The Brecon and Radnorshire byelection result was a surprise for many Tory MPs – but not because they lost. Instead, it’s because of how close they came to holding on to the seat. Ahead of the vote, the Conservatives had appeared to be following a beginner’s guide on how to lose byelections and alienate voters. The vote had been triggered by a recall petition after the incumbent Tory MP, Chris Davies, was found guilty of submitting fake expenses claims. The Conservative response? To reselect him as a candidate – rather than opt for a baggage-free contender.
As for the campaign, it’s not as though the Tories went all out. MPs complain of a “defeatist” attitude in Conservative campaign headquarters. Boris Johnson made a perfunctory visit to the seat on his first trip to Wales as prime minister. A handful of Tory MPs tweeted that they would be out campaigning. The general mood was that the Liberal Democrats were on an unstoppable path to victory and the Tory working majority in parliament would be reduced to one. It followed that it was beneficial to have a candidate they could blame the loss on rather than a defeat that could be cast as the new leader falling short.
In the end it was close. The Liberal Democrats did succeed in turning over Davies’s 8,038 majority – winning the seat back with a majority of 1,425. To the Lib Dems’ 13,826 votes, the Tories managed 12,401. That means the seat ought to be a target seat for the party at the next general election, one that could come sooner rather than later.
There are 650 MPs in total. After the Brecon and Radnorshire byelection the Conservatives have 310 MPs. They also have 10 Democratic Ulster Unionist MPs who have agreed to vote with the government on a confidence and supply basis, giving Boris Johnson a bloc of 320 MPs.
In opposition, the Labour party have 245 MPs, the Scottish National party have 35, the Liberal Democrats 13, Plaid Cymru four and the Green party one. This adds up to a bloc of 298.
There are 11 MPs who do not vote: the Speaker and his three deputies, and the seven Sinn Féin MPs who do not attend the Commons as a matter of principle.
There are 21 MPs who are either independent, or part of the Independent Group for Change. If all of these MPs vote against the government, along with the opposition parties, this totals 319, giving the prime minister a working majority of one.
In practice, one of those independents, Charlie Elphicke, who is currently suspended from the Tory party while charged with sexual assault, is likely to vote with the government. A further complication is that the Labour MP Jared O’Mara has been largely absent from parliament and says he intends to quit in September.
While some Tories are more upbeat than usual for a byelection loss (with others angry that more effort wasn’t put in), the result ought to give Johnson pause for thought on how his party should pitch itself in a general election. Part of the reason the Liberal Democrats succeeded in the seat is that they benefited from a remain alliance. Plaid Cymru and the Greens agreed not to stand, in a bid to help a remain MP get elected. The success of this arrangement means it would likely be repeated in a general election. However, the Conservatives have no current route to a pro-Brexit alliance to counter this. Instead, the nearest pro-Brexit party is proving a thorn in their side.
The Brexit party won 3,331 votes in the byelection. This cannot be described as the performance of a party on the cusp of breaking the two-party system, as Nigel Farage has predicted. However, it could cost the Tories a general election. If less than half of the voters who moved to the Brexit party had backed the Tories, the Conservatives would have kept hold of the seat. This is a problem as a Tory/Brexit party electoral pact is unlikely. Johnson has repeatedly ruled out agreeing to an electoral pact with the Brexit party, and Farage has said he has no plans to stand his party down. Throughout the Tory leadership campaign, Johnson won cheers and support by saying that he was the leader to put the Brexit party back in its box. The idea of doing a deal with Farage wouldn’t just be damaging to Johnson’s ego. A bulk of Tory MPs view it as electorally toxic. There is a sense that the route to winning a majority at a general election rests on not only uniting the leave vote – but also keeping Tory remain voters on side.
Will this result put Johnson off the prospect of an early election? With a majority of just one, it is not really in the Tories’ hands to decide. The only way to definitely avoid one is to extend article 50 if no deal can be reached – as Theresa May did. However, this would go down terribly with their core support and likely push more voters to Farage. It follows that the options ahead for winning an election are limited. The two most recent byelections (Thursday’s and Peterborough in June) have demonstrated the threat that even an ineffectual Brexit party poses. Had the Brexit party not been in the picture, the Tories would have had a better chance of winning both.
The Tories are clear that keeping hold of the leave vote at the next election is essential to their success. In the event of an early election, their challenge – and the one currently being explored by No 10 – is to deliver Brexit, and if that fails put the blame for any delay at the door of the EU rather than themselves. In doing so, they hope to negate the Brexit party. This would mean that even if MPs manage to stop the government and bring about an early election before the UK has left the EU, the Tories have to look as though they had done everything possible to try to deliver it. It’s a tall order, but they have little choice other than to try.
• Katy Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editor
