THREE Westminster polls in less than 24 hours have given Nigel Farage’s Reform UK a significant lead over Labour.
The leads range from five points to thirteen, suggesting Reform UK are on to replace Labour in power at Westminster come the next General Election.
The first poll, from Find Out Now, put Reform UK on 33% of the vote with Labour trailing on just 20%. The Conservatives, on 16%, were just one point ahead of the LibDems, on 15%, while the Greens polled at 11%.
Next, Techne published its Westminster polling tracker, which put Reform UK on 28% to Labour’s 23%. The Tories were on 19%, the LibDems 14%, and the Greens 8%.
📊NEW POLL: LATEST WESTMINSTER VOTER INTENTIONS Lab 23% (-2) Cons 19% (-2)Lib Dems 14% (=) Reform 28% (+3) Greens 8% (=) SNP 3% (+1) Others 5% (=) 👥 1635 Surveyed 🔎 Field Work: 7th & 8th May 2025 🗓️ +/- 25 April 2025 🔗 Data: https://t.co/HSMFSdGXnm#UKPolitics pic.twitter.com/n4EGSFqdrW
— Techne UK (@techneUK) May 9, 2025
And finally on Friday afternoon, the i newspaper published a poll from BMG which put Reform on 32% and Labour on 22%, a 10-point lead. The Tories again polled at 19%, while the LibDems were on 13% and the Greens 9%.
Robert Struthers, head of polling at BMG Research, told that paper: “With recent local election success, our national polling now shows Reform UK surging. If repeated at an election, their commanding 10-point lead would be enough to win a majority, and likely a substantial one.”
🚨 REFORM TAKES 10-POINT LEAD IN NEW POLL 🚨@BMGResearch survey for @theipaper shows: Reform 32% Labour 22% Tories 19% Lib Dems 13% Greens 9% BMG's Rob Struthers says: "Some polls make you do a double-take. This is one of them."
— Hugo Gye (@HugoGye) May 9, 2025
He added: “If these figures were repeated at a General Election – still a big if, with the next one likely some way off – Reform could end up with between 350 and 390 seats.
“That would turn the map on its head and represent arguably the most extraordinary general election result in the history of the UK, when you consider the number of seats Reform won a year ago.”
The news comes after a week of other polls which also spelled bad news for Starmer’s Labour Party.
In Wales, where Labour has been in power since the onset of devolution in 1999, a YouGov poll found that the party’s support had “collapsed”. Published on Wednesday, the survey found that Labour were polling in third place on just 18% of the vote, behind both Plaid Cymru on 30% and Reform UK on 25%.
The Tories polled at 13%, the LibDems on 7%, and the Greens on 5%.
YouGov noted: “Just 40% of Welsh people who voted for Labour at the 2024 General Election say they will back the party in their campaign for a seventh term in Cardiff Bay, with 24% now supporting Plaid Cymru’s bid to lead the Welsh government instead.”
And in Scotland, a poll published on Wednesday – coinciding with the 2026 Holyrood campaign launches of the SNP, Tories, and Scottish Labour – predicted that Reform UK would become the second largest party in the Scottish parliament.
Projections from Professor Sir John Curtice estimated that the SNP would return 58 MSPs, Labour 18, and the Conservatives 13. Reform would move into second place as the main opposition party on 21 seats, with the Lib Dems and Greens on 10 and eight seats respectively, it said.
