What three games appear to be the best bets and the best over/under point total predictions going into Friday of Week 1? Here you go. Enjoy.
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It’s Week 1 … the point totals are generally more getable and predictable than the spread.
At least in theory.
Out of the eight FBS vs. FBS games on Friday night, there are plenty to choose from – look at the under on Wisconsin-USF 58.5, too. Here are the three that appear to be the tastiest.
Best ATS Picks So Far: 2-1
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3. Purdue at Nevada
playMGM LINE: Purdue -11, o/u: 58
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over
The one main concern is the Nevada defense.
For years, the Wolf Pack D was merely a polite suggestion, but last year it was fantastic. It allowed just 142 yards per game and closed the season on a tear, giving up 13 points or fewer in three of the last four games.
Even though the Wolf Pack defense was able to do its job, two of the last four games and six games on the season went over 58. And …
That’s last year.
Four of the top five Nevada tacklers and six starters are gone. On the other side, the Purdue secondary has some retooling to do from a defense that was the second-worst in the Big Ten and the third-worst in all of college football against the pass.
The Boilermaker offense might have been inconsistent and struggled throughout last year, but it should be a whole lot sharper and explosive.
Expect Purdue to handle most of the work and get to at least 30 points, Nevada will also get to at least 30 points, and between the two, this should be closer to 68 than 58.
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NEXT: Defense, schmefense …
2. Utah State at Wake Forest
playMGM LINE: Wake Forest -3.5, o/u: 60
ATS PICK: Over
America, did you not see Wake Forest games last season?
The Demon Deacons didn’t play a lick of defense for stretches, the offense was able to explode for 50 or more points four times, and now that D – the second-worst in The ACC – has to replace just about everyone up front.
Wake Forest, meet Jordan Love.
The Aggie quarterback is one of the most dynamic returning passers in college football, and if he gets a little time to work, he’s about to have a huge day.
The Utah State defense is coming off a terrific season and should be solid under new head man Gary Andersen, but it struggled against teams with actual talent. Michigan State and Boise State were the two good teams on the slate, and they went for 38 and 33 points, respectively.
On the other side, the offense was sharp enough to score 42 points or more nine times. The Aggies don’t have to crank out that many, but they should be able to push the Demon Deacons for at least 30 points.
The two teams will play in the 30s and be a whole lot close to 70 than 60.
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NEXT: If this works like it’s supposed to …
1. Tulsa at Michigan State
playMGM LINE: Michigan State -23, o/u: 48
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under
This is all about banking on the Michigan State being the Michigan State defense again, and the Michigan State offense not quite being the better than last year’s Michigan State offense.
The Spartans led the nation against the run and finished the season giving up just 17 points per game. Best of all, most of the big parts are returning after giving up seven points or fewer four times in the last seven games.
But 48 isn’t a big total, and the improved Spartan offense might bite out a big chunk of that, if not all of it.
MSU didn’t score more than 38 all of last season, and doesn’t score more than 24 over the last nine games. However, nine starters return, and QB Brian Lewerke should be a whole lot stronger.
On the other side, Tulsa doesn’t have the offensive line to handle what’s coming.
The skill players are okay, but be stunned if the Golden Hurricane can push past more than ten points. Each of the last four Tulsa games last season blew past the 48 point mark, but that was last year, and none of the games were against the this Spartan D.
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All The Week 1 Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
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– Week 1 Expert Picks & Predictions: Saturday
