What three games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Thursday of Week 1? Here you go. Enjoy.
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For Saturday and throughout the season, this will be the Ten Best Picks Against The Spread piece, but there are only six FBS vs. FBS games against the spread on Thursday night, so it’s being whittled down to three.
We’re all pacing ourselves to kickoff the season.
Best ATS Picks So Far: 0-0
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
3. UCLA at Cincinnati
playMGM LINE: Cincinnati -2.5, o/u: 58
ATS PICK: UCLA
It’s not like Cincinnati destroyed UCLA to start out the Chip Kelly era.
The Bearcats went into Pasadena and pulled off a 26-17 stunner last season, but lost in the narrative of the miserable 3-9 Bruin season was 1) it was 17-17 going into the fourth quarter, 2) star RB Joshua Kelley carried the ball just six times, and 3) the Bruins outgained the Bearcats.
Does UCLA have the lines to hold up this time around? To be blunt – sort of.
It’s a far more experienced Bruin offensive line in this year’s matchup, and the defensive front is big enough with just enough veterans to hold up on the road against a bruising Bearcat ground game.
It was a whole lot nicer when UCLA was getting 4.5, but the 2.5 shouldn’t be a big deal considering the Pac-12er is going to win outright.
Kelley appears to be okay after missing time with a knee problem, but the Bruin offense is far deeper in this year’s matchup. UCLA’s offense won’t go off, but the defense will do a far better job of holding on this year.
Cincinnati converted three of four fourth down tries last season as it was able to maintain control of the clock and the game. That’s not happening this year.
Get tickets for UCLA vs. Cincinnati
NEXT: It’s scary going with the unknown, but …
2. Georgia Tech at Clemson
playMGM LINE: Clemson -37, o/u: 59.5
ATS PICK: Georgia Tech
The beauty of this is how the line just keeps going on up.
It started at Clemson -33.5, hovered around 35 for a while, and now it’s up to a whopping 37.
Of course the Tigers are going to want to make a statement at home. Of course they’re going to care about beating an ACC team.
Of course they’re not going to want to tax the starters any longer than they have to with Texas A&M and a trip to Syracuse coming up next.
Clemson can and will win this in an easy blowout and still not cover the 37.
When was the last time Georgia Tech lost a game by 30 or more? The 42-10 defeat at Georgia in 2010. When was the last time the program lost a game by more than 37? The 2005 team din’t show up in a 51-7 pasting at Virginia Tech.
How well will the Yellow Jackets pivot from the option attack under new head coach Geoff Collins? They won’t be pretty, but all it might take is one touchdown to be okay here.
Clemson was able to bury three FBS teams – Wake Forest, Florida State, Louisville – by more than 37 last season – but it also had the habit of easing up off the throttle a wee bit once games were out of reach.
The game will be over by halftime – and you’ll like that when you take Georgia Tech and the points.
Get tickets for Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
NEXT: Speaking of next week’s massive showdown …
1. Texas State at Texas A&M
playMGM LINE: Texas A&M -33.5, o/u: 56.5
ATS PICK: Texas A&M
Texas State is going to be better under new head man Jake Spavital.
It’s going to start bombing away more with the passing game, all five starters return on the O line, and the defense is loaded with veterans.
The offense isn’t going to be that great right away.
TXST has a size problem, and Texas A&M will take advantage of that throughout the game.
There’s a fear the Aggies will be looking ahead to the showdown against Clemson, and for all the problems, the Bobcats didn’t lose by 34 or more all of last season. But last year’s A&M team beat a far more dangerous ULM squad from the Sun Belt 48-10.
The Aggies started 2018 with a 59-7 win over Northwestern State, and closed it with a 52-13 win over NC State. Of course, last season doesn’t matter when figuring out this year, except that the 2019 A&M team is better.
It’s not going to be a layup to get to 34+ point win – there will be some sweating. But the Aggies won’t look ahead to Clemson, they’ll flirt with 50 points, and the Bobcats won’t have an answer outside of two decent scoring drives that won’t be enough.
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All The Week 1 Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC
– Week 1 Expert Picks & Predictions: Saturday
