Few would have ventured back in May, as a sea of red exploded in relief and joy around one half of Hampden after Jimmy Thelin had guided Aberdeen to their first Scottish Cup in 35 years, that 180-odd minutes of competitive football later his job security would be a live issue. But this is Scottish football, and here we are.
If the game here can be something of a rollercoaster ride for fans at the best of times, then Aberdeen under the Swede has been Space Mountain. On steroids.
I'm rather reminded, for instance, as many now ponder the viability of Hearts as a genuine title contender, of the slew of articles that were produced this time last year asking the very same question of Aberdeen after their long winning run under their new gaffer.
I took a bit of heat from some Dandies for being a bit of a contrarian at the time, pointing out that their 13-game winning streak was rather falsely inflated by six games against lower league opposition and a favourable opening fixture list, but despite the many allegations of being just another west coast windbag, it gave me no great pleasure to see my prediction that their challenge would fade away come to pass. And then some.
As Aberdeen plummeted, Hibs roared past them in the opposite direction, with some defenders of Thelin theorising that had their seasons been flipped, with Aberdeen enduring a poor start before coming good as the campaign wore on, then his first stab at the Premiership would be remembered far more fondly than it was.
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As it turned out, a fifth-place finish was probably around par when set against pre-season expectations, and come that glorious afternoon in May as Dimitar Mitov batted away Alistair Johnston’s penalty in the shootout, ending over three decades of Scottish Cup misery, none of that seemed to matter a jot.
Except, it does.
You ask any fan outside of the Old Firm, and they will tell you that they would swap a third placed finish in the league for a trophy win every day of the week. No question. But a cup win doesn’t act as insulation against the sack if the league form tails off, as the likes of double-winning Callum Davidson, Allan Stubbs, John Collins and Kenny Shiels would no doubt testify. Particularly at a club of the size and stature of Aberdeen.
Ironically, achieving consistently impressive finishes in the league while failing to deliver enough silverware was one of the main sticks that Derek McInnes’s Pittodrie critics wielded against him. Now, for Thelin, it is the league form despite the delivery of the Scottish Cup that is putting his own position under the microscope, and potentially, some argue, even putting his jacket on a shoogly peg.
Does such a view have merit? From the outside, it would be easy to dismiss such arguments as, frankly, quite ludicrous given the scenes Thelin’s team produced at Hampden just a few months ago.
But when you zoom out and view the big picture, then there are some worrying trends.
When Thelin’s side suffered a 6-0 League Cup semi-final pasting against Celtic at the start of November, they looked to have brushed it off when they immediately beat Dundee 4-1 in their next game, but they then failed to win in their next 14 Premiership matches before beating the Dee again in mid-February.
All told, those triumphs over Dundee were among two of just five league wins from the rest of the campaign, and with the losses to Hearts and Celtic at the start of this season, it brings the league run to five wins from 30.
Not good enough for an Aberdeen manager by a long stretch.
There have been a few grumbles about the summer recruitment, chiefly surrounding new striker Kusini Yengi. Being kind to the big chap, he still seems to be finding his feet at Pittodrie. Or, as it has appeared in his first two outings, still trying to find the correct ones for each boot.
In Thelin’s defence though, it’s hardly an unusual state of affairs for Aberdeen to lose at Tynecastle or at home to Celtic.
They looked undercooked against a Hearts side who had the benefit of playing competitive League Cup fixtures, and in recent years, the away side never win in this fixture in any case. Aberdeen last won in Gorgie in May 2017, while Hearts haven’t won at Pittodrie since the year before that.
Champions Celtic, meanwhile, are unbeaten now in their last 28 league games against the Dons.
So, for all that the fixture list may have been kind to Thelin and Aberdeen as he eased himself into the Scottish game last summer, it was quite the opposite this time around.
Their next five domestic games see the Dons visit Morton on League Cup duty this Saturday, before Premiership fixtures at home to Falkirk and Livingston, a visit to Motherwell and then another home game against Dundee.
If things don’t look a little bit rosier after that sequence (albeit with European ties to contend with too), then alarm bells really will be ringing, and the knives that are currently being sharpened for Thelin will no doubt be replaced by pitchforks and flaming torches.
But he is not there yet. Dave Cormack and the Aberdeen board remain solidly behind Thelin. They sold his appointment as a three-year project, come what may, after the bin fire of Neil Warnock et al that had gone before. There has been an unexpected cup success along the way, and a solid enough league finish, so they won’t be tearing up the masterplan just yet.
These facts don’t fully allay concerns over his team’s current trajectory, and I have seen it said that the cup win has papered over many cracks, but facts they remain.
There is no doubt though that the lingering goodwill from Hampden in May has now already been all but spent. Thelin needs his team to turn things around, and soon, and display more consistency in the league. It is, after all, their bread and buttery (sorry).
This may well be a three-year plan. But the next three weeks are pivotal for Thelin, both in terms of results and recruitment, if he is to see that out.
