As Padres centerpiece acquisition Mike Clevinger begins the long recovery from reconstructive elbow surgery that will sideline him until 2022, is it time to second-guess A.J. Preller's decision to send the Cleveland Indians six players for Clevinger and two other players at the summer trade deadline?
Nope. For sound reasons, Preller took a big swing.
Then he got a bit unlucky.
For many pitchers it's only a matter of time before their ulnar collateral ligament gives out. Clevinger's stamina wasn't built up when he joined the Padres, but it seemed the 29-year-old righty was healthy.
He threw lively pitches in his Padres debut Sept. 3, overcoming spotty control to log six innings across 87 pitches. It was a good showing for a pitcher making just his second start in nearly a month.
Two starts later came an affirming performance: seven scoreless innings against the Giants in which Clevinger commanded three good pitches.
"I saw a bunch of games from Clevinger like that one against the Giants, when he pitched for Cleveland," a veteran scout said.
So, if all too briefly while wearing Padres brown, Clevinger mustered the electric form that contributed to his 2.96 ERA and 38-18 record with Cleveland in 80 games between 2017-19.
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It was realistic to expect Clevinger would've pitched well in the World Series tournament if not for the elbow injury that postponed his start after he allowed the Giants only two hits Sept. 13.
Seemingly, upon joining the Padres, he had worked past a knee injury that required cartilage-repair surgery in mid-February and limited him this past summer with Cleveland.
The Dodgers were better than the Padres and every other team this year, but it was also realistic to expect that if a healthy, built-up Clevinger had faced them in Game 1 of the Divisional Series, which he exited with an elbow ailment two pitches into the second inning, then it would've been a close game going into the late innings.
The recent World Series tournament, though, was like the dessert before the main course.
The Padres went large for Clevinger mostly in the belief he would give them 25-30 starts and 150-plus innings of front-line pitching in 2021 and 2022, the years they knew he would be under their control.
Just because his 2021 season has been erased doesn't merit a second guess, either from me or a second non-Padres scout who revisited the trade after learning Clevinger will have Tommy John surgery. "I will never question the trade," he said. "San Diego had a shot at the brass ring. You could not foresee the injury."
This is also true: In July, one contending team decided against trying to trade for Clevinger because it wasn't comfortable with his paltry output this season after having the knee surgery. The righty had thrown only 222/3 innings, a four-start total that also reflected his unavailability after breaking COVID-19 protocol, a mistake he apologized for.
Going forward, the first challenge for Preller and the Padres is the same: Can a pitcher or two among the franchise's much-praised but still unproven collection of young starters evolve into a reliable, sturdy starter? Even if Preller can find a veteran starter to help out, the Padres will need a good season, at some point, from candidates such as Chris Paddack, Luis Patino, MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon and Cole Wilcox in order to challenge the Dodgers for NL West supremacy or grab a secondary playoff berth over a full season.
Dinelson Lamet, a starter Preller inherited as a prospect, gives the 2021 team a true ace, though durability remains a question mark.
