Election night ended with at least 16 seats too close to call. Here you can see a list of those which were, as of Wednesday morning, still undecided and our reasons for holding off from making predictions about who will win them.
We’re going to leave the electorates on this list even after predictions have been made so if something happens you won’t miss it.
ACT and NSW
In Bean, the Australian Electoral Commission picked the incorrect pairing for the final two-candidate-preferred count (TPC), so we’re waiting on a recount with the actual final pairing of Labor v the independent Jessie Price.
In Richmond, it’s likely that the Labor candidate, Justine Elliot, will be successful against the Greens, and retain the seat. But, again, the initial pairing the AEC chose was not the one that eventuated on the night, so we’re waiting on the TCP recount before making a call to avoid any doubt.
The count in Bradfield between the independent Nicolette Boele and the Liberal Gisele Kapterian is extremely close and will likely require a full count of the absent, provisional, declaration and postal votes before a decision can be made.
Queensland
In Longman, the Liberal National party candidate had a narrow lead on Wednesday morning despite a swing against him of 2.9%. Postal votes are now favouring the LNP but most absent and declaration votes have yet to be counted and may swing the seat to Labor.
In Ryan, we have a three-cornered contest and it looks as though the Greens have beaten Labor for second place on the primary vote. If this position holds, the Greens should win the seat against the LNP off Labor preferences. But it’s possible that absent, postal and other pre-poll votes could make a difference in the final order, so we’ll wait for counting to continue.
Victoria
Victoria has a whopping seven seats that are tricky to call for various reasons.
In Calwell, the Labor party leads on the primary vote but we’re waiting on more information before the final pairing is clear and a TCP recount can be carried out.
In Menzies, we have a close race between Keith Wolahan, the Liberal incumbent, and Gabriel Ng, the Labor challenger. Labor has a clear lead at the time of writing but there’s a decent amount of postal and other non-booth votes still to be counted.
The seat of Melbourne is an interesting one which I wrote about in detail on Tuesday in our live blog. The leader of the Greens, Adam Bandt, has suffered a substantial swing against him. Between the swing against Bandt and an increased vote for Labor, Bandt may lose the seat, or may hold on with a narrow margin.
In Kooyong, the independent Monique Ryan’s strong lead on election night has dwindled to the point where the seat count is extremely close. Various election analysts expect her to eventually retain the seat, but we’ll want to see the count on most of the pre-poll and other votes before making a call.
Flinders is another seat where the initial pairing for the TCP count was incorrect, so now we’re waiting on the results of the recount with the Liberal party’s Zoe McKenzie against the independent Ben Smith.
In Monash, we’re also waiting on a new TCP count to see which way the preferences fall for the Liberals’ Mary Aldred and Labor’s Tully Fletcher.
In Bendigo, what was thought to be a contest between Labor and the Liberals has now turned into Labor v Nationals, so we’re waiting on the new TCP count. Labor had an extremely narrow lead as of Wednesday morning with 11 of 66 polling places counted for the new TCP figures.
Western Australia
Things are looking rocky in Bullwinkel (sorry), with Labor leading by just 50 votes on Wednesday morning. The postal votes have mostly been counted, so this will come down to absent, provision and declaration votes, which may give Labor the edge.
Fremantle is another site of a new TCP count, and as of Wednesday morning, things were looking good for the Labor incumbent, Josh Wilson, who leads over the independent Kate Hulett. The ABC’s projection on the new preferences suggests a narrow Labor win.
