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Bristol Post
Bristol Post
National
Kate Wilson

This is who would keep their seats in Bristol if there was a general election

The fourth national poll in less than five years is looking more and more likely, with Boris Johnson poised to call for a general election if he is defeated in the parliamentary showdown over Brexit.

In fact British bookies have slashed the odds on there being a general election in 2019.

According to the Oddschecker website, some firms are offering odds of 1/6 on there being a general election this year - that's equivalent of 86.7 per cent.

But will Mr Johnson's "do or die" commitment to leaving the EU by the October 31 deadline and lavish policy pledges be enough to tip the balance of the House of Commons in his favour?

Or will Jeremy Corbyn's anti no-deal activism and push for drastic change for the nation turn the tide against a dramatic departure from the bloc?

The result is impossible to predict with even a slither of confidence - particularly in this tumultuous modern era of politics.

But the Electoral Calculus website, which uses data from a range of polls to predict how an election might work out, suggests a  Conservative majority is the most likely outcome of a General Election .

And that the Tories could come out of the election with a majority of 62 seats, with Labour in second place.

But what about our local MPs? How many of them would keep their seats if there was an election on October 14?

Here is what the Electoral Calculus predicts for each seat - of course this could easily change in the upcoming, weeks, days, hours.

Bristol East

It looks like Labour MP Kerry McCarthy would keep her seat in the event of a general election.

Bristol West

It looks like Thangam Debbonaire would be safe as well - although the Liberal Democrats are expected to increase their vote share significantly.

The Lib Dems came in fourth in Bristol west in 2017 behind the Conservatives and the Greens with just 7.3 per cent of the vote compared to Labour's almost 66 per cent.

But according to the data the Lib Dems could take home 31 per cent of the vote - reducing Labour's huge majority from two years to only 12 per cent.

Bristol North West

Here it seems that Labour MP Darren Jones would lose his seat to the Tories.

It was a pretty closely fought seat in 2017 - with Mr Jones narrowly taking the seat from Conservative MP Charlotte Leslie.

Bristol South

Karin Smyth's seat looks pretty safe for Labour at the moment. Although her vote majority from looks set to drop from 60 per cent to 49 per cent.

Filton and Bradley Stoke

This looks set to be a Conservative hold - with Jack Lopresti not only retaining his seat but also increasing his majority significantly.

It was a very close race back in 2017 - but not so much this time around.

Thornbury and Yate

We could have a Liberal Democrat MP in our midst.

It looks like the Lib Dems could take the current Tory held seat of Thornbury and Yate from Luke Hall.

The party came in second in 2017 behind the Tories in this consitituency.

Kingswood

Chris Skidmore's seat looks more than safe.

Not only are the Tories predicted to hold the Kingswood constituency but their majority looks set to increase to 75 per cent.

North Somerset

Liam Fox has had a tumultuous year after being fired from the Government by incoming Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

But despite losing favour with the PM it looks like his constituents remain convinced of his ability as an MP.

Dr Fox is predicted not only to keep his seat - but also massively increase his majority.

He is expected to take home 76 per cent of the vote - with the Lib Dems moving into second place with just 18 per cent.

Labour is predicted to only get three per cent of the vote compared to 26 per cent in 2017.

Weston-super-Mare

John Penrose's seat looks pretty safe as well and he is expected to significantly increase his majority as well.

It's a pretty similar picture to Liam Fox - with the Lib Dems moving into second place and Labour dropping into third.

Here The Brexit Party looks like it could take fourth place - just two per cent of the vote behind Labour.

North East Somerset

Again a very similar scenario to the other MPs representing North Somerset, with Jacob Rees-Mogg not only retaining his seat but increasing his majority by more than 20 per cent.

For the latest news in and around Bristol, you can check back on Bristol Live's homepage.

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