Good morning. The murmurs began in May, after the Conservative party’s extraordinary wipeout in the local elections: the 200-year-old Tory party, the most electorally successful party in British history, is dying.
Nigel Farage, having broken the grip Britain’s two main political parties held over the country, claimed Reform’s gains were the “beginning of the end” for the Tories. Justine Greening, a former Conservative Cabinet minister, went further, writing in the Guardian that the party was as dead as Monty Python’s famous parrot. “It has ceased to be,” she said, decrying what she described as its strategy of trying to out-Reform Reform.
This week, Farage ramped up his anti-Tory messaging and, according to the Financial Times, has been telling donors he expects Reform to do a deal or a merger with the Tories before the next general election. One donor told the FT Farage described an agreement as “inevitable”, despite staunch denials from both sides.
On Monday, the Reform leader launched what the Telegraph called “his most significant attack” on the Tories to date, urging voters not to trust Kemi Badenoch – nor to forget that her party oversaw tax rises, spiralling welfare spending and net zero carbon emission rules.
To untangle some of these attacks, why they might be resurfacing and whether they are accurate, I spoke to Guardian senior political correspondent Peter Walker and Giles Dilnot, the editor of ConservativeHome.
Five big stories
UK politics | The safety of patients at Blackpool Victoria hospital was affected because of a culture of systemic bullying and harassment among staff at what is one England’s most scandal-hit hospitals, a damning leaked report reveals.
Ukraine | King Charles spoke directly of “Russian aggression” as he hosted Germany’s president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. After US talks with Vladimir Putin went nowhere, American and Ukrainian negotiators are due to meet in Florida on Thursday.
UK news | Parents are considering legal action against a London nursery after a man who passed vetting to get a job there pleaded guilty on Wednesday to 26 offences of sexually assaulting toddlers in his care.
Military | A report by the Kenyan parliament into the conduct of troops stationed at a British military base near Nanyuki town alleges human rights violations, environmental destruction and sexual abuse by British soldiers.
Women’s Institute | The WI will no longer accept transgender women as members from April after the UK supreme court ruling in April.
In depth: ‘They are saying the party is dead because they need that to be true’
Few would argue, even within the party themselves, that the Conservatives are in a good place. Though some remain “bullish”, Peter Walker says some MPs have confessed the Tories are “in a death spiral”.
In a piece for ConservativeHome yesterday, Giles Dilnot argued that after assuming the Conservatives “would not and could not” fight back last year, Labour and Reform made separate “devil’s pacts” that they didn’t discuss but acted upon.
“Labour would treat Reform as their only threat, and the ‘real opposition’ and Reform would ignore the Tories and tack left to support more public spending,” he wrote, “because ‘having beaten the Tories into oblivion’ their real target was Labour votes especially in the red wall’.”
It was predicated on a few key arguments that were untrue, he said, including that the Tories hadn’t changed since 2024 – that they are the same as Labour, or trying to be the same as Reform. It worked for a while, he said, while anger at the last Tory government was raw, few policies were forthcoming and Badenoch was doing badly in her initial PMQs. But, he thinks, the Conservative party has changed.
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Are the Tories facing extinction?
Currently, the Tories are hovering around 18% in some public opinion polls – “as bad as it’s ever been”, Peter says, and just a couple of percentage points away from being in fifth place.
To that extent, they are in “big, big trouble”, he says. “You currently have polling when you have like, almost five parties have about 15 to 20% or something like that. We’ve never seen such atomisation before.”
Dilnot agrees: “The Tories are not in a good position. But they are so definitely not dead. Labour and Reform trying to behave as if it was really just between those two has turned out to be strategically unsound.”
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Could it be counter-productive to claim the Tories are on the way out?
Dilnot questions the reason behind the latest attacks on the party.
“The Tories have got a mountain to climb, but the idea that they’re dead and therefore irrelevant poses the question: why would you bother if you really believed they were dead and out of the camp?”
The more “pantomime” tactics employed by Farage and former party chair Zia Yusuf in declaring them dead, the further from the truth it gets, Dilnot thinks. “They are saying the party is dead because they need that to be true, and they need people to believe it to be true. It doesn’t make any sense, and it is, in fact, a tacit admission that that isn’t the case.”
Instead, says Dilnot, “all it does is fire up people who are Tories and remain Tories to go: ‘All right, we’ll show you whether we’re dead or not.’”
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What about Badenoch’s changing reputation?
Going into the Tory party conference this October, the popular assumption was that Badenoch could face a challenge, maybe after the local elections in 2026. Now, “Keir Starmer is more likely to go first”, says Peter.
While the polling figures haven’t shifted that much, Peter says Badenoch has a “spring in her step”. Many Conservatives believe time is on their side. Her position has strengthened over time, said Peter, and she is doing better at PMQs than in the first nine months.
“It’s partly the material she’s got to work with because the government are in a bit of trouble, but she’s found her mojo,” Peter says. The expectation of many Tories is that the “longer it goes on, the more people will look at Reform’s policies and have second thoughts”.
“From that point of view, it will be interesting, because with more scrutiny, Reform have to come up with policies showing that they could actually run government,” Peter says.
The party, which continues to have “big structural problems”, including the ageing profile of Tory voters, and a lack of activists and councillors, will be keen to hang on to Badenoch because of the chaos and “rats in a sack” reputation for infighting that put voters off the party in the 2024 general election.
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Deal or no deal?
As for an electoral pact with Reform, “you won’t find a single Tory at the moment, who’s asking for this or discussing it”, says Dilnot. “Why would you sit down and do a deal with people who want to destroy you?” He says it’s also important to “not put aside the amount to which Nigel and Kemi do not get on”.
Peter, returning to the “atomisation” debate, says we are in “uncharted” political territory where no one knows what will happen.
“It is possible you could get a combination of Conservatives and Reform with enough MPs for a majority to form a government. Equally, you could have a situation where the only way to form a government would be a Labour, Lib Dem and Green coalition. No one really knows.”
A formal coalition is a lot less attractive, given the experience of the Conservative-Lib Dem government in 2010. Instead, he says, we could end up with a “confidence and supply” arrangement, a political arrangement in which a minority government receives the support of one or more parties. For instance “where a party would say to another, well, we’ll broadly support you, and we’ll vote with you on things, but we won’t be formally part of the government”, Peter said.
On this point, Dilnot refers to a recent survey ConservativeHome carried out with Conservative party members, which found that in the event Farage became prime minister, a large percentage thought a deal of some kind was inevitable. But he stressed: “What it doesn’t tell you is if that’s what they want.”
What else we’ve been reading
I don’t want to give any spoilers for the outcome, but Sam Wollaston has been out searching for wild wallabies in the UK. Martin
Alaina Demopolous looks into a push to have free water provided in clubs in New York City, where a bottle can cost up to $12. Medics tell her it could make the difference between a safe night out and trip to the ER. Karen
For the Quietus, Darran Anderson explores Rupert Hine’s soundtrack to 1978 horror The Shout, thoughtfully touching on the uncanny valley, the foley artist’s craft and why sound may accompany us longest in life. Martin
She brought the house down as a stripper in Gypsy and starred in movies with Al Pacino and Jack Nicholson. Now, at 96, June Squibb is playing the lead in Eleanor the Great, Scarlett Johansson’s directorial debut. Karen
I’m a sucker for big infrastructure projects and striking designs but Oliver Wainwright makes the case here that Norman Foster’s design for JP Morgan’s new HQ is “a bullying affront to the skyline” of New York. Martin
Sport
Football | Arsenal restored their five-point lead in the Premier League with a 2-0 win against Brentford, but Cristhian Mosquera and Declan Rice were forced off. Ao Tanaka, Jaka Bijol and Dominic Calvert-Lewin were on target in Leeds’ 3-1 win again Chelsea. More Premier League action.
Cricket | The second Test has finally begun in Brisbane – follow live.
Rugby union | Hosts Australia to face All Blacks in 2027 Rugby World Cup pool as a favourable draw against Wales, Tonga and Zimbabwe provides few potholes for England.
The front pages
“‘Bullying culture’ harmed patient safety at scandal-hit NHS hospital” says the Guardian. “Review will study rising diagnoses of ADHD” – that’s the Times while the Express decries “Starmer’s ‘mission to crush’ our high streets” which is about business rates. The Telegraph has “Police plan for face ID in every town” while the i claims an exclusive with “Russian spies secretly entering UK on cargo ships”. The Financial Times runs with “Bond investors warned US Treasury of risk in picking Hassett as Fed chair”. “Formula win!” – it’s a “Metro milk campaign victory” on the front of that paper which reports on an initiative to make baby milk more affordable. “Meghan’s father ‘fighting for life’” is the top story in the Mail. The Mirror runs with pictures from “Inside Epstein’s island lair” under the strapline “US paedo probe”.
Today in Focus
Zack Polanski on the Green party boom
Three months into his leadership the Green party membership is surging. Randeep Ramesh explains why
Cartoon of the day | Rebecca Hendin
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
London’s Smithfield meat market and Billingsgate fish market have found a new home – Albert Island, a former industrial site in London Docklands. This news comes after the City of London Corporation voted to permanently close the markets last year due to rising costs. The Greater London Authority has estimated the move would generate 2,200 jobs to Newham and £750m in local expenditure in one of the city’s most deprived boroughs.
In June, the corporation said it had established a regeneration team to help find a new location for the meat and fish markets, amid plans to turn the markets into new homes and a cultural destination. For more than 800 years, Smithfield has been home to a food market. Two buildings on the site are being redeveloped, and the London Museum is scheduled to open the area in late 2026.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
