ANALYSIS – The 2026 election cycle began in November with a historically small universe of competitive Senate races. More than eight months later, not much has changed, and that’s good news for Republicans hoping to maintain their majority.
Since late January, seven senators have announced they’re either retiring or running for another office, and yet the Senate battleground hasn’t fundamentally changed. Even while President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has dipped from 51 percent at the beginning of his term to about 43 percent, according to G. Elliott Morris’ average, the national political environment hasn’t deteriorated enough, nor have local dynamics changed enough in individual races, to diminish Republicans’ advantage in the fight for Senate control.
The cycle started with five races rated as competitive by Inside Elections, which was the smallest initial Senate battleground going back to 1994, when The Rothenberg Political Report (Inside Elections’ predecessor) first started rating races. The number of competitive races has crept up in the past few months (all the way to eight now), but only on the periphery.
Georgia (where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is up for reelection), Michigan (which is now open because of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement) and North Carolina (which is also open because of GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’ recent announcement) were part of the initial five Battleground races. Those races are now rated as Toss-ups as Inside Elections moves from binary ratings to the traditional nine-category rating system.
Another of the initial five was Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins is the only Republican up for reelection next year in a state that backed Kamala Harris over Trump. But she’s earned the benefit of the doubt after multiple resounding victories in her blue-leaning state, so her race is now rated Tilt Republican.
New Hampshire was also on the list of initial battlegrounds and is now rated Lean Democratic. This seat is also open because Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is not running again.
The two newest additions to the Senate battleground are Iowa and Texas. Both remain Republican states under normal circumstances, but this cycle might be extraordinary.
In Iowa, GOP incumbent Joni Ernst has had multiple sets of negative headlines this year (including after her “We all are going to die” comment), and Texas Republicans look poised to oust Sen. John Cornyn in favor of controversial state Attorney General Ken Paxton in their primary. But those races both have a long way to go, including Democrats having to decide on their nominees, so they are only rated Likely Republican, one category away from Solid.
And finally, Minnesota, where Democrats have a modest 6.9-point Baseline advantage, was also added to the battlegrounds when Democratic-Farmer-Labor Sen. Tina Smith announced she wasn’t running again. That open-seat race is now rated Likely Democratic.
As it currently stands, Democrats need to run the table of all competitive races in order to gain control of the Senate. Republicans hold 53 seats in the chamber, meaning Democrats would need to flip a net of four seats to claim the majority. Winning all of the “core four” states of Georgia, Maine, Michigan and North Carolina would only result in a net gain of two seats for the minority party.
So Democrats would need to hold Minnesota, New Hampshire, Georgia and Michigan (the last two being far from guarantees) and also flip Maine, North Carolina, Iowa and Texas (all of which will be difficult) to land right at 51 seats. That scenario is possible, but not currently likely.
Democrats would be well-served to expand their list of takeovers. But they don’t have great options and would need to encroach into more Republican states. Alaska would be more competitive if Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola decides to challenge GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. Democrats have poured time and money into Ohio and Florida in the past but aren’t anxious to do it again in states where they’ve seen little recent success. Where else? South Carolina? Mississippi?
So how likely is the Senate battleground to expand, and might it be too late?
The 2008 Senate battleground began with five vulnerable Republicans and two vulnerable Democrats and ended with 12 vulnerable GOP seats and just one Democratic seat. At this point in that cycle, the battleground had already expanded to 13 seats (two Democratic seats and 11 Republican seats, including Collins’).
While there’s well more than a year before the November 2026 elections and plenty of time for the national political environment to shift, time is ticking for Democrats to get quality candidates in place in a larger number of states to take advantage if that opportunity materializes.
Considering the Republican lean of the states the GOP is defending outside Maine and North Carolina, Democrats will need multiple factors to give them a chance to win the Senate. It will likely be a combination of local factors (say, a flawed GOP nominee and a quality Democratic candidate) along with a national dynamic that boosts Democratic turnout, makes independent voters fed up with the party in power and discourages apathetic or Trump-first Republican voters from turning out.
Here are the eight races rated as competitive (and not Solid) by Inside Elections:
Currently held by Democrats (4)
Georgia (Jon Ossoff): Toss-up
Michigan (Open; Gary Peters not seeking reelection): Toss-up
Minnesota (Open; Tina Smith not seeking reelection): Likely Democratic
New Hampshire (Open; Jeanne Shaheen not seeking reelection): Lean Democratic
Currently held by Republicans (4)
Iowa (Joni Ernst): Likely Republican
Maine (Susan Collins): Tilt Republican
North Carolina (Open; Thom Tillis not seeking reelection): Toss-up
Texas (John Cornyn): Likely Republican
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