THERE hasn’t been much to excite or inspire Scotland’s independence movement in the last few years.
Grassroots have struggled to retain or attract volunteers, pro-independence parties have been created and folded, mainstream media have amped up their attacks and the core constitutional debate has … stagnated.
Enter the electoral wins of the SNP and Plaid Cymru earlier this month. See the congratulations from Sinn Fein following the results.
Watch as the three first ministers interact on social media, before representatives from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland meet in the belly of the beast – Westminster .
The historical situation we find ourselves in has inspired our newsroom. We have seen an evident excitement amongst our readers, with new audiences discovering our content. A palpable shift has been felt.
And so, to give us all a foundation for the latest news, analysis, research and policy announcements – The Celtic Alliance Report is here.
A quick thank you to all who have signed up and reached out with ideas, resources and messages of encouragement! We have lots in the works around this project that I can’t quite share yet, but let’s just say … we’ll be spreading our wings soon.
And I’ll be learning along with you. As someone who has been entrenched in Scottish politics for the last seven years, that has been my focus while keeping a wee eye on down south and across the water.
I’m excited to learn about their movements and devolved issues, as I’m sure those in Cymru and Éire are learning about Alba. To start us off, let’s take a quick look at where each of us is and how the position of each devolved leader is different and, potentially, evolving.
Scotland
First Minister of Scotland John Swinney has vowed not to “kowtow to 10 Downing Street” after Westminster dismissed calls for a second independence referendum.
Earlier this week, a majority of MSPs voted in favour of having the powers to hold a constitutional referendum devolved to Holyrood .
This request was swiftly rejected by the UK Government in under 15 minutes , as a Downing Street spokesperson said there was no consensus for a vote.
But speaking exclusively to my colleague Steph Brawn at Bute House, the First Minister said he is not prepared to let the UK Government off the hook with this “unacceptable” response when he meets Keir Starmer in the coming weeks.
The pair have agreed to meet face-to-face next month, with a further meeting to be held with Plaid Cymru's leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, and Northern Irish First Minister Michelle O'Neill.
Speaking to Steph, Swinney added: “What I think is important is that we demonstrate very clearly and tangibly the intense pressure there is from Scotland for us to have the choice about our own future.
“So the things I’m looking at are about how I bring people together to points of agreement about this very question. How can I build consensus within Scotland that this is an issue that has to be addressed?
"That’s different from building support for independence, which is of course what I want to do and I will make that case, but there’s a different argument which is about the right of self-determination and that can involve many other people.”
You can read her full interview with him here.
Compared to Wales and Northern Ireland, Scotland could arguably be in the hardest position. Scotland has the widest devolution settlement, with the Parliament holding extensive powers over health, education, justice, transport, some taxation and welfare, while key areas such as foreign affairs, defence, most social security and the constitution remain reserved to Westminster.
We have also already had a referendum, so that can continue to be an argument deployed by Westminster, and at times media …
But we do have the highest level of support for independence. Out of the 18 polls of 2026 so far, Yes leads in 10 of them. As the team discussed in this previous podcast, is it now a case of strength in numbers?
Wales
Rhun ap Iorwerth made history when he was elected to the role of First Minister of Wales earlier this month, after the Welsh Parliament election saw Plaid Cymru become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time.
Since then, he has said he believes he can have a “constructive dialogue” with the Prime Minister after speaking to him over the phone in the days after his appointment.
Ap Iorwerth said: “I have maintained throughout that I want it to be a constructive relationship; it felt as if we can have that constructive dialogue.
“I made very clear to the Prime Minister my determination to do the right thing for Wales… Making sure that we have the tools, the powers to make a difference to the lives of the people of Wales.
“It was important for me to spell that out in the context of that ultimate journey that I want us to be on as a nation, but explaining that right now, what I want to do is work with the UK Government to deliver for Wales.”
The priority right now for Plaid is comparable to Alex Salmond ’s government in 2007 – show, don’t tell.
Show people how a pro-independence party can lead the country, and how much more potential the country has outwith of Westminster control.
Ap Iorwerth has vowed to press the case for devolution of justice and policing, the Crown Estate, funding from High Speed 2 rail, and a "fair funding formula".
He has also ruled out trying to hold a referendum on independence in the first term of a government, but will set up a national commission that will look at building the case for Wales as a separate nation-state, like we have seen in Holyrood already.
The latest poll in Wales put support for independence at 26%, with 12% undecided. That was in January 2026, so evidently, polling is much less regular than we are used to in Scotland. The poll before that, in March 2025 and nearly a whole year prior, saw support at 35%.
Northern Ireland
First Minister of Northern Ireland Michelle O’Neill has been the most vocal on social media about the three leaders aligning. She posted while in Westminster in mid-May that she and Sinn Fein party president Mary Lou McDonald met with SNP’s new Westminster leader Dave Doogan and Plaid Cymru’s Liz Saville Roberts.
McDonald has previously said an Irish reunification referendum will happen by 2030, and that is entirely possible.
Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, there is a pathway for a reunification poll to be held in Northern Ireland.
The legislation states that "if at any time it appears likely" that a "majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland," then the Northern Ireland secretary will order a vote.
However, according to the Institute for Government, there is no parallel mechanism in the Good Friday Agreement for a referendum in the Republic of Ireland, where McDonald is a politician.
But it sets out that at least two referendums would need to be held – one on the principle of reunification, and then one to amend the constitution if Northern Ireland agrees to join the Republic of Ireland following negotiations.
Now, a recent poll tells us why this is entirely possible.
A majority of people on the island of Ireland would vote for Irish unity as part of the EU, it was found earlier this month, one day before the elections in Scotland and Wales.
The poll indicated that if a referendum were held tomorrow on a united Ireland in the EU, 59% in Ireland would vote in favour and 22% against, with 63% voting in favour in Northern Ireland and 29% against.
Almost three-quarters of respondents in Northern Ireland said that if the UK held a referendum tomorrow on rejoining the EU, they would vote in favour (73%), with 23% stating they would vote against.
European Movement Ireland’s Island of Ireland EU Poll 2026, conducted by Amarach Research, also found that support for Ireland remaining a member of the EU is at 82% in Ireland.
Indeed 2025, as described by Professor Colin Harvey from Queen's University Belfast, was “another successful year for the unity movement” with “a deepening acceptance of the path” the island is on.
More on that and more from Professor Harvey in a future newsletter!
I hope that gives us a good foundation to go forward with. Scotland is actively seeking an independence referendum, Wales is purposefully growing support, while the island of Ireland is engaged in debate and seeking consensus on next steps with a legal route to reunification protected.
It is unclear the date of Swinney’s meeting with Starmer, and the four of them meeting together, but we will give you all the latest on that when we have it.
Thanks for reading the first edition. See you next week.
