It’s impossible to overstate the sense of shock that swept across Scotland when it was revealed what charges Alex Salmond is facing after his appearance on petition at Edinburgh sheriff court last Thursday. Scotland’s former first minister has been charged with two counts of attempted rape and multiple counts of sexual assault. He immediately said that he was “innocent of any criminality whatsoever” and would defend himself in court “to the utmost”. In Holyrood a little while later, Nicola Sturgeon cut a weary figure as she talked about how shocked “many people” would be at this news.
Scotland is weeks away from being dragged out of the European Union against its overwhelmingly settled will, while even the most fervently rightwing publications have stopped pretending that all will be well across the nation following a possible no-deal Brexit. And yet this most profoundly damaging event will be submerged in terms of importance by the long list of very serious charges that Salmond must face. It’s highly unlikely that this case will be heard in court before another 12 months have elapsed.
Already, some predictable voices have begun to assess what “damage” the Salmond case will inflict on the SNP and the wider independence movement. Some of these will require to exercise a degree more caution in discussing this in public forums than has been apparent until now. To talk about “scandals” and “damage” in the case of an individual who remains innocent until proved guilty risks prejudicing the integrity of future proceedings.
Drawing parallels with events in history that bear some of the imprints of this case is not a wise course to follow either. The time to assess how much this case has affected the movement that Salmond once led will come at the end of the case.
Very little of the way that this case has been reported so far has spared the feelings of the women who have made these allegations. Much has been said about creating a safe space for people in all walks of life to come forward and seek to have their concerns about possible misconduct heard. The way this case unfolds and how it is reported will have a profound bearing on the willingness of many women to place their trust in the process. Thus far, the mental welfare of those at the centre of the media frenzy has not been a consideration.
What can be permitted is some analysis of how much the due processes of the law in this case will affect any timetable for a second referendum on Scottish independence. It now seems unthinkable that Sturgeon will make any moves towards a referendum in the near future and certainly not before the case arrives in court. Effectively, the question of a second referendum is off the table until the autumn of 2020 at the earliest. This will play to Sturgeon’s political instincts. She had been coming under increasing pressure from some in her own party to signal an early referendum as the prospect of a no-deal Brexit begins to form.
The absence of anything remotely approaching good leadership by either Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn over Brexit had once more cast Sturgeon’s adroit interventions from a Scottish perspective in a favourable light. The trickle of UK companies seeking to relocate elsewhere now resembles a wave and each week seems to reveal the perfidy of another hard Brexiter in accepting cash payments and plum directorships from interested firms. Last week, just days after May had promised an enhanced role for the devolved governments in Brexit negotiations, yet another meeting of the joint ministerial committee was cancelled.
This all seemed to be providing a favourable wind for those in the SNP who advocate an early referendum. The developments in the Salmond case render any such thoughts redundant. Moreover, the sheer number and scope of the charges he faces make it likely that several key personnel involved in the SNP’s rise to the pinnacle of Scottish politics may consider that they have more pressing issues to contend with in the coming months.
Since the news of the impending police investigation into allegations of misconduct was broken last August, some have sought to make political capital by claiming that the SNP is grievously split between Salmond supporters and Sturgeon supporters. In the light of the charge sheet that followed Salmond’s arrest, such talk has become facile and not a little callous. There has never been any evidence of a split along these lines among the ordinary members of the party, the overwhelming majority of whom hold each in high esteem.
Following publication of the charges against Salmond, there was barely disguised glee being expressed across social media, including by some experienced observers who ought to know better. Again, little of this was expressed with any thought to the feelings of those making the accusations, who are also facing the distressing prospect of a trial.
Senior SNP figures who have professed surprise at the seriousness of the charges facing Salmond may now be discussing historic timelines and consulting old diaries. As they do so, they should be advised to keep a lid on the scarecrow wing of the party, who, even now, are loudly proclaiming a Westminster stitch-up of their former leader and MI5 plots. Such sentiments are delusional and risk undermining the credibility of the independence case.
• Kevin McKenna is an Observer columnist
