Although the women’s NCAA tournament can be chalky due to the powerhouses that make up the bracket’s top seeds, there are plenty of upset candidates within the bottom half of each region.
A number of conference champions from the mid-major ranks have put together impressive seasons with few losses heading into the Big Dance. Princeton is one of the strongest teams of the bunch, finishing 26–3 with impressive wins over multiple tournament teams over its non-conference schedule. The Tigers were a mainstay in the Top 25 rankings and secured their bid with a win over Harvard to cut down the nets at Ivy Madness.
However, Princeton enters the 68-team field as a No. 9 seed with a daunting matchup against UCLA waiting in the second round. That would only come to fruition if the Tigers can advance out of the round of 64, of course. The school has made the tournament five years in a row and won first-round games in 2022 and ’23, hoping to go even further this time around.
Even further down the bracket, a number of mid-major standouts jump out as potential Cinderella candidates and nightmare matchups for host schools. It will be difficult to get past the powers that be of UConn, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina, but anything can happen in March.
Here’s a look at the top five Cinderella candidates out of the lower seeds, ranked from bottom to top. We’ll allow Princeton and fellow No. 9 seeds to be a part of this exercise as those teams have the tall task of toppling a top-seed before it can get to the Sweet 16.
5. USC (No. 9 Seed, Regional 4)
USC has had an up-and-down year without JuJu Watkins. The Trojans have a rough draw in the NCAA tournament with a first-round game against Clemson, then top-seeded South Carolina ahead should they move on. Star freshman Jazzy Davidson has been a huge bright spot, leading USC in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals per game. The top recruit and former McDonald’s All-American is a big-time player and could announce herself on the national stage if she can help USC pull off a big upset.
4. Western Illinois (No. 13 seed, Regional 1)
The Leathernecks were the first team to punch their ticket to the Big Dance when the school took home the Ohio Valley conference title. Senior forward Mia Nicastro leads the way for Western Illinois as one of the best scorers in the nation. Her 24.2 points per game are behind only Mikayla Blakes, Audi Crooks and Hannah Hidalgo for the most across college basketball. A high-powered scorer at that level is tough for any team to defend, which makes the Leathernecks an intriguing Cinderella candidate with a first-round game against North Carolina.
3. Princeton (No. 9 seed, Regional 2)
Princeton isn’t new to the NCAA tournament, making its fifth straight appearance. Carla Berube’s team advanced to the second round in 2022 and ’23, both times as a double-digit seed. And this year’s bunch may be her best Tigers squad yet. Princeton finished the season 26–3 and won Ivy Madness for the league’s automatic bid. The Tigers had a strong non-conference schedule with a nice win over Villanova and numerous other Power 4 schools. As a nine-seed, Princeton would need to take down UCLA in the second round should it beat Oklahoma State in the round of 64. This Tigers team can’t be overlooked, however, even with a potential showdown against the Big Ten powerhouse ahead.
2. Rhode Island (No. 11 seed, Regional 3)
Coach Tammi Reiss has the Rams in the tournament for the first time in 30 years. Rhode Island went 28–4 this season and won the Atlantic 10 tournament after it went 16–2 in conference play. The program will make its long awaited return to the NCAA tournament as an 11-seed with a first-round game against Alabama. It’ll be a tough game against an opponent that went through a grueling SEC schedule, but Rhode Island’s defense could bring the Crimson Tide some problems. Reiss’s bunch allowed just 53.8 points per game over the season, a mark that’s good for sixth in the nation. Should Rhode Island pull off the upset, the Rams would need to beat Louisville on the Cardinals’ home floor for a trip to the Sweet 16.
1. Fairfield (No. 11 seed, Regional 1)
The Stags are back in the NCAA tournament for the fourth time in five seasons. Carly Thibault-Dudonis’s program has dominated the MAAC over recent years as the school looks for its first NCAA tournament win. Fairfield went 28–4 this year with a tough non-conference slate. A strong win over Villanova began the season, with two losses to tough North Carolina and Iowa teams over the rest of the non-con schedule. The duo of Kaety L’Amoreaux and Meghan Anderson leads Fairfield’s scoring charge while the Stags employ one of the top defenses across college basketball, allowing 55.8 points per game. They will have to get past Hannah Hidalgo and Notre Dame in the first round before a potential matchup with Ohio State to get to the Sweet 16. The Stags are bound to get that elusive first NCAA tournament win and this could be the year.
More March Madness from Sports Illustrated
- March Madness Brackets: Expert Predictions for First-Round Upsets in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Tournament
- March Madness Rankings: Every Men’s NCAA Tournament Team From 1 to 68
- Texas vs. NC State Prediction, Odds, Key Player to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Four
- March Madness: Five Teams to Avoid in Your Men’s NCAA Tournament Bracket
- How Many Teams Did Each Conference Land in 2026 March Madness Field?
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Top Five Cinderella Candidates for the Women’s NCAA Tournament.
