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Daily Mirror
Daily Mirror
Sport
Ben Husband

Top-four race analysed by experts after Liverpool close gap on Man Utd and Newcastle

It’s a race that looked all but over just a matter of weeks ago.

While the battle for the title has always looked destined to go to the wire. The two teams joining Manchester City and Arsenal appeared to be fairly nailed on.

Manchester United and Newcastle have occupied those spots and both looked to have enough in the tank to see off any late competition. But from nowhere, Liverpool are back in the mix.

After months of indifferent performances, the Reds have strung together six wins in a row at the perfect time. And after Sunday saw both Man Utd and the Magpies drop points, the table has become intriguingly tight.

Liverpool are now just a point behind their rivals from Old Trafford and three behind Newcastle, albeit having played a game more. And lurking in the background, with even more games in hand sit Brighton.

So can the two Uniteds be reeled in before the end of the season? We asked our Mirror Football team.

John Cross

The battle for top four is becoming every bit as nervy as the scrap to avoid relegation.

I’m convinced Newcastle will make it because of the atmosphere and power at St James’s Park. Their fixtures are far from easy - they’ve got Brighton to come but should beat Leicester and win at Leeds.

But Manchester United will be looking over their shoulders because Liverpool are getting results just at a time when Erik ten Hag’s men have had a dip in form.

Logic tells you that United should do it as three of their four games are at Old Trafford and are against Wolves, Chelsea and Fulham.

But the nerves are there and now we’ll see United’s strength of character because you wouldn’t back against Liverpool to carry on winning.

I love watching Brighton. They’re a great story and can still cause a big threat because of their games in hand. But they’ve still got Arsenal, Manchester City and Newcastle to come. I think they’ll end up in the Europa League but what an achievement that is.

Andy Dunn

For all the Premier League ’s self-promotion and commercial riches, it is actually a damning indictment of the standards below Manchester City and Arsenal that Manchester United will qualify for the Champions League.

As we all saw in the game against West Ham - and in countless others - they really are not THAT good.

But the lame efforts of the likes of Liverpool and Spurs mean United, along with Newcastle, will finish in the top four.

Erik ten Hag’s side play four teams who have nothing to play for while Eddie Howe’s men should take care of business in the home matches against Brighton and Leicester City.

While their football is still not at its fluent best, Liverpool are likely to win their remaining three games and keep the third and fourth placed teams honest.

But Newcastle United will hold on to third spot and Manchester United will finish fourth.

Liverpool have won six in a row to reignite their previously fizzling top-four aspirations (Getty Images)

Neil Moxley

It’s going to the wire. Liverpool have flown into the mix from absolutely nowhere after winning six on the spin.

The Reds have three games to go - two against relegation-threatened Leicester and Southampton and another at Fortress Anfield against Villa - you have to believe they’ll reach 71 points.

That means - as long as the goal difference remains healthy that Newcastle Utd have to win two and Manchester Utd three.

Taking the Toon first, despite their blip you’d expect them to land two victories out of their remaining four.

And Manchester United have three games at Old Trafford, all against beatable opposition.

You’d have to say that the two in possession of those remaining spots are in the box seats. But, I think the fight is likely to go to the final day.

Simon Bird

Newcastle was once a city of footballing over-reactions. A defeat like that against Arsenal could spark knee-jerk pessimism and gloom. That’s changed this during the last brilliant 15 months of winning, striving, improving and now challenging for the top four.

Newcastle are left bruised by the Gunners’ deserved 2-0 win at St James Park. But this was not a Toon side crumbling, looking shaky or bottling it. Far from it, Arsenal has to endure a storm of relentless attacks, chances missed, a heroic Ramsdale save and Granit Xhaka block, two hit posts, and a VAR penalty over-rule to win. Newcastle lost, but were far from bad.

They need seven points to stay in the top four if Liverpool win their last three games. Leeds away then Brighton and Leicester at home should be enough of an opportunity.

Warding off any jitters ahead after only their second defeat in ten games (including 8 wins), Eddie Howe said : “There is no time for negativity to creep into my, or the player’s, psychology. I don’t doubt our quality and character. There is no time to lose control emotionally. This can be a memorable season. Four games to go. It is in our hands. Offer us this position at the start of the season and we’d take it. Getting over the line is the challenge.”

They will do it.

Neil McLeman

The final two Champions League places are still for Newcastle and Manchester United to lose - and they won’t. Points in the bank become more important as a long season draws to an end.

In-form Liverpool will draw at Leicester and win their last two games to finish on 69 points - a fine late-season recovery but not quite enough. Tottenham had 71 points when they finished fourth last year (though the magic number was 67 and 66 the previous two years).

Brighton are the wildcard but will probably need to win five out of six games in the final three weeks of a gruelling campaign with three of the fixtures against Arsenal, Newcastle and Manchester City.

Toon also have a tough run-in but have a three-point cushion and four games to get five points - or seven points to be mathematically certain. Elland Road promises to be a febrile atmosphere on Saturday before home games with Brighton and Leicester and a final-day visit to Chelsea. Two wins should do it.

Liverpool’s superior goal difference over Manchester United - thanks to the 7-0 mauling at Anfield - means the Old Trafford club would have to get to 70.

Erik ten Hag’s team are running on empty but now have a week off and have three of their last four fixtures against teams in the bottom half who have secured safety - Wolves, Bournemouth and Fulham - plus Chelsea. Three wins and they are back in Europe’s top club competition.

Roberto De Zerbi's brilliant Brighton side remain in the mix (AFP via Getty Images)

Alex Richards

The thing that has underpinned Liverpool's success and ability to challenge Manchester City in recent seasons has been their ability to rattle off win after win after win when they've had a goal within their sights.

Now this year's Kop class may not be vintage, but there's been signs in recent weeks that the old habit still remains and that they've now locked onto the top four, and will take maximum points between now and the end of the season.

That'll take them to 71. Newcastle would need seven points from four games to beat that total and Man Utd nine points from four games to stay above the Merseysiders - who boast a far superior goal difference than their bitter rivals.

Will Newcastle get seven from Leeds (A), Brighton (H), Leicester (H), Chelsea (A)? Probably, but it's far from a given.

Will Man Utd get nine from Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Chelsea (H), Fulham (H)? It's possible, but certainly not easy - especially if they play as they did at West Ham.

So Liverpool will firmly still see themselves firmly in the mix. Not long ago, United were the third team in a two-horse title race. Now, if Erik ten Hag's side don't claim all three points against Wolves this weekend, then there's every chance of them being the third team in what had seemed a two-horse race again.

Erik ten Hag's side need three wins to guarantee a spot in the top four (Manchester United via Getty Imag)

Tom Victor

While Newcastle and Man Utd both dropped points on Sunday, the fixture list will provide some solace for both. At this stage in the season, most would prefer to be the ones being chased than the ones doing the chasing, even if Liverpool have successfully pulled off this kind of late rally before.

Looking at Jurgen Klopp’s side in recent weeks, we need to work on the assumption they will pick up maximum points to end the season on 71. That would leave Newcastle needing seven points to make sure and United potentially needing nine from their four games - Brighton can’t be ruled out entirely, but meetings with all of the current top three will make it tough for the Seagulls.

The good news for Newcastle is that Sunday’s game was the hardest one they had left. The pressure will largely be mental, given how long it has been since they were in this position, but they have responded to setbacks well this season.

United’s issue could be one of burnout, and it’s a familiar story after late-season slumps under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Ralf Rangnick of late. With an easy-looking run-in, though, they should creep over the line.

I’m sticking with Newcastle and Man Utd, but it will go down to the final day.

Jacob Leeks

A race which at one point looked to be done and dusted is wide open again, but I still think Manchester United and Newcastle will claim the final two top four spots on offer. Both teams have endured a downturn in form, but Liverpool have left it too late to overtake them.

Erik ten Hag's side have suffered two successive losses, but with Liverpool breathing down their necks, the Dutchman should be able to find a way to give his men the kick up the backside they need to rediscover their form.

Newcastle meanwhile have a relatively easy run-in, with the defeat to Arsenal only their third loss since the start of March, with two of those coming against the title challengers. Though Liverpool are on an impressive run, Jurgen Klopp has left it too late to get his side's act together.

They have a simple run-in, unlike the final contender Brighton, who have a difficult final six games ahead of them. All in all, I think Brighton will finish ahead of Liverpool, but the top four will stay as is.

Newcastle are three points clear of Liverpool with a game in hand (Getty Images)

Darren Wells

It's a tough one to call, but if there is to be a twist in the tale, it could be Newcastle who end up disappointed come the final day.

Liverpool are ending their season with a bang, and while they arguably don't deserve a top-four finish, you'd expect them to collect maximum points from their remaining games to keep the pressure on.

Man Utd are running out of steam but they should have just enough in the tank to get over the line with three home games to come in a favourable run.

Meanwhile, Brighton could well be the dark horses with plenty of games in hand, but points on the board are what counts and they've got some tough opponents to overcome if they're to land Champions League football.

In fairness, Newcastle had been flying too prior to Sunday's narrow defeat to Arsenal, but that result leaves them with a bit more work to do and a tough run of fixtures to come - the clash with Brighton will be crucial to both team's chances.

Saturday's early kick-off away at Leeds also has all the hallmarks of a potential banana skin. Could Big Sam come back to bite them?

The form table doesn’t lie: Liverpool are right behind Manchester City and are finally hitting their stride after a largely miserable season.

Felix Keith

Jurgen Klopp’s side have won six in a row and you wouldn’t bet against them winning their final three, either. They face two relegation-threatened sides in Leicester and Southampton, as well as Aston Villa at Anfield.

Manchester United do have a game in hand – and their run-in also looks favourable, with Wolves, Bournemouth, Chelsea and Fulham to come – but their last two defeats have shown considerable weaknesses that can be exploited by the chasing pack and they have one eye on the FA Cup final.

Brighton do have three games in hand on Liverpool and Spurs, but I can’t see them closing the gap and sneaking a Champions League place, with away games against Arsenal and Newcastle and a home match against Man City to come.

It looks to me like Liverpool are the only real contenders. They have the momentum and I have a feeling they will pip United to fourth place and invert the narrative of the entire season in the process.

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