Theresa May’s cabinet is now largely agreed on the need for some form of transitional deal after Brexit – but what might that look like?
For days now Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has been advancing his ideas publicly through the media and behind the scenes during roundtable meetings with business figures.
Two clear themes have emerged: firstly, that the chancellor has privately said that the UK ought to be looking for something that looks like a Norwegian or Swiss style “off-the-shelf” agreement during this implementation period, and secondly, that even if free movement technically ends, the country won’t immediately apply immigration controls.
One senior No 10 figure claimed that Hammond was flying kites “to see what he can get away with”. They went as far as to suggest they believed that Hammond might even be “part-sanctioned” from the top.
So what then of the apparent slapdown of the chancellor at a briefing by the prime minister’s official spokesman? To some extent, the best image to conjure right now is of smoke and mirrors.
While it is likely to be true that the government is not “looking for an off-the-shelf model” it is probably also the case that any transitional agreement will look awfully like another option already out there.
And while it is also true that Brexit means free movement is likely to technically end in March 2019, it is also the case that Hammond and a string of other senior ministers (including the home secretary) think the UK should delay imposing immigration controls beyond asking EU citizens to register.
Which begs the question: when is free movement not really free movement, and when is bespoke really “off-the-shelf”?
The reason for what seems to be an argument over semantics is that the government – acutely aware of that 52% Brexit vote – wants to make sure that what they end up with in 2019 looks like a significant change.
But that doesn’t mean that it will instantly amount to that much. In fact, Hammond’s suggestion that “many things will look similar”, probably trumps any of the carefully worded statements from No 10.
The chancellor has unquestionably grown in stature and importance since the Conservative party lost its majority in June’s election.
Hammond appears to have the support of other cabinet members, like Amber Rudd who has made clear that EU citizens will still be free to come and work in the UK after 2019 so long as they register.
Another cabinet minister echoed the chancellor’s language saying they supported his “sensible approach that enables us to deliver the referendum result whilst protecting the economy from a cliff-edge”. Asked about free movement, the response was “it will clearly take some time before we will have full migration controls for EU citizens”.
One question, however, is what Boris Johnson makes of all of this. The foreign secretary emerged momentarily on Sunday to hit out at Vince Cable over rumours that he was set to resign. Well, sort of.
The response to the Lib Dem leader’s suggestion that the cabinet remained divided on free movement and transition came from the Tory MP’s spokesman.
“Boris and Philip Hammond are working closely to take the UK out of the EU and are not going to be diverted from that important task,” he said.
Which was the first time that the face of the leave campaign had entered the ongoing debate over a transitional deal after Brexit for some time, with what looked like a robust backing for Hammond’s position.
But Johnson will also know that when 52% of the electorate backed Brexit, they were backing him. Which means that failure to deliver will – ultimately – be more costly for him politically, than his colleague the chancellor.
