be taken out of that withdrawal agreement.

    Updated

    On BBC News Sir Bill Cash, the Tory Brexiter, was asked who should be the next leader. He refused to give a firm answer, but he said Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary, “has a lot going for him”.

    The European Research Group, which represents Tory MPs like Cash pushing for a harder Brexit, is planning its own hustings if there is a leadership contest. Steve Baker, its deputy chair, has said the Brexiters should only support one candidate and that it should be someone with cabinet experience who is not backing Theresa May’s deal. That means either Boris Johnson, David Davis, Raab or Esther McVey.

    But there is no evidence that Johnson, Davis and Raab (the strongest contenders) would be willing to agree among themselves on just one of them standing.

    Updated

    Here are some more Conservative MPs tweeting their support for May.

    From Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons

    From Liz Truss, chief secretary to the Treasury

    From David Mundell, the Scottish secretary

    From Steve Brine, a health minister

    Updated

    What May said about how having a new leader would delay or stop Brexit

    Here is the key passage from Theresa May’s statement.

    A change of leadership in the Conservative party now would put our country’s future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it.

    A new leader wouldn’t be in place by the 21 January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament.

    The new leader wouldn’t have time to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement and get the legislation through parliament by 29 March, so one of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding article 50, delaying or even stopping Brexit when people want us to get on with it.

    And a leadership election would not change the fundamentals of the negotiation, or the parliamentary arithmetic. Weeks spent tearing ourselves apart will only create more division just as we should be standing together to serve our country. None of that would be in the national interest. The only people whose interests would be served would be Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell.

    Theresa May speaking to the media outside Number 10
    Theresa May speaking to the media outside Number 10. Photograph: Peter Nicholls/Reuters

    Updated

    Here are some more comments from Tory MPs supporting Theresa May.

    From Liam Fox, the international trade secretary

    From Damian Hinds, the education secretary

    From Chris Grayling, the transport secretary

    I will be backing Theresa May tonight. At this crucial point, the last thing the country needs is a prolonged and introspective leadership contest.

    I was one of the first cabinet ministers to back Brexit. Delivering a deal was never going to be simple.

    Theresa May is the best person to make sure we actually leave the EU and deliver on the Brexit that I and the people of our great country voted for.

    From Sir Peter Bottomley

    I guess some of the late letters are from people who want to halt the negotiations. I think they want us to crash out.

    From Andrew Bowie

    I firmly believe that [May] will win the leadership election; now is not the time to embark on a selfish leadership election when so much is at stake in the national interest.

    May says if she is replaced, new leader would have to delay Brexit

    Theresa May says she is going to contest the confidence vote “with everything I’ve got”.

    She says she has been a member of the party for 40 years, and has served it in various posts, including as PM.

    She has done so because she wants a better future for the country.

    And her priority now is delivering Brexit.

    She says she has a passionate belief that a better future is available. And that is now within the country’s grasp.

    She met EU leaders yesterday. She was due to go to Dublin today. She says having a new leader now would put “our country’s future at risk”.

    She says a new leader would not have time time reopen the negotiations, and so parliament would be able to take over the process.

    And she says that a new leader would have to delay or revoke article 50.

    • May says if she is replaced a new leader would have to delay Brexit.

    She says the only people who would benefit would be Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell.

    She says the Conservatives are a modern, pragmatic party.

    She refers to the agenda she set out in her “burning injustices” speech when she became PM. She intends to finish the job, she says.

    Updated

    Here is the press release from the Conservative 1922 Committee announcing the no confidence vote.

    Press release
    Press release Photograph: 1922 Committee/22 Committee

    On Sky News Sir Graham Brady says, if Theresa May loses the confidence vote and there is a leadership contest, the parliamentary bit of the contest - when Tory MPs whittle down the contenders to a shortlist of two - could be completed relatively quickly, within 10 days.

    But it would be for the party’s board to decide how long the ballot of members (who get to decide between the final two under Tory party rules) would take.

    Timetable for the day

    On the Today programme Sir Graham Brady said that Theresa May would address the backbench 1922 Committee at 5pm tonight.

    The confidence vote will then be held between 6pm and 8pm, with the result announced soon afterwards.

    So here is the timetable for the day.

    12pm: Theresa May faces Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs.

    2pm: May chairs cabinet.

    5pm: May addresses the 1922 Committee.

    6pm: The no confidence ballot opens.

    8pm: The ballot closes. The result is announced soon afterwards.

    Updated

    Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, is on Today. He says if Labour had tabled a motion of no confidence in the government yesterday, that would have galvanised support for the PM.

    Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Matthew Weaver.

    Theresa May is expected to make a statement outside Number 10 any minute now.

    Brexit will have to be delayed if May loses vote, Gauke claims

    The justice secretary, David Gauke, said that if May loses tonight an article 50 extension will have to be sought from the EU.

    “Clearly there would have to be a delay,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

    If she loses tonight I think whoever is prime minister will have to delay article 50.

    Updated

    More cabinet ministers have vowed to back May in the vote.

    Theresa May is due to make a statement in Downing Street at 8.30am.

    May 'businesslike' when told about no confidence vote, says Brady

    Asked about May’s mood, Brady said it would be difficult for anyone to be surprised by the turn of events. He said he would not be drawn on her demeanour. But he said she was being “businesslike” about the no-confidence vote.

    Updated

    Graham Brady has refused to say how many no-confidence letters he has received. “I am only required to say the threshold was reached,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

    Brady told the prime minister the threshold was reached in a telephone call last night. May was keen to resolve the matter as soon as possible, Brady said.

    Updated

    Rudd, Javid, Brokenshire and Hunt vow to back PM

    Cabinet ministers and several Tory MPs have been vowing to back Theresa May.

    Welcome to Politics Live after Conservative MPs have triggered a vote of no confidence in Theresa May, plunging the Brexit process into further chaos

    Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, has received at least 48 letters from Conservative MPs calling for a vote of no confidence in May. Under party rules, a contest is triggered if 15% of Conservative MPs write to the chair of the committee of Tory backbenchers.

    A ballot will be held on Wednesday evening, Brady said.

    In a press release, he said: “The threshold of 15% of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the leader of the Conservative party has been exceeded.”

    The prime minister will now need the backing of at least 158 Tory MPs to see off the Brexiters’ challenge, and her position would then be safe for 12 months. However, the prime minister could decide to resign if votes against her were below the threshold to topple her, but significant enough in number.

    Updated

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