History says the 2020 Padres will finish with a losing record, the club's 10th in a row.
But history also provides hope.
Improved Padres bullpens have taken the franchise out of other ruts, notably in 1996, 2005 and 2010.
Those bullpens ended up first, second and first in league ERA, and fueled two West champions plus a 90-game winner.
While bullpens are famously volatile, the Padres' crew now limbering up in Arizona seems deep and talented enough to cope with injury and downturns.
So, a sunny forecast: With a little bit of luck, the 2020 bullpen should lead the franchise to more than 77 victories, the highest total yet in the seven-season tenure of the Peter Seidler-Ron Fowler ownership group.
It seems A.J. Preller has heeded the work of previous Padres general managers such as Randy Smith and Kevin Towers by giving extra attention to the bullpen.
In fairness, Preller assembled a robust bullpen a few years ago, the 2018 crew that finished first in innings pitched and fourth in ERA, despite a late-July trade that sent All-Star closer Brad Hand and useful reliever Adam Cimber to the Indians.
Preller's other four bullpens?
Not good. Each one landed in the league's bottom-5 in adjusted ERA. The 2019 bullpen was 10th of 15 in ERA and ninth in win-probability added.
Let's look at three franchise-lifting bullpens, starting in 1996.
