KOCHI: Covid cases are on a decline in Kerala and for the first time since the beginning of Covid, the daily new cases, daily deaths and hospitalizations have reduced drastically. So, is this an indicator that now we are entering the endemic phase of the pandemic?
“We are now in the low phase of the infection and cases may further drop. This is expected of any cyclical viral disease. But this is not the end. The cases that are declining now will rise again when the next successful variant appears in any country. We have seen that it can reach all over the world in a matter of days. When that happens, hopefully it will be manageable like any other disease because many people have been vaccinated and naturally infected by now. That is, provided the biological properties of the new variant are not augmented,” said Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, vice-chairman, research cell, IMA Kerala.
Dr Jayadevan said that endemic is a term being used loosely, often without knowing what it means, to trivialize the pandemic. “Technically it applies when certain diseases stay in a specified area, for example we say filariasis is endemic in some parts of Kerala. But that is not the case with Covid-19, which is a new cyclical disease that comes in waves of a global scale, each time affecting a larger number of people. Using the term ‘endemic’ can be misleading as it can in fact be counterproductive: for example if people believe that the pandemic has ended, then our ability to fight it using multiple public health measures will be lowered,” he added.
Dr Padmanabha Shenoy, who has been analyzing the Covid trends in India, said that rather than saying endemic, it would be better to say that we are in the last leg of this wave of the pandemic.
“Covid cases are fast declining. However, at this moment it is difficult to gauge the actual Covid-positive cases as testing has also reduced. But what is really reassuring is that our ICU/ventilator admissions and deaths are now very low and so testing is also not really important unless one is very sick,” said Dr Shenoy.
With cases waning, Kerala relaxed several curbs that were in force in public places. Health experts believe that the third Omicron wave has infected the majority in Kerala and it has caused natural immunity to be built in most individuals who were infected. This had not happened in the first two waves. Also, with the rising number of vaccinations the protective immunity against Covid-19 is reaching its peak.
Official records show that the highest number of cases were reported during the peak between January 25 and 31, when on an average 50,000-plus cases were reported daily with an average TPR above 45%. Since then the cases have been dropping fast, even as on an average more than 1 lakh tests are conducted per day in a week. Between January 30 and February 5, on an average 44,672 new cases were detected daily and the average TPR was 39.80%. Cases and TPR dropped to 21,656 average new cases and TPR at 25% by mid-Feb and it further dropped to average new cases 4,030 by month-end.
“Though it appears we are now entering the endemic phase, with Covid everything is uncertain. We need to wait for another six months to one year to see if there is any new Covid varian. Till then, precaution remains the key,” said Kerala Government Medical Officers’ Association president Dr GS Vijayakrishnan.
