The Buccaneers defense has been a top-five unit for two years running now, but you wouldn’t know it watching their matchups with the Saints. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles just can’t seem to figure out Sean Payton’s offense. The Bucs are 0-4 against New Orleans since Bowles took over the defense and they’re giving up an average of 34.3 points per game.
That will have to change if Tampa Bay is going to get through the Divisional Round game against New Orleans on Sunday night.
In the last game, a Week 9 win for the Saints, Tampa Bay ceded 38 points. Bowles was criticized for his plan in that game — we saw a lot of spot drop zone behind three-man lines as opposed to some of his more creative looks — but I’m not sure he really had another sensible option.
This is just what Sean Payton does to teams. He’s going to play with personnel and formations to create the mismatches he wants. It’s a pick-your-poison situation, and Bowles’ poison of choice was “force a 40-year-old Drew Brees to pick us apart.”
In both matchups, the Saints stayed in heavier personnel groupings — with 2 tight ends or backs on the field — and the Bucs matched with base defense, which is what teams tend to do. Well, when you’re in base, it’s harder to play those man/match coverages because then you’re asking linebackers and edge rushers to match tight ends in the seam, where Brees makes a living.
If you’re playing man and asking Devin White and Lavonte David to matchup with tight ends and receivers in man coverage, it’s not going to end well.
They’re both good players, but there aren’t a lot of linebackers comfortable in man coverage. The Saints relentlessly attacked those two in the Week 9 game. Brees targeted them 18 times and completed 16 passes for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The other option is to say “screw it” and match the Saints’ heavier personnel groupings with your sub-packages, but then it’s Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill time.
The key for Bowles on Sunday will be finding a good middle ground. Can he figure out a way to stay sound against the run while keeping smaller, faster bodies out there to defend the pass? If not, we’re going to see a repeat of the last four matchups and it will be on Tom Brady and the Bucs offense to win a shootout.
