In the early hours of 9 June 2017, the Conservatives – stripped of their majority despite starting the election campaign with a 24-point poll lead – were asking themselves two questions: what went wrong and how can we fix it.
As 2018 dawns, it is clear that Theresa May has tasked herself with solving the second part of that puzzle, starting the year with a fair-sized reshuffle and a domestic policy drive focused on housing, school standards, the environment and the NHS.
She has reached this point after her party sought to answer the first question posed in the aftermath of the election result. As the post-election turmoil played out visibly in Westminster, behind the scenes Tories quickly embarked on internal research and polling that brought some good news but also threw up worrying statistics, including around age, ethnicity and gender.
The party had boosted its support among working-class voters, but Labour had not just won over younger voters in big numbers but had a lead right up to the crossover age of 47, up from 34 at the start of the campaign. Labour had stretched its lead among minority ethnic groups and tied with the Tories when it came to women. May’s party had secured a strong lead among men, according to YouGov.
Aside from the demographics, some policies were of particular concern, with a promise to give MPs a free vote on foxhunting polling disastrously. As May turns her attention to possible solutions, that policy has been ditched. In her interview with the BBC’s Andrew Marr, May made clear that her aim now was to show she had learned the lessons of the 2017 general election.
The first step is the reshuffle that will shake up the cabinet but specifically aim to refresh what some advisers call the “talent pipeline”. They want more Tory MPs at ministerial level who look and sound representative of the country as a whole – and of those voters the Tories desperately need to win back. That means more ministers in their 30s and 40s, more women and more from a minority ethnic background.
The aim will be to help rising stars secure the experience they need to one day be propelled into cabinet, rather than to transform the top team overnight (although the pipeline really ought to be bulging given that David Cameron began making the same argument years ago).
To some extent this is also a show of political strength for the prime minister, who had previously been warned that in any reshuffle the number of winners is always dwarfed by those sacked or overlooked.
Alongside new personnel will come a policy refresh because while the Conservatives believe they must stick to their Brexit mantra, they also want this to be the year they show they are about more than leaving the EU, and in doing so address not just the 2017 problems but also the underlying factors in the previous year’s Brexit vote.
According to advisers, a push on school standards is about driving up the skills that will help British workers compete, while other policies will aim to address the quality and affordability of housing (which May has said is her key aim) and a healthy environment.
An effort to show they are more caring, in particular about animals, is also likely after a story suggesting otherwise, which advisers branded “fake news”, went viral on social media. Using technology better will also be key, with new staff members at CCHQ and Downing Street charged with improving the Tories’ digital strategy. Labour continues to perform well in social media terms.
While there has been some fiscal loosening and a slight change in tack over the question of austerity – for example, lifting the public sector pay cap – overall the Tories still want to contrast themselves to Labour in this area. But that could be a high-risk strategy.
And while May can talk about domestic policy all she likes, with a packed parliamentary agenda driven by Brexit, these will not be legislative drives and could easily be dismissed by critics as too little too late.
Jeremy Corbyn will start the new year determined to address the anti-austerity mood he successfully tapped into in 2017. Labour will focus on families struggling with personal debt, stagnant wages and unaffordable housing, press manifesto promises around nationalisation as commuters face record fare increases, and shine a spotlight on the NHS winter crisis. The party will try to capitalise on political breakthroughs achieved through community organising.
Labour does not believe a move by May to shake up lower ministerial positions will register with voters. It wants 2018 to be about a bigger and more fundamental choice between the two big parties in British politics, who will be fighting over similar policy areas but who remain as ideologically divided as ever.
