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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow and Kevin Rawlinson

Tory leadership: Jeremy Hunt to face Boris Johnson after Michael Gove eliminated – as it happened

Closing summary

We’re going to close down this live blog now. Here’s a summary of the day’s most consequential events:

  • The next prime minister will be either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt. Tory members will choose between the two after Sajid Javid was eliminated from the running in the fourth round of voting this afternoon, followed by Michael Gove in the fifth this evening.
  • Labour criticised the process, saying the effective decision on who becomes the next prime minister should not be in the hands solely of the Tory party membership. Labour also described the choice facing those members as one between the “man who broke the NHS [and] the man who wants to sell it to Donald Trump”.
  • There were claims of underhand tactics as Hunt made it through to the run-off. Some Gove supporters muttered darkly that Boris Johnson’s camp may have lent votes to their candidate’s preferred opponent to give him the best chance of winning. Other Tory figures dismissed the suggestion.
  • There is “enormous hostility” within the EU to the idea of granting the UK a further Brexit extension, according to the Irish taoiseach. Leo Varadkar said he believed an extension would only happen if there was a general election or a second referendum.
  • A technical advisory group has been established to advise the government on arrangements that could help keep the Irish border invisible after Brexit. Experts from Rolls Royce, Queens University and the Police Force of Northern Ireland met for the first time today.

If you’d like to read yet more, my colleagues Heather Stewart and Peter Walker have the full story:

The Conservatives say there have been 20,000 applications for places at the 16 members’ hustings around the country. The party’s chairman, Brandon Lewis, has said:

I’d like to congratulate Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson on reaching the final stage of the leadership contest.

I’m delighted with the strong interest in our hustings to date, showing the vitality of our party in every nation and region of the UK.

We are conscious that the Conservatives are not just selecting a new leader but also the next prime minister, and we take that responsibility extremely seriously at such an important time for our nation.

Jeremy Hunt claims he is gong to give Johnson “the fight of his life” in a video posted to his Twitter account:

Of course, it may be a moot point. Mark Francois has told Sky News this evening that Johnson has promised the hard Brexit-supporting ERG, of which Francois is vice chairman, that Brexit will happen on 31 October “come hell or high water” if he becomes prime minister.

The former Tory leader, Iain Duncan Smith, is backing Boris Johnson, whom he describes as the man to “inspire and lead” the UK out of the EU.

Duncan Smith also said remain-supporting MPs should “stop bellyaching and moaning” and claimed Johnson had been misinterpreted in the BBC debate.

When Boris said it was eminently achievable he was talking about a trade agreement. He said at the beginning of the programme if we don’t leave on October 31 we will face a cataclysm.

Duncan Smith arguably has a point – and it’s one he made in his post-debate spin. But he isn’t strictly right.

At the beginning, Johnson did indeed say the UK “must come out on the 31st October”. But when asked later by the host, Emily Maitlis, for an absolute guarantee the UK would leave on 31 October under his stewardship, he said: “Michael [Gove] was guaranteeing to get out by the end of December [2019]. I think that October 31st is eminently feasible.” (Johnson had been responding to a question from Gove about “getting [a] deal over the line” on or around that date or “ripping it up” just to keep to the timetable.)

He also spoke later about the importance of leaving with a deal, saying no one wanted a “disorderly Brexit”.

So, it’s – at best – debatable whether Johnson was failing to guarantee Brexit in any form on 31 October, or just failing to guarantee having a negotiated settlement done and dusted by that date.

However, what is less debatable is the accuracy of Duncan Smith’s “trade agreement” comment. No such document is on the table for Johnson to have referred to.

The portions to be determined prior to Brexit – and those which Theresa May had such trouble getting through Parliament – are the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration.

Broadly speaking, these set out the terms of the UK’s exit and the foundations upon which a future trade deal could be built. Neither is a “trade agreement” in the most common understanding of that term and no trade deal would be agreed before Brexit.

Updated

The Labour party has had its say on the news that Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt will face each other for the Tory leadership – and the keys to No 10.

There’s perhaps little surprise in the fact that Labour wants a general election. Andrew Gwynne, its national campaign coordinator, has said:

What a choice: the man who broke the NHS or the man who wants to sell it to Donald Trump. A handful of unrepresentative Conservative members should not be choosing our next prime minister. People should decide through a general election.

Updated

In April, in one of its regular surveys of Conservative party members, the ConservativeHome specifically asked how they would vote faced with a choice between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt.

Johnson won by a landslide, beating Hunt almost two to one (61% to 33%).

Johnson v Hunt
Johnson v Hunt Photograph: ConservativeHome

It is only a survey, and this time there will be a campaign, hustings, and debates, but this is probably a fair guide as to what the party thinks at the moment. It shows the scale of the challenge facing Hunt.

That’s all from me for tonight.

My colleague Kevin Rawlinson is taking over now.

From the Financial Times’ George Parker

Mel Stride, Michael Gove’s campaign manager said Gove’s cocaine admission had damaged his leadership bid. “It stalled us and meant momentum was lost at that time,” he said.

Here is a useful chart with all the voting numbers from this round of the contest.

Conor Burns, the Bournemouth MP and a key member of the Boris Johnson team, dismissed the idea that they had lent votes to Hunt to make sure he progressed. He said:

The message came from Boris: if people want to support me they vote for me, no pissing around. We wanted at every stage to make progress. We wanted to go to the members will more than half of the party voting for Boris. That’s a really strong mandate and message from our parliamentary colleagues to our members in the country – get on board and let’s bring it all together.

And here is Jeremy Hunt praising the final four candidates in the contest (but not the others).

The Mirror’s Pippa Crerar points out that, although Boris Johnson gained only three extra votes this afternoon, at least four MPs had said they would switch to him from Sajid Javid.

ITV has announced the date of a debate it will host between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. It will on Tuesday 9 July.

Hunt says he is 'underdog' in final contest - and reaffirms his opposition to early election

And here is Jeremy Hunt commenting on the result.

He is describing himself as the underdog - and reaffirming his intention not to trigger an early election.

And this is from the Mirror’s Pippa Crerar.

Actually, “vote-rigging” is not the right word. Getting your supporters to vote in such a way as to deliver the required result is more akin to tactical voting than vote-rigging, which implies outright fraud.

In private, Michael Gove’s team are rather less sanguine than Gove’s tweet suggests, according to the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn.

And this is from Michael Gove.

This is from Boris Johnson.

Fifth round results in full

And here are the results in full, with the changes from lunchtime and the percentages (rounded up).

Boris Johnson - 160 - up 3 - 51%

Jeremy Hunt - 77 - up 18 - 25%

Michael Gove - 75 - up 14 - 24%

There was one spoilt ballot paper.

Updated

Johnson and Hunt make final ballot, as Gove loses out by just two votes

Cheryl Gillan, the joint acting chair of the 1922 Committee, is now reading out the results.

She starts by thanking by the officers and staff of the Commons for their work.

That means it’s over. There isn’t a tie.

All 313 Tory MPs voted, she says. There was one spoiled ballot paper.

Boris Johnson - 160

Jeremy Hunt - 77

Michael Gove - 75

Updated

From the Financial Times’ George Parker

The results are due very soon. My colleague Peter Walker is in the room.

This is from Sajid Javid, the home secretary, who was knocked out of the contest at lunchtime.

Sir Max Hastings, the former Daily Telegraph editor who used to employ Boris Johnson when he was a journalist, is a frequent critic of his former employee, but he has been particularly harsh on the PM programme just now. This is from my colleague Jonathan Freedland.

UPDATE: And this is from the BBC’s Philippa Thomas.

Updated

This is from BrexitCentral’s Jonathan Isaby.

Counting starts after fifth Tory leadership ballot closes

Voting has closed in the fifth Tory leadership ballot.

We are expecting the result at around 6pm.

This is from the BBC’s Jessica Parker, who is outside the room where MPs have been voting in the Tory leadership contest.

The Conservative MP Chris Philp voted for Sajid Javid this morning. Now he is supporting Boris Johnson.

Tory party faces 'existential political challenges', says Lidington

David Lidington, the de facto deputy PM and formerly a Rory Stewart supporter, has emerged from the fifth round of voting to warn the final two candidates, whoever they are, to not focus too narrowly on issues like Brexit, saying the union of the UK is at the most risk he has ever seen, while the party faces “existential” challenges.

Lidington told waiting reporters he would welcome a “vigorous” debate, but urged the final two to pitch their appeal widely. On Brexit, he also said a no-deal departure would risk the UK splitting up. He said:

I think the members deserve a proper debate about the challenges that face the country and the Conservative party. Now clearly, Brexit is going to be a key issue, but I really hope that the candidates do look beyond that.

You have to think back to 1992 since the Conservative party last won a clear overall majority, and even that was a fairly small one, and 2015 was smaller still. If you’re going by age group, you get to 51-year-olds before you find more people willing to vote Conservative than Labour. In 2017 we went backwards in BAME voters, who are a more important part of the electorate in many constituencies – in the suburbs, small towns.

The Tory party is facing some existential political challenges, and the union of the United Kingdom is under greater strain than I have never known it in my lifetime. There are some key constitutional issues, some really key political challenges for the party, and I think it’s really important that the candidates show they’re up for addressing that.

Echoing what Philip Hammond is saying in his Mansion House speech tonight (see 9.56am), on the union Lidington said:

The fact that England and Wales voted to leave in the referendum and Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain adds to those political tensions. We have to rediscover ways in which people can be both proudly Scottish and proudly British at the same time. I think the union of the UK needs to be a priority that runs through the heart of the next government.

I certainly believe that a no-deal Brexit would add to the risks to the union – I don’t think it’s a secret I believe that – but I think, too, that we have to be confident about demonstrating that the union of United Kingdom brings benefits to every part of the Unitred Kingdom.

David Lidington
David Lidington Photograph: Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP/Getty Images

The Conservative MP Kevin Foster, who voted for Sajid Javid this morning, says he has switched to Boris Johnson.

Lord Heseltine, the Conservative former deputy prime minister and veteran pro-European, has told the BBC’s PM programme that he finds the state of his party “deeply depressing”.

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

More from the committee corridor where MPs have been voting

Liam Fox is backing Jeremy Hunt.

From the Economist’s Anne McElvoy

The Conservative MP Richard Benyon seems a bit fed up with all the voting.

These are from Sky’s Beth Rigby.

@SCrabbPembs is Stephen Crabb, the former cabinet minister who was backing Sajid Javid.

Theresa May arrived at what could be her last European Union summit, stressing the UK’s separate future as “global Britain”, while expressing her hope for “a close and deep partnership” in the future.

The prime minister is attending a regular EU summit, devoted to the climate crisis and foreign policy problems, from Russia’s annexation of Crimea to a drilling dispute with Turkey.

EU leaders will also hold the first round of serious negotiations over divvying up the EU’s top jobs, replacements for Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk - a matter previous British prime ministers once strove to influence.

Asked about British politics and her likely successor Boris Johnson, May sounded a familiar note.

People will be looking for the UK to do what we have always said we would do, which is to make a constructive contribution as we remain a member of the European Union. For that period of time we will continue to meet our rights and obligations, but of course we will be leaving the EU and we look forward to developing a close partnership with the EU when we have left.

She was also asked if she would miss attending EU summits, but swerved away from expressing personal feeling.

I will continue to do what we have always done as the UK, which is to play a constructive role within the European Union while we part of the discussions around the table.

But with EU leaders divided over top jobs, May could return for a special summit before the end of June or in early July.

Sarah Wollaston, the former Conservative MP who now sits as an independent (after a detour through Change UK), thinks there will be a snap election if Boris Johnson becomes PM.

Here are some questions from below the line that I can help with.

User avatar for tonyglondon

would be great to get some analysis from @ANDREW on this. if they announce on, say, Thurs or Friday, and parliament goes away for the summer that day:
1) could the new PM have the whole summer without having to face parliament ?
2) is there a way the opposition can get parliament recalled? .. to get a no confidence vote done?
3) what if the DUP don't play ball, and the new PM has no majority?
4) is it possible that the new PM cannot take over until Sept for any reason?

1) In theory the recess could start before the new prime minister has been appointed. But the Commons has to approve recess dates (there is never normally a division, because they are agreed on a cross-party basis) and Labour would probably object if the government tried to start the recess before the new PM takes over. Downing Street has said, anyway, that it won’t do this. But it does look as though the new PM will only have two or three days with the house sitting before recess starts. (See 10.52am.)

2) No. The government has to request a recall of parliament.

3) The new PM will not have to prove he has a Commons majority before he gets appointed, and I think it is unlikely that the majority will get tested in the two or three days before the summer recess starts. There will be no key legislation to pass. Labour could go for a no confidence vote, but they are likely to wait until some Tories, or the DUP, have said they will vote with the opposition, and I would be surprised if that happens on day one. The potential Tory rebels are likely to give the new PM, even Boris Johnson, a chance, and see what he does first.

4) No.

User avatar for NDL1234

@Andrew

You have reported the dates of the recess; however it would be interesting to know if any MP raised objection to this and suggested they should be sitting to hold a new PM to account, deal with Brexit, actually carry out some work . . .

As far as I can see, at business questions no MP did object to the proposed date of the recess, although Labour’s Valerie Vaz asked for clarification as to when the new PM would take over. (See 10.52am.)

Sajid Javid would not say he was voting for when he cast his vote, the BBC’s Iain Watson reports.

Boris Johnson managed to jump the queue, apparently.

More from the committee corridor, outside the room where Tory MPs are voting.

Theresa May has arrived at the EU summit in Brussels. As my colleague Jennifer Rankin reports, she was not in the mood for chatty reflection about her dealings with her EU partners. (Is she ever?)

Theresa May speaking to reporters as she arrived at the EU summit.
Theresa May speaking to reporters as she arrived at the EU summit. Photograph: Pier Marco Tacca/Getty Images

Three former prime ministers, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron, joined Theresa May at Westminster Abbey earlier for the memorial service for Jeremy Heywood, who was cabinet secretary before his death last November.

Front row, left to right: Gus O’Donnell, former cabinet secretary, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Nick Clegg, David Cameron and Theresa May.
Front row, left to right: Gus O’Donnell, former cabinet secretary, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Nick Clegg, David Cameron and Theresa May.
 Photograph: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images

MPs start voting in fifth Tory leadership ballot

MPs have just started voting in the fifth ballot of the contest.

Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt are the only names left in the contest. The top two will be on the ballot for the 160,000-strong Conservative party membership.

MPs will vote until 5.30pm, and we will get the result at around 6pm.

This is from Jonathan Isaby, editor of the BrexitCentral website.

Technical group set up to advise on alternatives to backstop

Experts from Rolls Royce, Queens University and the Police Force of Northern Ireland have been named as part of a new group to advise the government on arrangements that could help keep the Irish border invisible post Brexit.

The 15-strong technical advisory group was meeting for the first time today in a session chaired by Brexit secretary Steve Barclay and Treasury minister Jesse Norman.

In a statement, the Department for Exiting the EU said two other groups - one comprising business interests and the other politicians - would seen be announced with a budget of £20m for their work.

The “technical advisory group” announced today includes: academic Katy Hayward, a sociology reader at Queen’s University, who has recently returned from a six-week Eisenhower fellowship trip to the US to study arrangements on the Canadian and Mexican border; Declan Billington of the Northern Ireland Food and Drink Association, who has said the government’s tariff policy for the region could wipe out dairy farming on the border; and Tim Mairs, the Police Service of Northern Ireland’s assistant chief constable, who is likely reflect the impact of no-deal on smuggling, organised crime and co-operation with the Gardai without data exchange or the Euro arrest warrant.

Others on the group are experts on customs, freight forwarding and the former head of central technology at Rolls Royce, David Smith. Notably absent are any voices representing farming but these are expected to be represented in the second group of experts.

“These groups will help inform the UK’s negotiations with the EU on developing alternative arrangements to the Northern Ireland backstop, set out in the withdrawal agreement, with the aim of replacing it by December 2020 so that it is never needed,” said DExEU in a statement.

Steve Barclay, the Brexit secretary who was chairing the first meeting of the group today along with Treasury minister Jesse Norman, said in a statement:

The technical group will provide a forum for experts to discuss workable alternative arrangements, assessing both capability and timelines and bringing their significant experience to bear.

Steve Barclay
Steve Barclay Photograph: David Mirzoeff/PA

The Labour MP Rachel Reeves, chair of the Commons business committee, has welcomed what the chancellor, Philip Hammond (see 9.23am), and Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister (see 10.13am), have been saying about Brexit today. In a statement released by the People’s Vote campaign she said:

The Dutch prime minister and the chancellor of the exchequer are doing the one thing that Boris Johnson hates more any other: telling the truth about Brexit.

Neither Mark Rutte nor Philip Hammond get many laughs, but they are serious and responsible figures who deserve to be listened to at this crucial time for our country.

The prime minister of the Netherlands this morning exposed the vacuity of Boris Johnson’s renegotiation fantasies. And this evening, the chancellor will blow a huge hole in the idea that forcing a destructive no-deal Brexit on the British people has even the semblance of economic or political credibility.

Ladbrokes has Jeremy Hunt ahead of Michael Gove to make it onto the ballot of party members. It has Hunt at 1/2 and Gove at 6/4.

And this is from the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves.

From the FT’s Jim Pickard

Some worrying news from the BBC’s Chris Mason ...

Paul Goodman, editor of ConservativeHome, a website that is very influential with Tory members, has written a good preview of the final ballot starting at 3.30pm this afternoon. He suggests it might be easier for the party if Jeremy Hunt is on the ballot for members, not Michael Gove. Here is an extract.

We end with the thought that, if Hunt wins through, it is relatively easy to imagine him as deputy prime minister or first secretary of state – rowing in behind [Boris] Johnson as a dependable deputy. The latter flourishes when strong support is to hand. Simon Milton in London was the quintessential example.

If Gove survives the remaining ballot instead, we don’t see how he could be deployed by Johnson in a similar way. There is too much tricky history between the two men. There would be too much media sensitivity to power struggles, appointments and policy differences.

This is from Jeremy Hunt.

'Enormous hostility' in EU to idea of granting UK further Brexit extension, says Varadkar

Turning away from London, in Brussels, where the EU summit is getting underway, Leo Varadkar, the Irish taoiseach (prime minister) has said there is “enormous hostility” in the EU to the idea of granting the UK another extension. These are from my colleague Jennifer Rankin.

Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt have both said they would not rule out asking for an extension of Brexit beyond 31 October, if both sides were close to a deal and more time were needed. Boris Johnson has said that he would not do this although, as noted earlier, many Tories believe that in practice he might want an extension. (See 12.22pm.)

For article 50 to be extended again, beyond 31 October, the UK would have to request that, and the EU 27 would have to agree unanimously.

UPDATE: Here are the full quotes from Leo Varadkar.

On the backstop

There’s no withdrawal agreement without a backstop and there’s no implementation period without a withdrawal agreement.

On an extension

There’s very much a strong view across the European Union that there shouldn’t be any more extensions. While I have endless patience, some of my colleagues have lost patience, quite frankly, with the UK and there’s enormous hostility to any further extension.

So, I think an extension could only really happen if it were to facilitate something like a general election in the UK or perhaps even something like a second referendum if they decided to have one.

What won’t be entertained is an extension for further negotiations or further indicative votes: the time for that has long since passed.

Leo Varadkar arriving at the EU summit.
Leo Varadkar arriving at the EU summit. Photograph: Aris Oikonomou/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

Chris Skidmore, the universities minister and a Sajid Javid supporter, says he is now voting for Boris Johnson.

Here is ITV’s Robert Peston on Boris Johnson’s dilemma.

This is from a Tory in the Jeremy Hunt camp.

Boris and Michael are great candidates but we have seen their personal psychodrama before: it’s time to offer the country someone the EU will actually talk to. Jeremy is the candidate who can best unify the party and deliver Brexit.

From the BBC’s Sarah Smith

This is not hugely surprising – because Michael Gove is a Scot.

Boris Johnson, his main rival, is seen as toxic to Tory prospects north of the border.

Updated

Here’s Michael Gove pitching for the Sajid Javid vote.

Sources close to Sajid Javid are saying he will not be endorsing any of the remaining candidates today.

The ConservativeHome website has been tracking which MPs have declared for which candidates. This morning they had 23 names down for Sajid Javid. They were:

Lucy Allan
Edward Argar
Victoria Atkins
Fiona Bruce
Stephen Crabb

Mims Davies
Kevin Foster
John Glen
Robert Halfon
Luke Hall

Simon Hoare
Nigel Huddlestone
Caroline Nokes
Chris Philp
Mary Robinson

Andrew Selous
Chris Skidmore
Gary Streeter
Derek Thomas
Robin Walker

Mike Wood
Jeremy Wright

It is not obvious where these votes will go. Boris Johnson will pick up a large number, but the contest for the number two slot will be decided by whether Jeremy Hunt can secure more of the new votes available than Michael Gove.

Updated

And this is from Sajid Javid.

He is not saying who he will support in the next ballot.

And this is from Michael Gove.

This is from Boris Johnson.

Fourth round results - Snap analysis

Here are some thoughts on the results.

1) Michael Gove was the real winner from that round. After trailing Jeremy Hunt in the first three ballots, he has finally overtaken him and now must have a very good chance of joining Boris Johnson on the final ballot. Gove’s strengths are that he is the best parliamentary debater in the party, an authentic Brexiter and activist minister, and that he has the zeal to pose more of a threat to Johnson in the final round than Hunt. But for some Tory MPs being a Brexiter and something of a zealot are drawbacks, and Hunt supporters are already asking MPs if they really want a leadership contest that would turn into a “psychodrama” between the two Vote Leave leaders who fell out bitterly in 2016 when Gove sabotaged Johnson’s leadership bid.

2) Sajid Javid’s defeat was expected – but over the last 10 days he revived his campaign sufficiently to enable him to leave the contest with his standing in the party enhanced rather than damaged. What happens to the 34 votes he got this morning will decide whether it is Gove or Hunt on the final ballot.

3) The size of Johnson’s lead, and the two-vote gap between Gove and Hunt, means there is ample scope for tactical vote lending this afternoon. The Johnson camp think beating Hunt would be easier than beating Gove (and a ConservativeHome survey appears to back this up). But we may never find out for certain if vote lending does take place, as Philip Cowley, an academic expert in parliamentary voting, points out.

4) Johnson remains all but unstoppable to become the next prime minister. His team are particularly pleased that he now has the backing of more than half the parliamentary party.

Updated

Fourth round results in full

And here are the results with changes from yesterday, and overall percentages (rounded up or down).

Boris Johnson – 157 – up 14 – 50%

Michael Gove – 61 – up 10 – 19%

Jeremy Hunt – 59 – up 5 – 19%

Sajid Javid – 34 – down 4 – 11%

There were two spoilt ballot papers.

Updated

Javid knocked out as Gove overtakes Hunt, and Johnson extends his lead

Cheryl Gillan, the joint acting chair of the 1922 Committee, is now reading out the results.

All 313 Tory MPs voted, she says. There were two spoiled ballot papers, she says (the first time that has happened in this contest).

Boris Johnson – 157

Jeremy Hunt – 59

Michael Gove – 61

Sajid Javid – 34

Updated

Ann Widdecombe, the former Tory minister who is now a Brexit party MEP, has told the BBC’s Politics Live that she thinks it would be better if the Conservative party let members whittle down the candidates to a shortlist of two, and then let MPs choose the winner (the reverse of how it happens now).

Updated

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

This is from my colleague Paul Johnson, who was watching the Tory Brexiter Jacob Rees-Mogg on Sky News.

We are about to get the results of the fourth Tory leadership ballot.

This is the first time since the Conservative party started balloting MPs on who should be leader in 1965 that voting among MPs has gone through to a fourth round. For those of you interested, this Commons library note (pdf) has all the previous Tory leadership election results, plus a history of how the rules have changed.

Updated

Rory Stewart, the international development secretary, who was knocked out of the Tory leadership contest yesterday, refused to say who he voted for this morning.

He got 27 votes yesterday, all available for other candidates today.

Updated

The Conservative MP Bob Stewart has told the BBC that he would trust Boris Johnson to lead a platoon of soldiers into battle.

Evening Standard says it is backing Johnson for Tory leader because it thinks he's flexible on October Brexit deadline

The Evening Standard editorial about Boris Johnson is well worth reading. In fact, for any student of our probable next prime minister, it is almost an essential text.

Johnson has made himself the runaway frontrunner to be next PM partly by winning the votes of a large number of hardline Brexiters in the Commons, including the most important figures in the European Research Group, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker. They believe he has promised them that he will take the UK out of the EU by 31 October, without a deal if necessary.

Despite some quite strong hints that Johnson is wobbly on this, his supporters are adamant that he has made a firm promise. Here is Liz Truss, the chief secretary to the Treasury, speaking on his behalf yesterday.

Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary, said yesterday that Johnson had looked him in the eyes and told him that he would deliver Brexit by 31 October. David Davis, another former Brexit secretary backing Johnson, said much the same on the Today programme this morning.

But the Evening Standard, which is edited by the pro-remain Tory George Osborne (who takes a very close interest in what is said in his paper’s editorials), says today that one reason it is backing Johnson is that he is the candidate with “the most room for manoeuvre” and that he has been careful, in public, not to “guarantee” that Brexit will happen by 31 October. Today’s editorial says:

Mr Johnson is the candidate who has the most room for manoeuvre to get the country out of the Brexit mess.

That may seem a paradox, as the one who helped get us into that mess, and who again today says he wants “to get Brexit done by October 31”.

But he is careful not to “guarantee” that date — Mr Johnson may be loose with words when it comes to the fates of others but never when it comes to his own.

The editorial also says Johnson is the candidate most likely to persuade MPs to vote for a version of Theresa May’s deal and that he could even end up backing a second referendum.

Ask yourself which of these potential prime ministers is most likely to persuade the Conservative party to vote for a repacked version of the existing deal? The one with the greatest credibility with hard Brexiteers.

Indeed, which of these possible leaders could you imagine making the even bigger leap and asking the country again for its views?

The candidate who first came up with the idea of two referendums back in early 2016. Of course, he denies all this — and, like the other candidates, promises to get a renegotiated withdrawal agreement out of the EU.

Perhaps he will. Most likely he will not. But one thing is for sure, having finally arrived in Downing Street, Mr Johnson won’t be in a hurry to leave it. Opportunism knocks.

Perhaps the Evening Standard has just got it wrong. But Osborne has always been an astute political observer, and he knows Johnson very well.

A better way of reading the editorial is to see it as evidence of just how effective Johnson has been at giving different impressions to different audience. This might be a simple matter of lying (for which Johnson has some form), but it may be more a case of constructive ambiguity being deployed on an Olympian scale (ie, far beyond anything Tony Blair managed). This is the conclusion that Bloomberg’s political editor Robert Hutton came to when he investigated why Tories have such different views as to what Johnson will do. He explains his findings in a Twitter thread starting here.

And here is one of his Hutton’s key tweets.

This strategy has clearly worked very successfully for Johnson in recent weeks.

But there is an obvious problem if you win an election by promising different things to different people. At some point your supporters will turn on you when they realise they have been betrayed.

Updated

Counting starts after fourth Tory leadership ballot closes

Voting has now closed in the fourth Tory leadership ballot.

We are due to get the results at about 1pm.

More from outside committee room 14

Boris Johnson says there is no contradiction between being Brexiter and being one nation Tory

The Evening Standard, which is edited by George Osborne, the Conservative former chancellor, has an editorial backing Boris Johnson for next PM. I will post more on what it says shortly.

By coincidence, Johnson has agreed to give the paper an interview. It is probably not the most revealing he has ever given, but needs must. Here are some of the lines in it.

  • Johnson, the former foreign secretary and favourite in the contest to be next prime minister, says he wants to be “the prime minister who does for the whole country what I did as mayor of London”. He explains:

It’s the same formula: it is education, infrastructure and technology — those three things. I want to level up education funding across the UK. There are too many bits of it that don’t get anything like the per-pupil funding as London. And we need to be doing far more with transport infrastructure. I would like to be the prime minister who does for the Northern Powerhouse rail and connectivity with the West Midlands what I was able to do with the Tube upgrades and Crossrail.

  • He says he thinks the Conservatives can win votes from Labour in traditional Labour areas. He explains:

I think we can recruit voters from everywhere. I think many Labour voters have no interest in the metropolitan obsessions of Jeremy Corbyn with Venezuela or, you know, neo-Marxist economics. The Corbynista anti-Semitism leaves people totally bewildered and cold.

  • He says the Tories need to “turbocharge” their relationship with BME communities and do “much more” to appeal to them.
  • He refuses to say if he will give Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary, a job on his Brexit negotiating team.
  • He says he sees no contradiction between being a Brexiter and a one nation Conservative.
  • He says he would like to be remembered as someone who “helped to unite the country and unite society’.
Boris Johnson leaving his home this morning.
Boris Johnson leaving his home this morning. Photograph: Henry Nicholls/Reuters

Mel Stride, the leader of the Commons, has just announced that MPs will rise for the summer recess on Thursday 25 July.

The Conservative party has said its new leader will be announced in the week beginning Monday 22 July - ie, the week the recess starts - but it has not said exactly when the new prime minister will take over.

Asked if the new prime minister would be in office before the recess, Stride told MPs that he could not say. But Downing Street has said that Theresa May’s successor will be in post before the recess starts.

More from the committee corridor, where Tory MPs have been voting

Here is Sajid Javid with some of his supporters outside committee room 14, where MPs are voting.

'We can do better than Boris Johnson as next PM,' says Hunt

Broadcasters have been doorstepping all the leadership candidates this morning. Boris Johnson did not respond to questions, but the others did.

Jeremy Hunt said the county could “do better than Boris Johnson” for next prime minister. He said:

I’m confident but not over-confident. We’ve had three ballots. In every one of those ballots people have said that I’m not going to do well. Each time I’ve exceeded expectations. I need my supporters to come and say, ‘Yes, we can do better than Boris Johnson as the next prime minister of our country, we can choose someone who the European Union are actually going to talk to, and get that better Brexit deal.’

Jeremy Hunt
Jeremy Hunt Photograph: Sky News

Sajid Javid said he was best placed to take on Johnson because he was a change candidate. He said:

My colleagues, I’m sure, have been thinking carefully during the night and I hope I can pick up some votes ... It has been good news so far already, speaking to colleagues. I’m sure I will be picking up some votes. But these things can be unpredictable. I want to go for it and try my very best and by the end of the day we will have two candidates for the leadership election. One of them will certainly be Boris Johnson. I think I have the strongest case for being the other one, a change candidate that can win over the nation eventually in a general election with Jeremy Corbyn.

And Michael Gove said he was “very confident”. He said:

I’m feeling very confident today. I had a wonderful level of support yesterday from parliamentary colleagues. I’m looking forward to making it through to the final two and looking forward to a civilised debate of ideas on who to make sure that we can make this country better.

From the Times’ Francis Elliott

Boris Johnson as prime minister would have to dump his pledge to get rid of the Irish backstop and then change the British government’s red lines for there to be hope of further Brexit negotiations, the Dutch prime minister has said. As Daniel Boffey reports, Mark Rutte said an incoming prime minister needed to be flexible, adding that he hoped that the rhetoric of the Tory leadership campaign would be dropped once a new leader was confronted with the reality of the UK’s position.

The Independent’s Rob Merrick reckons the UK would be better off with Rutte as the next PM.

Updated

From my colleague Peter Walker, who is outside committee room 14, where MPs are voting

MPs start voting in fourth Tory leadership ballot

MPs are now voting in the fourth ballot for the Tory leadership.

Michael Gove, the environment secretary and Tory leadership candidate, leaving home this morning.
Michael Gove, the environment secretary and Tory leadership candidate, leaving home this morning. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

The official register of MPs’ interests was updated late yesterday, and the new entries show the battle for fundraising among the Tory leadership candidates.

Michael Gove trousered the most, £150,000 in donations over the two-week period covered, including £10,000 from Tory peer Lord Philip Harris, the carpet millionaire whose eponymous chain of academy schools was much-praised under Gove’s tenure as education secretary. Another £20,000 came from Simon Wolfson of the Next chain, also a Tory peer.

Behind him in donations numbers was Rory Stewart, on £108,000, whose donors included David Dein, the former co-owner of Arsenal football club. Dominic Raab was on £93,000 – he also got £10,000 from Harris, who has clearly been spreading his bets.

Jeremy Hunt received £82,000 over the period, with Johnson lagging on £25,000. However, in pervious editions of the register, Johnson had acquired signifcant sums before.

Again, no entries for Sajid Javid, which may or may not be connected to the fact that the former banker is personally very well-off.

Hammond says he will 'fight and fight again' to stop no-deal

In his Mansion House speech tonight Philip Hammond, the chancellor, will also revive his implicit threat to vote against any new Tory leader who tries to take the UK out of the EU without a deal. Echoing a famous speech by Labour leader Hugh Gaitskell in 1960, when Gaitskell said he would “fight, fight and fight again” to reverse a decision by his party to back unilateral nuclear disarmament, Hammond will say:

I cannot imagine a Conservative and Unionist-led government, actively pursuing a no-deal Brexit; willing to risk the Union and our economic prosperity. And a general election that could put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street, to boot.

And I will not concede the very ground we stand on. I will fight, and fight again, to remake the case for pragmatism and, yes, for compromise in our politics – to ensure an outcome that protects the union and the prosperity of the United Kingdom.

In the past Hammond has refused to rule out voting against a Tory government in a no confidence motion to stop a no-deal Brexit. At least two other Tories - Dominic Grieve, here, and Ken Clarke, here - have also said they would vote down a Tory government in these circumstances. At the weekend Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, said there were “a number” of other Tory MPs saying, in private, that they would do the same.

Updated

In the Commons Michael Gove, the environment secretary and Tory leadership contender, is taking questions. In response to a question from Vicky Ford (who is backing the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, for the leadership) asking him to congratulate Hunt on his role in bringing the 2020 UN climate change talks to London, Gove said that Hunt was doing an “outstanding job” on the international stage and that he hoped he would continue.

But there are 27 Rory Stewart votes up for grabs this morning, and Gove also made a point of praising the work done by Stewart, the international development secretary.

Updated

Hammond urges candidates to be 'honest' with public about Brexit options

In her final few weeks in office Theresa May has not been commenting on the Conservative leadership contest and, as a result, she has become a near-invisible presence in our media, because the statements she is making aren’t deemed interesting and aren’t being reported. Philip Hammond, the chancellor, will also be out of office by the end of the month. But, unlike May, he is going down fighting, and in his speech to the annual Mansion House dinner tonight he is going to effectively accuse all remaining Tory leadership candidates of failing to be honest with the public. And he is also going to tell them, in terms, that holding a second referendum may be the only option available to them.

By the time Hammond delivers his speech, the two final leadership ballots for Tory MPs will have concluded and we will know the names of the two candidates on the ballot paper for party members. Boris Johnson will be one of them. The other will almost certainly be Jeremy Hunt or Michael Gove; Sajid Javid, the fourth person still in the race, is expected to be out by lunchtime.

For the last week or so Rory Stewart has been playing the role “Brexit truth oracle” in Tory politics, pointing out the obvious flaws in the glib ‘renegotiate the backstop’ plans being championed by all the main leadership candidates. For his pains Stewart got booted out of the contest last night, receiving just 27 votes. As he takes on the voice of truth role tonight, Hammond will say:

There are some immutable truths that will continue to shape the Brexit debate over the coming months, no matter who is leader of the Tory party:

First, unless there is a general election, the parliamentary arithmetic will not change. Parliament will not allow no-deal; and on the evidence so far, parliament will not support the only deal that is on the table;

Secondly, the European Union will not renegotiate the deal.

And, thirdly, the Irish question, and with it the backstop, will not go away.

It may be that I’m wrong, and a new leader will persuade parliament to accept the deal it has already rejected.

Or that the European Union does a 180-degree U-turn and re-opens the withdrawal agreement.

But if I’m not, if the deal the current PM has negotiated is, in fact, the best deal possible; and parliament continues to reject both it and no-deal, then the question to the candidates is not “What is your plan?”; but “What is your plan B?”.

If your plan A is undeliverable, not having a plan B is like not having a plan at all.

So, the candidates need to be honest with the public. They need to recognise and address the difficult trade-offs inherent in delivering Brexit ...

If the new prime minister cannot end the deadlock in parliament, then he will have to explore other democratic mechanisms to break the impasse.

Because if he fails, his job will be on the line – and so, too, will the jobs and prosperity of millions of our fellow citizens.

As my colleague Jessica Elgot reports, Hammond will also say that, if a new prime minister does opt for a no-deal Brexit, there will be no money available for extra spending or tax cuts.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Michael Gove, the environment secretary and a Tory leadership contender, takes questions in the Commons.

9.30am: Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary and another Tory leadership contender, speaks at a Resolution Foundation event on intergenerational equality.

10am: Tory MPs start voting in the fourth leadership ballot. Voting closes at 12pm, and the result will be announced at about 1pm.

Lunchtime: EU leaders start arriving for their summit in Brussels.

3.30pm: Tory MPs start voting in the fifth leadership ballot. Voting closes at 5.30pm, and the result will be announced at about 6pm.

As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will be focusing almost exclusively mostly on the Tory leadership contest.

You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Philip Hammond
Philip Hammond Photograph: Dominic Lipinski/PA

Updated

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