The Labour-controlled council has been in the firing line since the prime minister, a former resident of the borough, decided its state comprehensives were not good enough for his sons. Mr Blair's decision to boycott Islington's secondaries for the London Oratory, a grant-maintained school in west London, will be seen to be justified because of a report tomorrow from Chris Woodhead, the chief inspector of schools.
Ministers say the report paints a bleak picture of mismanagement, suggesting that education in Islington is in many respects worse than that of neighbouring Hackney, which last week was ordered to contract out its school improvement service.
The office for standards in education found that head teachers and school governors were contemptuous of the service offered by the Islington inspection and advisory service. and that progress was being delayed at 15 schools.
The audit commission also raised serious doubts about value for money in the borough. Although Islington spends well above average on its secondary schools, GCSE results are consistently among the worst in the country. Truancy and behaviour records are also poor.
David Blunkett, the education and employment secretary, has been advised against immediate contracting-out of the education authority's weakest services.
The situation is sensitive for the government. Mr Blair dismissed calls for Mr Woodhead's resignation over his affair with a former pupil, and there are bound to be allegations now that the chief inspector is returning the favour by providing the prime minister with political cover for his rejection of Islington's schools. Mr Blair's education adviser, Andrew Adonis, is also personally involved in Islington's education service, being the governor of a secondary school seeking transformation into an arts and media college.
'Mr Blunkett does not want to be seen as making a crass political gesture because the prime minister used to live in Islington. He thinks that legally and morally the council should be given a last chance,' a department source said yesterday.
The borough has a wafer-thin Labour majority, held on the casting vote of the mayor. It will be given three months, under constant monitoring by education department officials, to push through a recovery plan. 'They will have to come up with the answers and the extent of our intervention will depend on how well they do it. They will have to draw in partners,' the source said.
The government has drawn up a list of 10 approved contractors, including businesses and local authority consortia, to bid for local education services that persistently fail.
The council had not expected the Ofsted report before the middle of next month. Last week it circulated a recovery plan to heads and governors which was intended to forestall criticism with proposals to create an 'education partnership' between councillors, schools and businesses.
Andrew Roberts, Islington's chief education officer, acknowledged 'the relatively poor academic performance of many of our schools'. Mr Roberts' 57-page report praises some education services such as school libraries, personnel management and staff appointments. But it concluded: 'Not only was there insufficient support to prevent schools failing, there has also been a noticeable lack of focused effective support to schools after they failed.'
It was not clear last night whether the government would approve the council's plan to replace its education committee with a partnership forum involving businesses.
Although ministers think the Ofsted report on Islington is the worst yet, they are understood to have considerable confidence in Islington's chief executive, Leisha Fullick.
Ofsted is preparing to publish on Thursday a highly critical report of Liverpool's education services. Ministers will call on the city's Liberal Democrat administration to take rapid remedial action.
