Public health chiefs have delivered a "well done" to Ireland's public after a drop-off in case numbers over recent weeks – but warned that driving infections down further will be very difficult.
Experts from the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) tonight said that Ireland has performed better than they feared in the last number of weeks, after a further 2,608 infections were reported.
But Dr Tony Holohan warned that there's still a long road ahead of the country as we battle to bring case numbers down from the soaring highs seen since the start of 2021.
At a lengthy briefing – featuring Professor Philip Nolan, Professor Ronan Glynn and more – the Chief Medical Officer trod the line between hope and harsh truths, with a message that was more optimistic than we've heard so far this month.
But case numbers are still far too high for Ireland to even think about lowering its guard, he said.
Here are the top five takeaways from tonight's briefing.
Holohan stands over dark death warning
Dr Holohan warned the Government last week that Ireland could see as many as 1,000 deaths from Covid-19 in the month of January.
The letter was published today, a week after it was written, but the Chief Medical Officer said his assessment of the situation has not changed despite falling case numbers.
"I have no reason to change that view," he said of the dark prediction.
Close contacts have fallen significantly, says Philip Nolan
The head of NPHET’s Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group said tonight that the average number of close contacts among the public has fallen from nearly 5 to 2.1.
"Collectively, we've pushed down our number of close contacts really to the lowest level," said Professor Nolan, adding that the public deserve a "well done" for the efforts they've made amid the latest lockdown.
Professor Nolan says the country deserves credit for pushing numbers down – "lower, frankly, than I would have anticipated us achieving."
But new strain will make pushing virus further down 'difficult'
While things have certainly improved, the fall in infection rates will be "difficult to sustain," Professor Nolan said.
There are two reasons for this, he told reporters: keeping contacts low in the long term is difficult to sustain, and the presence of the new UK variant will complicate the fight against the virus.
The new, more infectious variant of the virus – known as B117 – will become the dominant strain in the coming months, and will make it much harder to get numbers down as low as we want them.
Tony Holohan doesn't offer much hope over lockdown
Ireland is "nowhere close" to a situation where lockdown measures can safely be eased, the Chief Medical Officer warned tonight.
Dr Tony Holohan pointed to Ireland's five-day moving average this week – compared with the last time the country lifted lockdown in December 2020 – to argue that we cannot afford to drop our guard when it comes to the virus.
As of today, Ireland's five-day moving average is 2,430 cases a day – a figure almost 10 times higher than the five-day moving average of 261 on December 1.
Dr Holohan said he has "no reason to disagree" with the Taoiseach – who warned today that lockdown could stretch well into February.
Incidence rates are falling – but they're still sky-high compared to last summer
If there was any statistic that summed up the message of tonight's NPHET briefing, it was the incidence rate of the virus.
It has fallen, Professor Nolan said, significantly in the last week or two – and is now 10 or 15 times lower than it was at the end of December.
But we still have rates that are a staggering 200 times higher than they were last July.
So there's some hope, but there's also cause for grave concern.
