The Conservative party is in existential crisis over the electoral threat posed by Reform UK. But a recent experiment shows that not only is the new rightwing party usurping the old guard in the polls – it’s also eclipsing the Tories on the dating market.
In recent local elections, Reform took control of ten councils in England, adding 677 councillors. The Conservatives, meanwhile, lost 674 councillors and control of 16 councils.
Over on the love market, a recent study I co-authored shows people were more likely to swipe right (“like” or indicate interest) for a Reform voter than a Tory. While Reform voters had a 39% chance of a match, Conservatives had 35%.
The parties of the left and centre had the highest match rates overall, with Labour supporters having a 52% chance of a match, Greens on 51% and Liberal Democrats on 49%.
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These results come from a behavioural experiment involving 2,000 people in Britain. We asked participants to evaluate online dating profiles to see how politics shapes a person’s chances of getting a match.
Participants were shown AI-generated dating profiles — over 20,000 in total — and asked to swipe left (“dislike”) or right (“like”). The profiles varied randomly across characteristics like looks, ethnicity, job, hobbies and, most importantly, political affiliation.
Some profiles expressed support for mainstream parties — Labour, Conservatives, Greens, Lib Dems as well as rightwing newcomer, Reform UK.
What really stood out in the experiment was how much dating preferences followed political lines. People weren’t necessarily put off by more extreme views – but they were more likely to reject someone from the opposite side of the political spectrum.
The politics of dating polarises. Conservative voters would rather date someone further to their right (Reform) and Labour voters would rather date someone further to their left (the Greens) than cross the Labour-Conservative divide in the centre.
While people tend to prefer partners who vote for the same party as them, they also prefer partners who belong to the same left and right “camp”.
Dating preferences were heavily split along the left-right divide, with leftwing voters 37% more likely to reject someone on the right than vice-versa. This explains, in part, why rightwing people are less popular on dating apps overall, compared with leftwing people.
Given that the population of dating app users tends to be younger (and therefore less rightwing), the politics penalty is skewed against rightwing folks. In effect, the “number of fish in the sea” willing to date them is smaller than the number they themselves are willing to date.
Men and women reacted largely in a similar way. There’s often talk of a gender divide in rightwing support – particularly among younger people. But we found no evidence that women were any more or less likely than men to swipe left on Reform UK supporters.
So, the Conservatives are not only at risk of electoral annihilation thanks to the Reform threat. They’re also denying their supporters dates. In a dating world shaped more by political alignment than ideological distance, the chances of success depend less on what someone believes — and more on which side they’re on.
Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte receives funding from the British Academy.
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