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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow and Kevin Rawlinson

Tory leadership candidates rule out pre-Brexit election in BBC debate – as it happened

Closing summary

We’re going to close down this live blog now – thanks for reading and commenting. Here’s a summary of the day’s events:

If you’d like to read yet more, my colleague Heather Stewart has produced this excellent article:

Lord Heseltine, who had the Tory whip suspended last month after saying he had voted Lib Dem in the European elections, told Newsnight:

It was a deeply depressing occasion for me because I’m disenfranchised. [The candidates] are all Brexiteers and there are large parts of my party who will never vote for a Brexiteer.

It was a masterclass in avoiding the answers to questions, there was not a single new policy idea and there were a lot of assertions which made no sense. For example, we are going to be tough with Europe, we are going to imply leaving on the October the 31st.

But, when it comes to it, the arithmetic in Parliament is the same. There is no majority for no deal, the Europeans know that, they have said they won’t renegotiate the deal.

So, all this stuff about being tough is the language of city bankers who negotiate deals and know they have to have a hard line. If they fail, two companies move away and continue trading, if they fail this time it is the savings of the British people ... and the coherence of the United Kingdom at risk.

The programme also featured some supporters of the various candidates. The former party leader, Iain Duncan Smith, who’s supporting Boris Johnson, said:

I thought it was clear the whole way through, what he said was we have to leave on the 31st October full stop. That’s what he said. And then he goes on to say it is eminently achievable i.e. getting all the plans ready for the 31st is absolutely right. I am more than happy, I thought that was a very strong commitment we are leaving on the 31st October.

I think if you look at what he said, and I what I believe that absolutely categorically we need to deliver: Number one we have to commit to leaving by the 31st October - he has done that. Two, you can’t renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement you’ll insult the intelligence of the EU.

The junior minister George Eustice, is supporting his boss at Defra, Michael Gove. He told the programme he could rule out the possibility of a pact with Rory Stewart.

Rory has been pushing this around, but it is a bonkers idea. I’ve told him that. In Conservative leadership campaigns – and I’ve seen a few – when a candidate is eliminated, their supporters go all over the place, they scatter like cats. We must let this contest progress and see who’s left standing. You don’t do sort of bizarre pacts as Rory has been suggesting.

The former work and pension secretary, Stephen Crabb, is backing Sajid Javid. He brushed off talk that his man was thinking of packing it in.

Did Sajid Javid look like a man who’s about to throw in the towel or about to be knocked out of the contest? He fought tonight, I thought he gave - in a difficult format – he gave a good display of what he can offer the country.

Referring to reports that Stewart’s campaign had sent almost identical messages to potential supporters following this afternoon’s vote, albeit some more complimentary than others, Crabb said:

It didn’t praise my intellect funnily enough, it made other compliments but not my intellect.

Michael Gove also spoke to the BBC’s Newsnight after the debate and he was somewhat more upbeat – even going so far as to assure the four other candidates they’d have a place on his “team” after he’s elected to the party leadership.

I won the debate. Because I had the most detailed answers and I have a clear plan to how we can deliver Brexit and make sure we get all the benefits of life outside the European Union.

And, of course, there were some other great people there. I love Rory, I love Boris, Saj and Jeremy, they will all be fantastic members of my team.

Here’s a little more on Rory Stewart’s reaction to his own performance during tonight’s debate. He was asked by the BBC’s Newsnight if he agreed he was a “bit lacklustre”.

You’re right, I didn’t find that format really worked for me. I’m going to have to learn how I flourish in a strange format in an alternative reality.

Stewart was seen to take his tie off during the debate. Asked why, he said:

Well, I thought maybe, if I took my tie off, we could get back to a bit of reality. I was beginning to feel on those strange BBC white bar stools, that we were moving off into an alternate reality.

He was asked whether he could carry on to the next stage on his own, or would need to join up with another of the candidates to make it through.

I definitely think that we would all be in a stronger position if we could begin to combine. The problem, of course, that you’re dealing with is that, with politicians, every single person thinks that they should be the leader, so the challenge in all these conversations is who’s coming in behind who

Asked to elaborate, he said:

I’ve said I wouldn’t serve in a Boris government, but I like the other candidates very much and I would be making open offers to all of them.

And he clarified that, in such a situation, he would be looking to be the leader.

Rory Stewart has told Newsnight his performance was a bit “lacklustre” tonight.

That’s all from me for tonight. My colleague Kevin Rawlinson is taking over now.

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

Here is a Twitter thread from Abdullah Patel, who asked the question about Islamophobia in the debate.

And this is what Rory Stewart’s campaign is saying about the debate. A spokesperson said:

Watching the debate it was clear that Rory was the sole voice of reality in the room.

Sunlight on Boris is showing he will continue the Brexit fudge. No realistic plan that can be delivered, built for short term appeasement of colleagues rather than the long term good of our country and politics.

And this is from Rory Stewart. As well as complaining about the BBC chair being uncomfortable, he says he came away from the debate thinking he was the only person committed to Brexit, because the policies backed by the other candidates would just lead to delay, he claimed.

And here is a tweet from Sajid Javid, responding to one from Piers Morgan.

These are from Jeremy Hunt.

These are from Michael Gove.

BBC Tory leadership debate - Verdict from Twitter commentariat

And this is what political journalists and commentators are saying about the debate on Twitter.

They are not impressed.

From the BBC’s Laura Kuennsberg

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

From the BBC’s Nick Robinson

From ITV’s Paul Brand

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

From the BBC’s Andrew Neil

From the novelist and political writer Robert Harris

From the Financial Times’ Robert Shrimsley

From the Daily Mirror’s Kevin Maguire

From the Mail on Sunday’s Harry Cole

From the Times’ Jenni Russell

From the FT’s Sebastian Payne

From Metro’s Joel Taylor

Here is my colleague Peter Walker’s take on the winners and losers tonight.

This is from Adam Fleming, the BBC’s Brussels correspondent,

BBC Tory leadership debate - Snap verdict

It is hard to recall any other televised leadership debate that reflected so badly on the party concerned. This went out in a BBC primetime slot and yet, the biggest issue of the day, Brexit, the five people vying to be the next PM singularly failed to allay the concerns that were put to them by viewers. Will no-deal put by husband out of business? Don’t worry, there will be some “economic turbulence”, but we’ll get through it, said Michael Gove. Will you be able to keep the Irish border open? All the candidates said it should be kept open, but none could say how. In fact, on Brexit, no one could answer the how question at all. And, once the topic turned away from Brexit, there were unfunded promises on tax and a general recognition that public services are stretched - without any acknowledgment that the government all five have supported has been responsible. On social media there have been some complaints that Tory leadership coverage crowds out the Labour/opposition perspective, but it is hard to see how anyone at CCHQ might view this as positive coverage for the party. Jeremy Corbyn should be demanding Tory leadership debates on air every night.

Whether this will make any difference to the leadership election is a different matter. Sajid Javid probably had the best night, mostly for the lovely moment when he bounced his reluctant colleagues into agreeing an external inquiry into Islamophobia in the Tory party. This may come to nothing in the end, but Javid looked decisive. If only solving Brexit were that easy. Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove both did relatively okay. As the candidate with the most distinctive message on Brexit, and on taxation and public services, Rory Stewart would probably win the support of the 50% of the public on that side of the argument. But they are not well represented in the Conservative party, and his evasive answer in response to Javid’s probing on the President Trump/Katie Hopkins tweet probably lost him a lot of ground with liberal Britain. Boris Johnson probably had the worst night. His attempt to excuse his gaffe about Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was an obvious mistake. (Even if, as he claimed, his words did not make a difference to her incarceration, that was not the argument to make - he should have just said he made a mistake, and was sorry.) On Brexit he was unconvincing (as was everyone else.) And forgetting the imam’s name was a very trivial mishap, but it was one that appeared to confirm a negative view many people have of him - that he has a casual disregard for some people who are not white.

Debates don’t make as much difference as people think, and Johnson remains the overall favourite to become next prime minister. But leadership contests are supposed to invigorate a party and leave it looking more attractive to the public. On the basis of tonight, it is hard to see that happening to the Conservatives this summer.

Updated

Q: If you become PM, you will have no mandate from the public. When will you do the right thing and call an election?

Johnson says the Labour party don’t want an election. He does not think anyone in the Commons wants one.

Q: But you said, when Gordon Brown took over as PM, it was arrogant not to have an election. What is different?

Johnson says this is different. The next leader will be taking over at a time of crisis.

Hunt says there must be no election until the government has delivered Brexit.

Stewart says there must be no election until they have recovered trust.

Gove says after Brexit the government can address other things. And then the Tories can take on Jeremy Corbyn, a “discredited Marxist”.

Javid says they must deliver Brexit first.

By 31 October, says Johnson.

And that’s it.

Javid says his 16-year-old daughter has asked him about this a lot.

We have done a lot, but “nowhere near enough”. Becoming carbon neutral will take time. But we need to be a lot more ambitious.

The questioner says none of the panel has impressed her.

Climate change

Q: Would you commit to getting net carbon emissions down to zero by 2025?

Johnson says he will commit to putting the environment at the heart of his programme.

Gove says he has met and praised Greta Thunberg. He has a 25-year environment plan.

Q: [To Johnson] Will you stop Heathrow expansion?

Johnson says he continues to have “grave reservations” about this.

Q: Will you stop it?

Johnson says he has “grave concerns”. There are court cases under way, he says. He will follow them closely.

  • Johnson refuses to say he would stop the Heathrow third runway going ahead - even though in the past he has opposed it strongly.

Updated

Javid asks Stewart why he was not willing to criticise Trump over the Katie Hopkins speech. Stewart is on the defensive, and stresses the importance of diplomacy.

Q: I’m the imam of a mosque. I see the impact of Islamophobia. Do you accept words have consequences?

Johnson says of course he does. In so far as people have taken words out of his articles and escalated, he is sorry for that. But his Muslim great-grandfather came to this country because he thought it would be a beacon of decency.

He forgets the name of the questioner (Abdullah).

Q: Do you accept words have consequences. Your words about Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe did?

Johnson says in this case, he does not think his words did have consequences. It was the Iranian regime that is responsible for what happened to Zaghari-Ratcliffe.

Q: [To Hunt] And you have endorsed President Trump retweeting comments from Katie Hopkins.

Hunt says that is wrong. He backed Trump’s point about Sadiq Khan having a poor record on crime. But he totally rejects Katie Hopkins’ inflammatory language.

He says he is married to an immigrant. His children are half-Chinese. But when they go to school they are treated as equals, because we are a tolerant society.

Javid says he would be happy for an external investigation into Islamophobia in the Tory party.

He invites the others: ‘Do you all agree?’ Half-heartedly, most of them seem to. That’s it then, says Javid. He says it will happen.

  • Javid appears to bounce his rivals into accepting an external investigation into Islamophobia in the Conservative party.

Updated

Stewart says the adult social care system is a disgrace.

We have not funded it properly because we have not got out of party silos, he says.

Gove asks: “What is your plan?”

He says the plan is there in the Dilnot plan.

Hunt says some of the cuts in social care went too far.

  • Hunt says his own government has cut the social care budget too much.

Local authorities need more, he says.

He says we leave dealing with mental health too late.

He says too many children leave school without being able to read and write properly.

Johnson says we need to invest much more in education. And we need to join up our mental health system, he says.

Stewart says you need taxes to fund public services.

He says we can plan for how AI and robotics will change the world of work.

Javid says he has relied on public services.

Q: But you supported cuts?

Javid says he would prioritise health and education.

Tax cuts can sometimes lead to more revenue, he says.

And the country can afford to borrow more, he says.

Public service cuts

Q: I have fostered more than 100 children. What would you do to reverse cuts that have affected children?

Gove says he started his life in care.

He says he has a detailed plan to target money on the poorest.

Q: What cuts would you reverse?

Gove says he introduced changes that make adoption easier. He will not reverse those.

Updated

Gove says he is the candidate most committed to working people.

He says Johnson’s tax plan, which would help people like MPs, is wrong.

He says Jeremy Corbyn is not interested in standing up for working people. He is only interested in defending Iran.

Stewart says everyone else in the contest is promising things that are not realistic. Collectively, his rivals have promised cuts worth £84bn. He says it is not the time for tax cuts. If he could deliver a realistic Brexit, he would spend money on public services.

The questioner says he thinks Hunt was the candidate talking most sense. He says he disagreed strongly with Stewart.

Updated

Tax cuts

Q: I used to vote Tory, but now vote for the Brexit party. What is your plan to lift the tax burden on the working classes?

Javid says the government has addressed the deficit. He thinks we can now cut taxes for working people. He would do this by cutting the basic rate of tax.

Q: [To Hunt] You have said your priority is to cut corporation tax. But it has been cut a lot already, almost every year.

Hunt says cutting corporation tax would turbo-charge the economy. People say the Tories are the party of the rich. They must never fall into the trap of encouraging this idea.

Q: [To Johnson] Under your plan, people on £79,000 would not be in the higher tax rate?

Johnson says, as mayor of London, he increased the minimum wage.

But he also favours having a debate about the threshold for the higher rate of tax. He says people like nurses should not be in this bracket.

Q: Would it definitely go ahead?

Johnson says his priority would be to raise the tax threshold. But it is right to have an “ambition” to lift the threshold for the higher rate of tax.

  • Johnson appears to scale back his commitment to raising the higher rate tax threshold, describing it as just an “ambition”.

Updated

The questioner says the panel have not answered his question. There is a lot of confusion about this in Northern Ireland, he says. He hopes there will be more clarity in future.

Stewart says he is sure that Johnson, like him, has sat in Enniskillen with a sheep farmer. What would he tell him about tariffs?

Johnson says there will be no tariffs.

There will be a standstill, he says, under GATT 24.

  • Johnson suggests using article 24 of the WTO could be part of the solution. This is an option dismissed by many experts.

Gove says he has worked in Northern Ireland. He says he has a plan.

Stewart says the extension Johnson is talking about is conditional on a withdrawal agreement.

Updated

Irish border

Q: How would you solve the Irish border issue?

Hunt says there must be no return to having border infrastructure in Northern Ireland.

He says what was problematic about the backstop was the plan to keep the UK in the customs union until there was a solution to the border issue.

Q: [To Javid] You want to give £500m to Ireland. You think money will just solve this?

Javid says, as a home secretary, he knows how important the peace process has been.

He would have a time limit on the backstop.

Q: The Irish will agree?

Javid says the current backstop will not get through parliament. The Irish understand this.

Q: Leo Varadkar said this weekend there would be no deal without a backstop.

Johnson says he agrees with “Saj and Jeremy”. There will be no return to a hard border, he says.

He says you can solve the border issue during the implementation period after getting a deal.

Stewart says there will be no implementation period unless the UK agrees a deal.

Q: Why will the EU agree?

Johnson says having Brexit party MEPs will make a difference. And the EU doesn’t want no deal, he says.

Updated

Stewart says all the others have to say how they will get no deal through parliament.

Johnson says it is important to prepare for no deal. It is responsible. A huge amount of work has been done, he says.

Javid says we have not prepared well enough in the past. You prepare for no deal precisely because you want a deal, he says.

Johnson says: “Saj is absolutely right.”

Hunt says the questioner’s husband is in the property business. He will know that the only way to get a deal is to be willing to walk away.

But no deal should only be “a very, very last resort”.

The questioner says she is not reassured. She is “really concerned about the future for my children”. One is in the City, one is training to be a vet, and one is going to university. No one can give a good answer as to what will happen if there is no deal.

Johnson says we will come out on terms that protect the UK.

Stewart says if he was prime minister he would rule out no deal.

  • Stewart says he would never accept a no-deal Brexit.

Hunt says that means he would be willing to give up on Brexit.

Updated

No-deal

Q: My husband is in the property business. Under no deal, he could lose his job. Why are you even contemplating no deal?

Because we have to leave the EU, says Gove.

He says a no-deal Brexit “would create some economic turbulence”. Some parts of the UK would suffer. But we must put our democracy first.

Q: Can’t you say anything to reassure the questioner?

Gove says we are a great country. We can get through this.

Updated

Hunt mentions a sheep farmer he met whose business would be destroyed by tariffs on lamb.

That farmer would say to Johnson: ‘You’ve got your dream, but mine [under no-deal] has been destroyed.’

Johnson insists there is a solution to the backstop.

Javid says you need to have a deadline.

Anyone who has negotiated anything knows you have to have a deadline.

Updated

Rory Stewart says MPs must do what the public said. But they also owe people “trust”. It will not be possible to negotiate a new deal by 31 October, he says. It would take a long time to get a new deal.

He would not waste time trying to get a new deal. He would say to colleagues “take the shock of the European elections” and get this done.

Q: This is the May approach that failed, isn’t it?

Stewart says we are in a room with a door, called parliament. He is the only person trying to find the key to the door. Everyone else is running at the door shouting “belief in Britain”.

Gove says we have run into the door three times already. He says Stewart just wants to serve up the same “cold porridge” again.

Q: Would you definitely leave before the end of 2019?

Gove says he would leave in 2019.

  • Gove signals he would leave the EU before the end of 2019.

He said Johnson “joined” him on the Vote Leave campaign.

But he says he disagrees with Johnson about the need to make 31 October a hard deadline.

Updated

Michael Gove says he was committed to Brexit before the others. But he agrees with Hunt about the need to delay a bit if, by 31 October, a deal is close. He says sometimes in football you have extra time.

Sajid Javid thanks the questioner for voting Tory in the past and says it is “essential that we act on those instructions” from the British people. “They are our bosses.”

He says it is fundamental that Brexit must happen by 31 October.

  • Javid rules out any extension of Brexit beyond 31 October.

Brexit timetable

Q: As a lifelong Tory voter, I voted for the Brexit party at the European elections. Can you guarantee that you will get your Brexit plan through the Commons by 31 October?

Boris Johnson says the questioner is right. We must get Brexit through by 31 October. If we don’t, “we will all start to pay a really serious price”. Politicians need to act maturely and soberly and get this done, he says.

Jeremy Hunt says if, by 31 October, there was no prospect of a deal, he would leave. But if they were “nearly there”, he would conclude the deal.

(Neither Johnson nor Hunt address the how part of this question at all.)

Updated

Maitlis says the questions will come in from across the UK.

Emily Maitlis introduces the programme.

She says one of the men on stage will be the next PM.

BuzzFeed’s Alex Wickham has more on the tweets Tory MPs are getting from Rory Stewart. (See 7.52pm.)

And these are from Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt.

These are from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

BBC Tory leadership debate

The BBC debate starts at 8pm.

Emily Maitlis, who will present it, explains here how it will work.

Sturgeon sets out possible new devolution demands that might face next Tory PM

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has sketched out a series of negotiating demands if the next prime minister wants to open talks on new powers for the Scottish parliament, assuming the Tories try to head off a fresh independence vote.

Interviewed by Chris Deerin, the director of the centre-right thinktank Reform Scotland, Sturgeon said that top of her shopping list would be devolved powers over immigration to tackle Scotland’s significant demographic problems, with a falling birth rate and a growing elderly population.

She said the next demand would be greater tax powers for Holyrood, including VAT, national insurance and business taxation. Sturgeon said a “balanced basket of taxes” would allow Scotland to make more sophisticated economic decisions.

And she added that if Boris Johnson or another Tory PM cut income taxes in the rest of the UK, a key pledge of many candidates, she may need to think carefully about further income tax rises in Scotland. “The competitivity of our tax system is something we will never be complacent about,” she said.

She suggested new talks over Scotland’s devolved powers were already on Johnson’s mind, specifically giving Holyrood control over nearly all of its tax and spending decisions. She quipped that after a recent second world war commemoration event, Johnson asked her: “So Nicola: full fiscal autonomy. Does that buy you guys off?”

Sturgeon has been focusing heavily on the rightwards, pro-Brexit drift of the contest to succeed Theresa May as a fresh justification for a new independence referendum, with her government tabling legislation to run such a vote.

Backing for independence has slightly increased in the polls, bringing it within a few points of reaching 50% support. Many commentators and Scottish politicians believe victory for Johnson will tip that into majority support for independence. That could point to Johnson or any other victor starting the conversations Deerin raises.

Nicola Sturgeon
Nicola Sturgeon. Photograph: François Lenoir/Reuters

Updated

Andrea Jenkyns, a Brexiter, says that now Dominic Raab has been eliminated she will vote for Boris Johnson.

There are 30 Raab votes available for redistribution. It would be a surprise if most of them did not go to Johnson, who is now the most pro-Brexit figure in the race.

Of the five remaining candidates in the contest, only he and Michael Gove voted in 2016 to leave. But Johnson resigned from cabinet over Theresa May’s Brexit plan and voted against it twice (before voting for it in the final vote). Gove backed May’s plan all the way and, unlike Johnson, has not ruled out extending article 50 again.

Updated

Here is more on Nicola Sturgeon from my colleague Severin Carrell.

Nicola Sturgeon has said that Boris Johnson’s “almost certain” election as the next Conservative leader has proven how sharply Scotland is now diverging from the rest of the UK, increasing the case for independence.

In a speech to mark 20 years since devolution, the first minister said Johnson’s apparent relish for a no-deal Brexit, and his “gratuitously offensive” opinions about women and minorities are in stark contrast to Scotland’s open, diverse and tolerant politics.

Many Scottish National party politicians and strategists, and some Tories, believe Johnson’s victory will turbo-charge Sturgeon’s quest for a fresh Scottish independence referendum, doubly so if he successfully leads the UK out of the EU.

Speaking to Reform Scotland, a centre-right thinktank, Sturgeon reminded the audience her government was tabling referendum legislation to pave the way for a new vote at some point in future. She said:

It is surely deeply concerning that the Conservative party is even contemplating putting into the office of prime minister someone whose tenure as foreign secretary was risible, lacking in any seriousness of purpose or basic competence and who, over the years, has gratuitously offended so many, from gay people, to Africans, Muslim women and many others.

But while that, for now, is a matter for the Tories it does further illustrate the different political trajectories of Scotland and other parts of the UK. And it raises the more fundamental question of whether the UK and therefore devolution, in its current form is capable of accommodating those differences.

I have to be candid and admit I’m not a neutral observer of these matters but it does seem to me that these days, the unionist offer to Scotland amounts to not much more than: ‘Your views don’t matter, do as you’re told and, if you don’t like it, tough, we’ll do it anyway.’

Brexit starkly illustrates the point. The votes of people here have been ignored. The Scottish government’s attempt at compromise was rejected. And voters in the Scottish parliament opposing Brexit and a subsequent power grab were disregarded.

Updated

And this is from Boris Johnson.

This is from Rory Stewart.

In an article for Guardian Opinion, Tom Kibasi, the head of the IPPR thinktank, argues that, even though Boris Johnson looks unstoppable, Rory Stewart has reshaped the race. Here’s an extract:

Even though Stewart has little chance of winning, he has still reshaped the race. By relentlessly exposing the deceit of his fellow candidates, Stewart’s campaign leaves Johnson weakened as he heads towards the realisation of his only guiding principle: the ambition to be prime minister. Stewart has been very effective at exposing the lie that the withdrawal agreement can be renegotiated through force of personality. He has made plain that a plan predicated on renegotiating it is in truth a plan for a no-deal exit at the end of October. As the Institute for Public Policy Research progressive thinktank has pointed out today, there are still 10 major questions that no-deal advocates have been unable to answer, from fishing to trading agreements.

And here is the whole article.

Updated

Here is the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush’s blogpost on the results. Among other things, he says Rory Stewart is the big winner, but that he may now have hit his ceiling.

The big winner is Rory Stewart, however. He now gets a shot at that big televised debate, where he could yet transform the whole contest. His candidacy may well be reaching its ceiling of support and Johnson’s big lead among MPs means he will be well-placed to choose his preferred opponent, who will not be Stewart.

But even should he fall short at the next hurdle, he ends this contest as the de facto leader of the Conservative opponents of no deal: and as someone who, albeit from the backbenches, will be a major voice in the Brexit debates.

Updated

From the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman

These are from Sajid Javid.

This is from Michael Gove.

Gillian Keegan, the Chichester MP and a supporter of Rory Stewart, told reporters after the result was announced the momentum was with his campaign. She said:

They’re very close now. There’s a clear winner, and between the others there are not many votes

It’s very rewarding. Rory’s campaign is basically honest about where we are as a country. He’s basically telling people the uncomfortable truth in some cases, but he’s being honest. And who knew there was a market for honesty in politics? I’d always hoped that there was.

Mark Francois, the strongly Brexit-minded MP who supports Boris Johnson rather than Dominic Raab, said it was sad that Raab had been eliminated. He went on:

Whoever wins, and I hope it’s Boris, I hope they find a good place for Dom in their cabinet, because I think he deserves it.

Updated

This is from a spokesman for Jeremy Hunt’s campaign.

This is a solid result. It shows a steady step forward, which is exactly what we were expecting. It confirms that Jeremy is the best placed candidate to take on Boris. He’s the only candidate who can unite the country and the party by delivering Brexit.

A source in the Sajid Javid campaign says Javid will not be withdrawing from the contest before the next ballot, which is tomorrow. He put on 10 votes, the same as Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab combined, the source says. “We are fighting tomorrow’s ballot.”

This is from a spokesperson for the Rory Stewart campaign.

This is a fantastic result for Rory – almost doubling his vote – with the biggest increase of all the candidates. This shows his momentum is continuing to build. He can now go all the way to the final two, giving the clear choice that members deserve.

Rory is running a positive campaign that is reaching across the country and he invites MPs to join his team – leave or remain, frontbencher or backbencher.

The moment is here. Together we can get Brexit done, put honesty and trust at the heart of all we do, and make this country fairer, greener and more united.

Updated

Second round results - Snap analysis

Here are some thoughts on the result.

1) This is a messy, inconclusive result that suggests in the one contest that really counts, the fight for the second-place slot on the final ballot, there are potentially three candidates - Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Rory Stewart.

2) Stewart is the candidate with the most momentum. That does not make him a prospective winner by any stretch but there is now a credible path by which he could make it on to the final ballot. He is unlikely to pick up any of the 30 votes that went to Dominic Raab and are now up for grabs because Raab was the most hardline Brexit candidate, and Stewart is at the other end of the spectrum. But if Sajid Javid’s supporters were to tuck in behind Stewart, his vote would rise to 70. In practice, votes never get redistributed that simply, but last week the fight for second place looked like a Hunt/Gove contest. Now Stewart is in contention.

3) Hunt’s lead over Gove has slipped from six votes to five. But Gove could plausibly expect to pick up more of the 30 Raab votes, because they were both leading figures of the Vote Leave campaign. It is very possible that Gove could overhaul Hunt.

4) Johnson is still the overall favourite, but it does feel as if his campaign is losing momentum. There were 50 votes available after the elimination of Matt Hancock, Andrea Leadsom, Mark Harper and Esther McVey. Johnson picked up just 12 of them despite being seen as the overwhelming favourite. He is still not performing as well as Theresa May did in 2016, when she got 50% of the vote in the first ballot. That said, surveys of the membership show he is much more popular with then than any of his rivals and it is still hard to see how he can be beaten. (See 12.23pm.)

5) The result means Raab won’t be taking part in the TV debate tonight, so we may see a repeat of what happened on Sunday night: all the other candidates ganging up on the one candidate (now Johnson) who has not publicly ruled out proroguing parliament to facilitate a no-deal Brexit. Given what Tory members seem to think about Brexit (see 11.05am), that may not do him any harm at all.

6) But it does mean Stewart will be in the debate - and he is a potential threat to Johnson because he has been the one candidate willing to denounce Johnson’s Brexit plan as bogus.

Updated

Second round leadership results in full

And here are the results with changes from last Thursday, and overall percentages (rounded up).

Boris Johnson - 126 - up 12 - 40%

Jeremy Hunt – 46 - up 3 - 15%

Michael Gove – 41 - up 4 - 13%

Rory Stewart – 37 - up 18 - 12%

Sajid Javid – 33 - up 10 - 11%

Dominic Raab – 30 - up 3 - 10%

Updated

Dominic Raab eliminated as five candidates go through to next round

Gillan confirms that five candidates will go through:

Boris Johnson

Jeremy Hunt

Michael Gove

Rory Stewart

Sajid Javid

And all five will be in the debate tonight.

Updated

Cheryl Gillan, the joint acting chair of the 1922 Committee, is now reading out the results.

All 313 Tory MPs voted, she says. There were no spoiled ballot papers.

Boris Johnson - 126

Jeremy Hunt – 46

Michael Gove – 41

Rory Stewart – 37

Sajid Javid – 33

Dominic Raab – 30

Updated

This is from my colleague Peter Walker, who is in committee room 14 where the result is due to announced at 6pm.

Stephen Crabb, the former cabinet minister who is backing Sajid Javid for the leadership, has just told BBC News the party should stop choosing Etonians as leader. He said:

I’ve got nothing against Etonians. The very best boss I ever had in working life was an Etonian, David Cameron, but I think there is an issue for our party if we keep going back to the same school over and over again for our senior politicians. There is something not quite right about that. We pride ourselves on being a meritocratic party ... We should genuinely look like that at the top of the party.

Of course two of the candidates still in the contest, Boris Johnson and Rory Stewart, are Etonians.

Stephen Crabb
Stephen Crabb Photograph: BBC

This is from the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope.

The SNP has described today’s YouGov poll showing a majority of Conservative party members would prefer to go ahead with Brexit even if it led to the break-up of the UK as a “disaster” for Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader. (See 11.05am.) This is from Keith Brown, the SNP’s deputy leader (or depute leader, to use the Scots word the SNP prefers).

The Tory party has clearly gone off the deep end – with their Brexit obsession pushing the party further towards the extremes.

Tory members are so determined to deliver a damaging Brexit they are happy to watch our economy collapse and open the door of No 10 for Nigel Farage to take control of the UK.

And far from prioritising the union, it’s clear Scotland means so little to the members of the Conservative and Unionist party that two thirds are happy for Scotland to become independent if it secures Brexit.

And with this poll suggesting that almost a quarter of Tory members in Scotland would prefer to deliver Brexit for their membership down south even if it means an end to the union it’s becoming clearer that Ruth Davidson has little authority in her party in Scotland. This poll is an utter disaster for her and shows that her authority is seeping away at an incredible rate, leaving her increasingly isolated.

Updated

Here is the BBC’s Emily Maitlis showing the set being used tonight for the Tory leadership debate. There are five chairs on stage at the moment, but it is possible that the BBC might not need them all (if more than one candidate gets eliminated).

Emily Maitlis on the set for the BBC Tory leadership debate
Emily Maitlis on the set for the BBC Tory leadership debate Photograph: BBC

From the BBC’s Iain Watson

The Sun’s Steve Hawkes has had a go at forecasting the result.

From the BBC’s Chris Mason

Nicky Morgan, the Tory MP who chairs the Commons Treasury committee, has warned that borrowing would have to rise under the spending plans proposed by some Tory leadership candidates. Echoing a warning delivered by the chancellor, Philip Hammond, yesterday, Morgan told TheCityUK annual conference that a new prime minister would have around £15bn of “fiscal headroom” set aside to help the economy in the event of a possible no-deal Brexit. She went on:

Were the UK to leave with a deal he [the prime minister] would of course release that headroom as additional spending on other priorities. In either scenario the money will be spent, and in either scenario the chancellor believes he will stay within his fiscal rule. Of course, we are seeing some candidates that say they want a no deal but they also want to spend the headroom. I’ll leave it to all of you to make your conclusions.

Any new spending commitments or tax cuts made by a new prime minister in the coming months that are paid for by using the so-called fiscal headroom that has been built up – while at the same time leaving open the possibility that these commitments would still take place were the UK to leave the EU without a deal – the candidate and the new chancellor may find such a course of action will not be compatible with the current fiscal rules.

Updated

Counting starts after second Tory leadership ballot closes

The ballot has now closed. The papers are being counted, and the result is due at 6pm.

These are from Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt.

More from the committee room where Tory MPs are voting.

The Independent’s John Rentoul has been running a sweepstake on the results.

From the BBC’s Nick Eardley

Here is the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg on the committee corridor doorstep.

David Lidington, the de facto deputy PM and a new convert to the Rory Stewart camp, was singing Stewart’s praises to the media as he went to vote.

Lidington said Stewart, the international development secretary, had “gone out and he’s told it straight as he sees things, and he’s not been afraid, ever, of going into areas of conversation that might be difficult”. Lidington said:

And if the Conservative party is going to form a good working majority in the Commons we’ve got to win back voters from both flanks that we’ve lost. We have to show there are no no-go areas anywhere in the country and anywhere in society for the Conservative party, and I think Rory’s campaign has demonstrated how we can set about doing that.

Asked if his man had the necessary 33 votes to proceed, Lidington said: “Well, I hope so. But I don’t know.”

Earlier, Stewart had said he also hoped to get the votes, but that it would be very close.

David Lidington
David Lidington Photograph: Mark Thomas/REX/Shutterstock

Updated

More from outside committee room 14.

Boris Johnson told business leaders his Brexit plan involved extending transition until December 2021, BBC reports

Simon Jack, the BBC’s business editor, has written a good report of a private meeting that Boris Johnson, the favourite in the Tory leadership contest, had with around 40 business leaders this morning. Johnson is still under pressure to prove he is pro-business in the light of the row about his “fuck business” comment a year ago.

According to Jack, Johnson said he would extend the Brexit transition, which is due to end at the end of next year under current plans, for an extra 12 months, until December 2021. Jack says:

Mr Johnson’s plan appeared to be to defer the negotiations over the problematic Irish backstop till after the UK leaves the EU on 31 October. He proposed extending the transition period till December 2021, which would give everyone enough time to negotiate a free-trade deal and come up with the technology to ensure no physical infrastructure would be required at the Irish border.

Extending the transition until December 2021 is one feature of the Malthouse compromise, a plan that Johnson has enthusiastically backed. But in his recent public remarks on Brexit he has not specifically flagged up this part of the plan as one that he would pursue.

Jack also says that, although Johnson restated his commitment to leave the EU by 31 October with or without a deal, his audience were not convinced he meant it. Jack says:

When asked whether he was prepared to leave with no deal on 31 October, he said that it was not his preferred option, we had to prepare for no-deal and if necessary go through with it.

One attendee I spoke to felt that “his heart wasn’t in that comment”, another said, “the look in his eyes made you question whether he really meant that”.

There have been other hints from Johnson that he will shift on his 31 October deadline. At his campaign launch he refused to say he would resign if the UK was still in the EU after October, and in an interview with the World at One on Friday he said it would be wrong “at this stage” to signal a willingness to delay Brexit into November.

Jack also says Johnson’s decision to leave Liz Truss, the chief secretary to the Treasury, to answer questions after he left did not go down well.

[Johnson] left Liz Truss, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, to answer questions after he left the breakfast. The attendees who I spoke to found her unconvincing - “she lost the room” according to one. As a long-time Johnson lieutenant she may yet win herself a big job.

More from the committee corridor, where Tory MPs are voting.

And here is Steve Barclay, the Brexit secretary, tweeting about the reciprocal voting rights treaty the UK has signed with Luxembourg. (See 3.17pm.)

Xavier Bettel, the prime minister of Luxembourg, says more than 1,000 Luxembourgers in the UK will benefit.

The Brexit minister Robin Walker faced criticism from MPs from all sides when he answered an urgent question on citizens’ rights after Brexit in the Commons earlier. (See 1.02pm.) The Conservative MP Alberto Costa said:

It is inconceivable that that British government let along a Conservative government could allow the rights of British nationals, living, working, studying in the EU to vaporise on the 31 October.

The Lib Dem Brexit spokesman Tom Brake said the “charlatans” and “snake oil” running for leadership of the Tory party would “again tonight on TV be claiming that no deal will present no difficulties”. He said what they meant was “it will present no difficulties for them” but it would mean reciprocal health care for UK citizens retired in the EU would disappear.

Walker told MPs that the government had written to all member states regarding health care and that the government remained “committed to delivering on citizens’ rights” and had already secured a bilateral agreement on voting rights with Spain, Portugal and Luxembourg.

MPs start voting in second round of Tory leadership contest

MPs have starting voting in the next round of the Conservative leadership contest.

This is from my colleague Peter Walker.

Last week a reader asked for a graphic showing which parts of the country are represented by the Tory leadership candidates. So here it is - showing the constituencies represented by the six candidates still in the race, as well as by the four candidates who have pulled out.

The Conservatives dominate seats in the south of England and so it’s no great surprise that four of the six candidates left in the contest are from seats in the south east of England or London. Three of them - Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab - are from just one county, Surrey (which is a fine place, but perhaps not especially representative of the UK as a whole).

Rory Stewart is the only candidate from a seat in the north, Penrith and The Border in Cumbria. That does not directly explain why he is the person most at odds with what all the rest of the candidates are saying on the key issue of the campaign, Brexit, but it may be a factor. Stewart has spoken repeatedly about how he fears the sheep farmers he represents would suffer very badly under a no-deal. Boris Johnson represents Uxbridge and South Ruislip on the edge of west London, which is not an area dependent on lamb exports.

Constituencies represented by Tory leadership candidates
Constituencies represented by Tory leadership candidates

Updated

Next Tory leader could harm Scotland as much in 18 weeks as Thatcher/Major did in 18 years, says Sturgeon

Nicola Sturgeon is expected to warn that the next Tory prime minister will cause more economic damage to Scotland in their first 18 weeks in power than Margaret Thatcher and John Major caused in 18 years in government.

In a speech to mark 20 years of devolution in Edinburgh on Wednesday evening, Sturgeon is due to attack Conservative leadership candidates for failing to rule out a no-deal Brexit this October.

She will argue the drive to set up the Scottish parliament in 1999 came from a hunger for social and political justice following 18 years of Tory rule from Westminster; the Tories ran the Scottish Office – the UK government department charged with running the country, despite having only a small minority of Scottish MPs.

Speaking to Reform Scotland, a centre right think tank, she is due to say:

Immense damage to Scottish communities was caused by an out of touch Conservative party that governed, unelected in Scotland, for 18 years. But now I fear a similarly out of touch Tory party, led by an even more reckless leader, could cause as much damage as Mrs Thatcher and John Major did.

But while they took 18 years, he, whoever it is, could do as much – or more – damage in just 18 weeks. Because by the end of October, Scotland could be heading for a no-deal Brexit.

And crashing out of Europe will be the springboard for a new independence referendum, she said.

That’s why, for all the undoubted successes of devolution, this has to be a time for taking stock. Scotland must have the option of choosing a different course.

The next six months could offer challenges greater than anything we have seen in the last 20 years. In my view they will inevitably require greater powers for Scotland – indeed the full powers that come with independence.

The Thatcher/Major governments are blamed by Labour and the Scottish National party for their aggressive industrial and privatisation policies, which led to significant job losses and closures in Scotland’s heavy industries, including ship-building and coal mining, decimating communities as in other parts of the UK.

Nicola Sturgeon
Nicola Sturgeon Photograph: Ken Jack/Getty Images

Lunchtime summary

  • Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, has has received the backing of Andrea Leadsom ahead of the second ballot for the Tory leadership contest. Johnson was far ahead in the first ballot last week, with 114 votes, more than the next three contenders, Jeremy Hunt (43), Michael Gove (37) and Dominic Raab (27) combined. Sajid Javid, who got 23 votes last week, and Rory Stewart (19) are also still in the contest. The candidate who comes last will get eliminated later, as well as any candidate receiving fewer than 33 votes. Stewart’s team say they think they have 33 votes, but “it’s tight”. Raab’s team say they are “quietly confident” of reaching this threshold, and Javid’s team say it is going to be “close”. All candidates still in the race after the results are announced at 6pm will then take part in a BBC hustings starting at 8pm.
  • Conservative members would be prepared to sacrifice the union, destroy their party or suffer economic damage rather than give up on Brexit being delivered, a poll has suggested. (See 11.05am.)

I’ve not met a single European leader who doesn’t want to avoid no deal and if you put in front of them someone they are prepared to negotiate with, someone they trust — no one ever does a deal with someone they don’t trust — I am that person.

  • Michael Gove has urged Tory MPs not to put Rory Stewart in the final two for the ballot of party members. In an article for the Times (paywall), he suggested this would polarise the party because Stewart did not believe in Brexit. He said:

It would be a mistake to put forward two candidates to the final round who will polarise our party. We need candidates who both embrace Brexit’s opportunities and can deliver. I’m the only candidate in this race who both believes in Brexit through and through and who all the other contenders would willingly serve under.

In an interview on the Today programme this morning Sajid Javid also claimed Stewart was a remain candidate. Stewart denied this, and said he was now committed to delivering “a moderate and pragmatic Brexit”. (See 10.32am.)

It’s been quite hard keeping up with all the anonymous quotes from friends of the chancellor in recent days. But I would simply say he was in cabinet this morning and offering his views across a wide range of topics.

Dominic Raab, the Tory leadership contender, has released a campaign video today stressing his commitment to education, and to expanding apprenticeships.

Paul Crowther, the man who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage during a city centre walkabout, has been sentenced to 150 hours’ unpaid work, the Press Association reports. He has also been ordered to pay £350 in compensation to Farage for damage to a lapel microphone and for suit cleaning. Crowther admitted common assault and criminal damage.

Here’s the full story:

Updated

From the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman

Updated

Alberto Costa, the Conservative MP who pushed for a rethink of government policy on European citizens’ rights post-Brexit, said it was no surprise that Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator rejected the UK proposal.

In the House of Commons later today, he will use an urgent question to call on the government to launch a UK taskforce to address the issue. He told the Guardian:

“The UK government needs to do a lot lot more. Simply to write a letter to Barnier and expect a positive response is not good enough. The government have not been trying enough to secure EU citizens’s rights.”

Costa, whose parents immigrated from Italy to the UK, was forced to resign as parliamentary private secretary to the Scotland secretary, David Mundell, in February after tabling the amendment to ringfence EU citizens’ right, against what was then government policy.

He won unanimous backing in the house and is now calling for a taskforce to be set up to secure all rights of EU citizens in the event of no deal. He also wants those citizens to be able to simply declare they are living and settled in the UK rather than be forced to apply to remain in the UK under the Home Office’s settled status scheme.

Although Barnier rebuffed the UK government, it is widely accepted that the European commission does not have the power to ringfence EU citizens’ rights even if it could re-open the withdrawal agreement. This is because the power over issues such as healthcare and social benefits is a national competency, and Brussels cannot order member states to do a deal.

“Never before in peacetime have the rights of innocent millions of people been put on the table, that’s 1.2 million in the EU and 3.6 million in the UK,” Costa told the BBC.

Alberto Costa
Alberto Costa. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Updated

The Tory leadership contender Michael Gove being questioned by reporters in Whitehall earlier today.
The Tory leadership contender Michael Gove being questioned by reporters in Whitehall earlier today. Photograph: Luke Dray/Getty Images

The ConservativeHome website conducts regular surveys of Conservative party members, including covering who they would like as their next leader. According to the latest, published today, 55% of members want Johnson – his highest ever score in these tables. Rory Stewart is in second place, but he is well behind, on just 16%, followed by Dominic Raab, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid, all in single figures.

Survey of Tory members
Survey of Tory members Photograph: ConservativeHome

Updated

These are from the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn.

This is from David Gauke, the justice secretary, who is backing Rory Stewart.

In a Coffee House blogpost last night, Fraser Nelson, the Spectator editor, suggested the Boris Johnson camp might lend some votes to Jeremy Hunt to ensure Hunt makes it through to the final two rather than Michael Gove, an opponent seen as more of a threat. Nelson says:

At the hustings held by the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs this evening, the question wasn’t who was going to win but who should be sent to put Boris Johnson through his paces before he wins. Word is that Team Boris is lending about 15 votes to Jeremy Hunt, who he’d most like to go up against. Which isn’t much: Boris is understood to have over 150 supporters now – so he could lend 40 votes to Hunt if he wanted. But he is more likely to keep the number low so the vote-lending isn’t obvious.

Ignoring the first rule of journalism (the editor is always right – at least, she always is at the Guardian), James Forsyth, the Spectator’s political editor, says he’s not convinced.

Updated

Turning back to polling, Opinium has published the results of a poll of people who watched at least some of the Channel 4 Tory leadership candidates debate on Sunday night. Among those who watched at least some of it, Rory Stewart was seen as the winner.

But Stewart was getting a lot of his support in this survey from Lib Dem and Labour backers. Among Tory supporters he was only narrowly ahead of Jeremy Hunt, the poll suggests.

The poll also suggests that people reacted particularly badly to Michael Gove.

(This result may reflect the important but often overlooked point that assessing who “wins” a debate is not straightforward. It is possible to win, in the sense of making arguments that clearly refute those of your opponents, while at the same time coming over as less likeable.)

Opinium also says Stewart is now ahead on the measure of who would make the best PM. In its recent previous polls, Boris Johnson was ahead on this measure.

As ever, it is best not to read too much into the findings of a single poll. This one should be treated with particular caution because it is based on a survey of just 610 people.

Updated

Steve Barclay, the Brexit secretary, has released the text of a letter (pdf) he sent to Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, reaffirming the government’s commitment to protect the rights of EU nationals in the UK “in any [Brexit] scenario” and urging the EU to work with the UK on preparing plans to protect the rights of EU nationals in the UK and UK nationals in the EU in the event of no deal. This has been welcomed by the3million, which represents the 3 million EU nationals in the UK.

Updated

Majority of Tory members care more about delivering Brexit than preserving union, poll suggests

YouGov has published a remarkable poll, based on a survey of almost 900 Conservative party members. Officially they are members of the Conservative and Unionist party. But these findings suggest this party no longer exists – because effectively it has already become the Brexit party.

Here are some of the key points.

  • A majority of Conservative party members care more about delivering Brexit than they do about keeping either Scotland or Northern Ireland in the UK, the poll suggests. By more than two to ne, they would rather have Brexit, even if it led to Scotland becoming independent. They seem to worry a tiny bit more about losing Northern Ireland, but most would accept this as the price of Brexit. A majority of members would also rather have Brexit even if it led to “significant damage” to the UK economy. And amazingly, a majority would still prefer Brexit even if it led to the Conservative party being destroyed.
Survey of Conservative party members
Survey of Conservative party members Photograph: YouGov
  • Tory members see the Brexit party as a bigger threat than the Labour party, the poll suggests.
Poll of Tory members
Poll of Tory members Photograph: YouGov
  • Almost half of Conservative members would be happy to have Nigel Farage as their leader, the poll suggests.

Updated

Philip Hammond is so frustrated by Theresa May’s plans to spend billions of pounds on projects to shore up her legacy that he considered resigning, according to government sources. As Rowena Mason reports, the chancellor is unhappy with the prime minister’s decision to set out plans to spend up to £27bn on education over three years, including building new schools and paying teachers higher wages.

John McDonnell, Hammond’s Labour shadow, says the chancellor should have resigned over the impact of his austerity policies.

Labour has been fined a total of £1,750 for inaccurate quarterly donations reports and an inaccurate spending return for the last general election, the Electoral Commission has said. As the Press Association reports, the elections watchdog also issued a £200 penalty to the Conservative party in Wakefield for the late delivery of its 2017 statement of accounts, which it paid on 23 May. Labour said: “We were happy to clear up these minor administrative issues.”

Updated

Stewart rejects Javid's claim that he effectively wants UK to remain in EU

Sajid Javid, the home secretary, got the main 8.10 slot on the Today programme. Here are the main points from the interview.

  • Javid claimed that Rory Stewart, one of his leadership rivals, was effectively the remain candidate. He said:

I think [Stewart’s] effectively telling us that we should remain in the EU and there is a small constituency amongst my colleagues that would rather remain than leave, and I think that is part of the challenge that we have to deal with. And so I think up to a point Rory can attract that support but it’s not going to get us any further.

Stewart later posted a tweet saying Javid was wrong.

I may have been culture secretary but I don’t have the oratory of Cicero, it’s less Homer’s Iliad and more Homer Simpson. But I try my best to connect and I think it’s very important as a modern Conservative party that we reach out to those modern audiences.

This seemed a particular reference to Boris Johnson, who studied classics at Oxford. Javid said it was be a mistake if the final two candidates in the contest ended being very similar.

If we end up in a situation where the final two, three, four even are people from similar backgrounds with similar life experiences and it will look like a debate at the Oxford Union and I just don’t think that’s healthy for the Tory party.

  • Javid said if he were up against Johnson in the final round of the contest, he could “test” him and make him even stronger. Javid explained:

Even if it is Boris [as Tory leader], he needs to be properly tested. There cannot be a coronation. And I think, given my experience outside parliament, 20 years in business/finance, in the nine years I’ve been in parliament, I’ve worked in five government departments, I’ve ran four of them, so I can really test Boris on so many issues, and he will come out an even stronger Boris. That’s good for the whole country.

Normally in a leadership contest candidates set out to defeat their opponents, not help them emerge stronger. The fact that Javid is making an argument like this (and Michael Gove was saying something a a bit similar yesterday) is a sign of how inevitable Johnson’s victory now seems.

Sajid Javid leaving home this morning.
Sajid Javid leaving home this morning. Photograph: Luke Dray/Getty Images

Updated

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

Stewart says even if he was MI6 spy he would not be allowed to admit it

At the press gallery hustings yesterday Rory Stewart, the international development secretary and Tory leadership candidate, was asked if he had ever been in MI6? No, he replied (although he does have a family link – his father was deputy head of the organisation).

But that answer may not as straightforward as it sounded. Today the Daily Telegraph has splashed on a story (paywall) quoting a Whitehall security source saying Stewart did work as a spy for at least seven years.

This morning on the Today programme, Stewart suggested his denial was meaningless. Asked if the law would allow him to say he had been in MI6 if he had been, Stewart replied:

No, and in fact the law wouldn’t allow newspapers to reveal the identity of intelligence officers.

Nick Robinson, the presenter, then put it to Stewart that he could not answer this question, and that he just had to say he served his country. Stewart replied:

I definitely would say I served my country and if somebody asked me whether I am a spy I would say no.

Robinson then said that that no “might not mean what everybody would mean by no” and Stewart did not challenge this.

Presumably Stewart could have just refused to answer the question yesterday about being a spy, but that would have been taken as confirmation.

Rory Stewart arriving for cabinet today.
Rory Stewart arriving for cabinet today. Photograph: Leon Neal/Getty Images

Updated

Boris Johnson gets fresh boost as Leadsom backs his campaign

Good morning - on what will be an exciting day in the Conservative leadership contest.

We’ve got two big events. First, the second round of voting by MPs takes place this afternoon. There are six candidates still left in the contest – Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Sajid Javid and Rory Stewart – and at one least one will be eliminated today (the person who comes last) and possibly more (because anyone not getting at least 33 votes will be out, under a new threshold introduced for this contest). Last week, it looked as though the only real interest would lie in whether Hunt or Gove would clinch the number two slot in the ballot for party members, up against Johnson, who is ahead by a mile. But since the first ballot last Thursday the Johnson and Stewart campaigns have been making impressive gains. At 6pm we might find out:

a) Is Hunt still in second place?

b) Who’s been forced out?

c) Does Stewart have any chance of getting on the final ballot?

d) Does Johnson look even more unstoppable?

And then, about two hours later, we will get the BBC debate featuring all the candidates still in the contest. Debates normally don’t influence campaigns as much as people expect them to, but they can, and this one is eagerly awaited because Johnson, the runaway frontrunner who has largely avoided media scrutiny for months, has agreed to take part. Can any of the candidates upend him in a TV studio? We will find out.

Johnson received a boost this morning when Andrea Leadsom, the former leader of the Commons who was a candidate herself until forced out herself last week, used an LBC interview this morning to endorse him. As LBC reports, she explained her decision like this:

I’m going to be backing Boris Johnson for the next prime minister. Essentially, there’s two key reasons. One is I think he is the best placed to get us out of the EU at the end of October. His view and mine are closely aligned there.

Secondly, I do believe he is an election winner. He is someone who can bring the country and the party back together and take us forward in a positive way.

And the third thing which is more nuanced really is that he and I share a scepticism about the HS2 project on the grounds of value for money.

But he, at the same time, has a big commitment to improving infrastructure in the country to a pro-business agenda that will really get our ecomony to be motoring, which is essential in a post-Brexit world.

Leadsom is a hardline Brexiter and her decision will be a disappointment to Raab, who will need to votes of people like Leadsom if he is to stay in the race.

Her comments about Johnson’s view on HS2 are also fascinating. As my colleagues Rowena Mason and Jessica Elgot report, there are claims that Johnson has been telling some supporters in private that he opposes the project, while telling others that he will allow it to go ahead.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Theresa May chairs cabinet.

1.30pm: Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leadership contender, takes part in a Mumsnet Q&A.

3pm: Tory MPs start voting in the second round of the leadership ballot. Voting closes at 5pm, and the result will be announced at about 6pm.

8pm: All the Tory leadership candidates left in the contest will take place in a BBC debate chaired by Emily Maitlis. You can submit potential questions on the BBC website here.

As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will be focusing almost exclusively mostly on the Tory leadership contest and the debate. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another at the end of the day.

You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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