Boris Johnson
Johnson’s progress to Downing Street appeared unstoppable even before last week’s first round of voting among MPs, and most of his colleagues believe it is now all but inevitable that he will be Britain’s next prime minister.
His well-disciplined campaign team will continue with their strategy of subjecting him to minimal media exposure, though once the field is narrowed down to two, the final pair will appear in more than a dozen head-to-head hustings for Tory members. The team’s main aim is simply to keep heads down and avoid Johnson creating headlines for the wrong reasons.
There were widespread rumours at Westminster that Johnson’s team was keen to see the elimination of Dominic Raab, the only candidate whose Brexit stance outflanked that of the former foreign secretary.
Johnson’s consigliere, Gavin Williamson, the former defence secretary, who revels in the dark arts of politics, has been exercising the persuasive powers he used as Theresa May’s chief whip.
But many colleagues fear that when the campaign is over and Johnson makes it to No 10, some of the pledges he has made along the way, across the spectrum of his party from Steve Baker to Matt Hancock, will quickly unravel.
Michael Gove
Plucky underdog Rory Stewart hinted on Wednesday morning, before he was knocked out of the race, that he and Gove were considering joining forces. His campaign team subsequently said: “Clearly at some point people will need to combine teams. But any team that gets combined, Rory wants to lead.”
That never looked plausible, however. Stewart is now likely to endorse the environment secretary – and hope to take many of his supporters with him.
Some had already swapped sides. One told the Guardian they had supported Stewart in round two, but would be switching to Gove on Wednesday, because “now it’s serious”.
Gove has privately reassured colleagues over recent months that he understands the devastating consequences of a no-deal Brexit, not least for his own environment department.
He has also stressed his background as a reformer, and promised to boost education funding and tackle social care funding – all pitches that could appeal to Stewartites, potentially enabling Gove to overtake Jeremy Hunt. That would create the head-to-head between the two faces of the Vote Leave campaign that never happened in 2016, because Johnson pulled out rather than face his erstwhile friend.
Jeremy Hunt
Hunt’s team called his showing on Wednesday a “fantastic result”. It was, in the sense that he avoided being overtaken by Gove, and that he picked up an extra eight votes from Tuesday’s showing of 46.
But there is no doubt that after three rounds of voting Hunt would have hoped to be the obvious challenger to Johnson, whereas he was only narrowly ahead of Gove, with just three votes in it.
The foreign secretary’s team are conscious that he risks appearing middle-of-the-road, with his rivals dismissing him as “continuity May”, or worse, Theresa in trousers, or “Tit” for short.
Hence Hunt’s decision to attack Johnson for hiding from public scrutiny, and to challenge him directly over no deal, in Tuesday’s TV debate. And he is clearly hoping to turn up the passion for the next round, tweeting last night that he would “put his heart and soul” into giving Johnson “the fight of his life”.
Meanwhile Amber Rudd was hosting a dinner of One Nation MPs on Wednesday evening, many of them Stewart backers, in the hope of persuading them to support Hunt.
Sajid Javid
Before his punchy performance in Tuesday’s debate Javid appeared vulnerable, with some allies fearing that he could be overtaken by Stewart, whose off-the-wall campaign style had helped him to remain in contention.
But Javid scored one of the few clear victories amid the cacophony in the BBC studio, bouncing his four colleagues into promising an independent inquiry into Islamophobia in their party – a promise the winner will now be held to.
His campaign team professed themselves delighted with the result, and will now turn their attention to trying to win over Stewart’s backers, by stressing Javid’s liberal credentials.
However, one moderate former Tory minister, who had backed Javid in the first round because of personal loyalty, said: “I like him, but I can’t support him because I don’t agree with his politics – he’s a Thatcherite.”
Javid looks most likely to drop out in Thursday morning’s race, and there was immediate speculation that he could even do so on Wednesday night, perhaps rolling in behind Johnson in exchange for the offer of a big job.
But he appeared reluctant to do that, tweeting after the second round results were announced “we can do this!” A campaign source added: “Saj has a funny habit of defying the odds.”
Delighted to make it through to the final day of MP voting. Grateful for the support of many excellent colleagues. We can do this! #TeamSaj #BrexitAndBeyond
— Sajid Javid (@sajidjavid) June 19, 2019
