Among the biggest decisions facing general manager Brian Gutekunst and the Green Bay Packers is the future of outside linebacker Preston Smith, who is under contract for the next two seasons but also a prime cap casualty candidate given his production regression in 2020 and the potential cap savings in 2021.
Here are a few thoughts on Smith’s future with the Packers:
– Smith had a poor season in 2020. No way around it. While good for a big play every now and then, he wasn’t consistently disruptive or active as a rusher or run defender. Smith had as many offsides penalties (four) as sacks.
– The Packers can designate Smith as a June 1 cut and save $12 million on the cap in 2021. It’s going to be very difficult to pass up that chunk of savings. Even if he’s cut pre-June 1 cut, the Packers can save $8 million. They need to shed as much as $30 million before the start of the new league year.
– Without a June 1 designation, the Packers would be taking on $8 million in dead cap in 2021. That’s a significant amount of money to essentially light on fire, especially during a year with shrunken cap.
– Maybe the Packers can find a trade partner. It could be hard to move that contract, but not all teams are fighting the cap as hard as the Packers in 2021, and Smith is still relatively young with a history of production disrupting the quarterback. Creating the cap savings while getting something back in return – maybe a draft pick capable of providing a draft pick on a cheap contract – might be the best case scenario.
– The Packers replaced defensive coordinator Mike Pettine with Joe Barry, who was the defensive coordinator in Washington during Smith’s rookie season. That past connection could give him a better shot at sticking around on a restructured deal.
– Rashan Gary looked like a legitimate difference maker down the stretch of his second season. If Smith is released, a starting spot and many more opportunities will be available fo Gary, who could be on the verge of a true breakout season in 2021.
– The Packers may already see Gary as the starter opposite Za’Darius Smith in 2021. If that’s the case, Preston Smith is almost certainly gone. No team is paying that much for a rotational/backup player, even at edge rusher.
– It’s never easy to part ways with pass-rushers, especially pass-rushers just one season removed from producing 12 sacks, 23 quarterback hits and 11 tackles for losses.
– Smith’s career has had up-and-down swings, especially over the last four seasons. For whatever reason, he’s been productive one year, and then much less productive the next. If the trend continues, Smith could have a better year in 2022.
– Players know the NFL is a business, but Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith are close, and parting ways with Preston could negatively impact Za’Darius. This is a small factor, but locker room chemistry is something the Packers care greatly about.
– Smith has never missed a game over his six-year NFL career. Teams certainly value reliability. At the very least, the Packers can probably count on Smith playing 16 games next season.
– When all the factors are considered, it’s hard to imagine the Packers not moving on from Preston Smith at some point in the next month so. He regressed sharply in 2020, his position group has an ascending player needing more opportunities, and releasing him – especially with a post-June 1 designation – provides significant cap relief.
