The Conservatives can expect to lose 800 or more seats at the local elections this week, as voters punish Theresa May’s administration for failing to pass a Brexit deal, a leading Conservative analyst has said.
In his latest projection for Thursday’s polls, in which more than 8,000 council seats in England are being contested, the Tory peer Robert Hayward suggested his party could lose about 500 to the Liberal Democrats, and 300 to Labour.
He blamed his party’s failure to assemble a majority for the prime minister’s withdrawal agreement for his gloomy forecast, and predicted turnout would be unusually low because of “disenchantment” with all the major parties.
“I have heard of no canvasser of any party who has received a detailed dissertation re Brexit. It is therefore likely that had Mrs May’s deal, or anything like it, been approved the Tories would have fared markedly better than they are likely to,” he said, adding: “The elections might even have been about local issues.”
A poor showing will be a fresh blow to May’s shattered authority, and increase the pressure on her to set out a timetable for her departure – and signal how she plans to break the impasse at Westminster.
Cross-party talks are expected to resume on Monday, but Downing Street has been forced to delay a high-risk plan to table its key piece of Brexit legislation.
Ministers had hoped that by tabling the withdrawal agreement implementation bill (WAB), they could win over Labour MPs, by including reassurances on issues including workers’ rights and environmental standards.
But the Labour leadership has signalled it is not willing to support the progress of the legislation unless the government first compromises on the Brexit deal, including by promising a customs union.
The SNP’s Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, told his party’s spring conference on Sunday that its 35 MPs would not be supporting the WAB, and urged Labour to join them.
“We will not, not ever, support this damaging blindfold Brexit deal. Theresa May has failed to protect our economy, our communities and all of our futures,” he said.
Government sources insist the WAB plan has not been abandoned altogether – but acknowledge that it depends on securing backing from Labour, either by striking a deal in the cross-party talks, or winning over a caucus of backbenchers in Leave-supporting seats.
If the WAB was defeated at its second reading – when MPs vote on the principle of allowing it to proceed – the government could not present it to MPs again without proroguing parliament, and kicking off a new session.
Such a dramatic move would require a new Queen’s speech, and potentially a fresh confidence and supply agreement with the disillusioned Democratic Unionist party.
The shadow business secretary, Rebecca Long-Bailey, denied on Sunday that the talks were running into the sand, insisting on Sky News that Labour had had “fantastic discussions” in some areas.
The local elections, which Downing Street insiders anticipate will be “miserable” for them, are regarded as a mere foretaste of the potential humiliation in store at next month’s European elections, which the government had hoped to cancel.
An Opinium poll for the Observer put Labour neck-and-neck in the European elections with Nigel Farage’s fledgling Brexit party, at 28%, and Conservative support at just half that level.
