There is only one place to start the attempt to find the winner of this year’s Grand National, and it is also the place where many punters will stop. Shutthefrontdoor, seemingly sure to be Tony McCoy’s final ride in the race, will set off as the favourite on Saturday, and possibly the shortest market leader since Red Rum in 1975.
There will scarcely be a once-a-year backer anywhere who does not have a little something on McCoy, just in case. If Shutthefrontdoor wins, which would not be the biggest of shocks on the book, the country will toast the retiring champion jockey with the winnings and no one will go away feeling short‑changed.
When it comes to recommending a bet in the race, however, it is impossible to point anyone towards Shutthefrontdoor because, even now, at 7-1, there is such a gulf between his price and his actual chance.
McCoy’s ride is lightly raced with scope for improvement over fences. He took the Irish equivalent last season and has been closeted away at Jonjo O’Neill’s yard for many months with the National in mind. Yet there are at least half a dozen opponents in the Aintree field with a broadly similar profile, and three or four whose recent form should put them either alongside or ahead of the eight-year-old in the market.
Four co-favourites at around 12-1 would be a better reflection of the chances that will be in play, though the anticipated short price against Shutthefrontdoor is good news for anyone looking to back one of the other 39 runners.
The National always has a generous profit margin for the bookmakers built-in to the prices, but the favourite will take out so much of the market that very plausible winners will be on offer at double-figure odds.
The two to focus on for win purposes may be Rocky Creek and The Druids Nephew, with narrow preference for the former. Paul Nicholls’s nine-year-old faded into fifth behind Pineau De Re last year having led on the home turn, but looks like a much stronger horse this season after a wind operation last summer.
He stayed on well to win at Kempton last time out, missed Cheltenham’s Festival meeting to ensure that he arrives at Aintree fresh, and will have a very workable 11st 3lb on his back assuming that, as expected, the top weight, Lord Windermere, lines up for the race.
The Druids Nephew did run at Cheltenham, and successfully, winning the stayers’ handicap chase under Barry Geraghty on the opening day to give trainer Neil Mulholland his first winner at the Festival. He settled into a good rhythm after an early mistake at Cheltenham and eventually won in the style of a horse that might improve for a further step up in trip. Off the same mark and with luck in running he should go very close.
Further down the betting, Unioniste, a stablemate of Rocky Creek, could be staying on best of all in the closing stages, as he did behind the subsequent Gold Cup winner Coneygree at Newbury last time out.
Dolatulo has dropped off the radar for this race having run twice over hurdles since his win in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby over Christmas, but he has experience over these fences and is a big price at 40-1 if he can resume his progressive form of earlier in the season.
