What three games appear to be the best bets and the best over/under point total predictions going into Thursday of Week 1? Here you go. Enjoy.
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The point total calls are a wee bit easier than the against the spread predictions to start the season. The teams are all going to be a bit spotty and flaky early on, but it’s sometimes easier to see when the big shootout is coming or if it’s going to be a slopfest.
Best ATS Picks So Far: 0-0
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3. Texas State at Texas A&M
playMGM LINE: Texas A&M -33.5, o/u: 56.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over
Can the fired up team with the improved offense take care of most of a point total by itself? In this case, yes.
There’s a bit of a concern about a Texas State defense that wasn’t all that bad last season, gets back everyone in the secondary, and returns ten of the top 12 tacklers.
This is going to be a very good and very sound Bobcat defense, and it’s not going to matter all that much after A&M gets on a roll early on.
TXST just doesn’t have the bulk on either side.
This might take a while to get rolling, though.
Assuming the Texas A&M defense will take it easy in the second half – and assuming a slew of key parts are going to come out and rest up for Clemson – Texas State should be just good enough to come up with ten points. That might have been like pulling teeth out of last year’s offense, but this season under a new coaching staff, the O will come up with a few positives.
Get ten out of the Sun Belter, and all your asking for out of Texas A&M is 47 points. Under Jimbo Fisher last season, the Aggie O hit that four times, and seven of the 13 games went over 56.5 points.
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NEXT: Yeah, it’s no fun to do this, but …
2. Kent State at Arizona State
playMGM LINE: Arizona State -25, o/u: 62
ATS PICK: Under
You can get this at around 60 if you look hard enough, but considering you want the under, hope for this to keep going on up – and you can get it at 62.5 at some places.
This is all about whether or not Kent State can score.
It’s gong to be a late night game – 10 pm in Kent State time – and while the offense should be better, it’s not going to go off. Plenty of experience and lots of good parts are back, but the Golden Flashes aren’t going to be unstoppable after only scoring 153 points last season – 38 of them came against Howard.
How many Kent State games went over 62 points? Two, and that was late in the season when the defense fall off the map.
Again, though, it’s the offense that you care about. Clemson was able to put up 56 – and the two teams combined for 59. Bowling Green scored 44 – and the total got to 60. Louisville scored 42, and the 45 combined points didn’t come close to 62.
Arizona State will do its part by scoring a whole lot fo points, and then the defense will take care of the rest. The Sun Devils will be in the 40s, the Golden Flashes will be in the teens, and you’ll be fine.
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NEXT: This is going to be fun. Tough, but fun …
1. Utah at BYU
playMGM LINE: Utah -6, o/u: 48.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under
The total fell through the floor.
It started out at 57.5, the public realized it was raining money with that, hammered it WAY too hard, and it dropped almost ten points.
The betting public got greedy.
LOVED the under at 57.5, and still sort want to be friends with benefits at 48.5.
Last year’s Holy War ended up a thrilling 35-27 Utah comeback win, but these two combined for 32 points in 2017 after working together to get to 39 in 2016.
Utah might have amore fun offense – it gets back its stars in the backfield – and BYU’s Zach Wilson is a rising star, but it’ll be the defenses that rule the day.
The Cougars gave up more than 23 points just three times – losing all three – and this year they have a better-looking defense.
Utah comes back loaded, and that’s going to help here with a D that should be among the Pac-12’s and nation’s best. It’ll be a concern on offense, though, after scoring 40 or more five times.
In this year’s battle, expect a whole lot of stalled drives, and whole bunch of filed goal attempts, and a fight to the end – you’re going to need a defensive stop to get this under. by the way.
But you’ll get there.
All The Week 1 Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC
– Week 1 Expert Picks & Predictions: Saturday
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