We've now had three polls, from two different polling organisations, since last week's budget, and they're all saying much the same thing, which suggests that they are worth taking seriously. The news is dire for Labour: on current form, the Tories are heading for a landslide.
For the record, here are the figures:
ComRes in the Independent (published today)
Conservatives: 45 (up five from ComRes last month)
Labour: 26 (down two)
Lib Dems: 17 (down one)
Conservative lead: 19 (up seven)
YouGov in the Sunday People (published on Sunday)
Conservatives: 45 (up four from YouGov in the Telegraph last month)
Labour: 27 (down four)
Lib Dems: 17 (no change)
Conservative lead: 18 (up eight)
YouGov in the Daily Telegraph (published on Saturday)
Conservatives: 45 (up four from YouGov in the Telegraph last month)
Labour: 27 (down four)
Lib Dems: 18 (up one)
Conservative lead: 18 (up eight)
I've fed the ComRes figures into two websites that provide election predictions on the basis of share of the vote numbers, Electoral Calculus and UK Polling Report. Electoral Calculus says the Tories would have a majority of 186. UK Polling Report, which uses a slightly different methodology, predicts a majority of 170. Either way, it's still pretty big.
4.30pm update: Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting has had a look at the detailed ComRes figures and he's discovered "one scary statistic for Brown Central". It's this:
A total of 240 of those surveyed said they had voted for the party that was led by Tony Blair in 2005. Yet over the weekend, when the fieldwork was taking place, only 120 told the pollster they planned to do so next time.This is the full split of the 240 Labour 2005 voters:
120 (half) voting Labour again
41 (a sixth) voting Conservative
15 (1 in 16) voting Lib Dem
7 (more than 1 in 40) voting SNP/PC
6 (1 in 40) voting Green
4 (1 in 60) voting BNP
5 voting for another party
Remainder "not voting"/"don't know"/"won't say".
