Health experts are nervous about rising Covid hospitalisations, particularly in New South Wales, as political leaders continue to call for calm over skyrocketing case numbers.
Across Australia, attention is turning from the Covid case numbers to how many people end up in hospital and the ICU. Given Australia’s high vaccination rates, the prime minister, Scott Morrison, said on Monday the focus should be on the impact on the health system rather than the record case numbers.
Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM) president Dr Clare Skinner told the Guardian there is a nervousness among health experts as numbers continue to rise.
“It is too early to tell how Omicron will play out for the hospital system. We’re nervous, and we are treating the situation with caution.”
“We’re concerned about potential overload on already overcrowded emergency departments, and we welcome conversations with health decision makers on how to create the best systems for optimal patient care.”
So what does the data on hospital admissions and ICU patients tell us so far?
New South Wales
Hospitalisations linked to Covid have been gradually rising in NSW, with the total number of people in hospital at 261 on Monday as the state recorded its highest ever daily case numbers at 2,501.
Only 33 people are in intensive care.
By comparison, at the peak of the Delta outbreak, NSW had 1,266 people requiring hospitalisation.
The number of hospitalisations as a percentage of case numbers has dived, reflecting the smaller number of Covid-positive patients requiring hospitalisations.
The NSW premier, Dominic Perrottet, says the figures show the state’s health system can handle the spike in cases, and that the current level of restrictions is sufficient.
“In relation to the ICU presentations, which is the key metric for the state, we have 33 people in ICU. Twenty-six of those 33 are unvaccinated.
“Getting vaccinated protects you and your family, and that has been the key success for our state in opening up.”
But some remain concerned that the number of Covid patients in hospitals will rise significantly due to the spread of Omicron.
Dan Suan, an immunologist at the Garvan Institute of Medical Research, said the new variant was much more infectious than any of the previous strains.
“Sydney is sleepwalking into a catastrophic disaster in January if we don’t do something about it right now,” he said in a Facebook post.
“The only people that are really really protected from the Omicron infection are people who have a normal immune system and have been triple vaccinated.”
Victoria
It’s a similar story in Victoria, where there has also been a recent uptick in Covid patients in hospital.
Victoria’s hospitalisation rates run roughly in parallel to the state’s case numbers, with the state recording 1,302 cases on Monday.
406 people in Victoria are currently in hospital with Covid, with 118 people in intensive care.
Queensland
Queensland has seen a sharp rise in its hospitalisations as daily case numbers increase. The state recorded 59 new cases on Monday, with 43 linked to the Omicron variant. Of 197 active cases in the state, none are in intensive care with Covid.
South Australia
There are now five confirmed Covid cases in hospital in South Australia, after the state went months without any cases requiring hospital admission.
It comes as the state recorded 105 new cases on Monday, the first time it has recorded over 100 new cases in a day.
