A key shippers group has slashed its export growth forecast to 1% this year from 3% seen in April as global demand weakens amid the deepening trade row between the US and China.
Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC), said the country's export prospects face a number of risk factors, including the global economic slowdown and the ongoing trade spat between China and the US that has disrupted supply chains.
She cited the Commerce Ministry's latest report, which said exports fell by 1.9% to $80.5 billion in the first four months this year. Imports shrank 1.1% in the same period to $80 billion, yielding a trade surplus of $550 million for the period.
In April, the TNSC cut its export growth estimate for this year to 3% from 5%, while the state planning agency, the National Economic and Social Development Council, last month lowered its forecast to 2.2% from 4.1% projected in February.
The Commerce Ministry last Friday trimmed its export growth target to 3% this year from 8% earlier, blaming the global economic slowdown, the deepening trade row between the US and China and political uncertainties in Europe.
Exports are likely to fetch $260 billion this year, down from $270 billion projected earlier.
Apart from weak global demand, the ongoing trade war has taken a heavy toll on shipments, particularly of electronics, automobiles, garments, rubber and plastics, which are linked to the US-China supply chains.
Ms Ghanyapad said the trade squabbles will lead to a relocation of parts makers that export to the US and China, as well as higher competition from export goods' influx to the third countries.
Existing domestic regulations may be obstacles for Thai exports hoping to replace export products to both the Chinese and US markets, she said. The private sector urged the government to ramp up shipments to new substitute markets.
Ms Ghanyapad said the TNSC is working on an international trade promotion strategy to be proposed to the new government to tackle trade challenges.
The strategy will include an expansion into new markets and an acceleration to rev up trade negotiations with key trading partners; beefing up trade missions and expos in strategic markets; optimisation of Asean's chairmanship and the utilisation of e-commerce platforms; B2B cross-border e-trading platform development and upgrading of human resources; and tax perks to encourage the private sector to increase investment in human resource development.
