Global efforts to address climate change are — still — going far better today than they were a decade ago, even with recent politics pushing the problem to the back burner.
Why it matters: We humans usually operate on daily, monthly and yearly time frames. So it can be easy to miss the energy transition unfolding over decades and centuries.
Driving the news: The chart above compares two projections on greenhouse gas emissions from the International Energy Agency to one it did more than a decade ago.
- The larger gap between the top line compared to the lower two shows the progress made on clean energy over the last decade.
What they're saying: "This progress is not part of the prevailing view of climate change, but it should be," philanthropist Bill Gates said in his recent controversial memo while featuring a similar chart.
State of play: Clean energy, largely wind and solar, have grown significantly over the last decade, due largely to policies by a range of countries, including China, Germany and the U.S.
- Now they're more affordable than ever, which is pushing the energy transition forward even as policy stalls in key regions like the U.S.
- Natural gas, which emits far less carbon dioxide than coal, is also helping reduce emissions in the short term (though longer term its role is more complicated).
How it works: The chart above shows three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios from the IEA.
- The top blue line shows what the IEA was predicting would happen with policies in place and under consideration back in 2014.
- The middle pink line shows what IEA is predicting today based upon policies currently in place.
- The lower purple line shows where emissions from the energy sector could go if policies under consideration are put in place.
Reality check: Even so, past performance doesn't dictate future results.
"There is no guarantee that we will take stronger action on climate change in the future. I hope we will. I think we will because that's been the trend over the last few decades," said Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather in an interview.
- "If the 21st century is led by leaders who share ideology closer to the Trump administration, we won't."
The bottom line: The possible trajectories are better than a decade ago, but they still indicate significant global warming.
- When it comes to the impact of more extreme weather, the difference we're talking about is bad compared to worse. It's already going to be bad, but we've made it less bad in the last decade.
Disclosure: Amy Harder is the former founding executive editor of Cipher News, an independent news outlet supported by Bill Gates' climate and energy initiative Breakthrough Energy.
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