Third wave could last until autumn and 'overshoot' herd immunity, warn scientists

The UK could face Covid cases of 100,000 a day running into autumn with the rate of infection “overshooting” herd immunity, scientists have warned.

Carl Theodore Bergstrom, a University of Washington biologist, said that opening up too early means that cases will rise and it will take longer to get the virus under control through vaccines and immunity.

Boris Johnson is expected to confirm on Monday that a final easing of coronavirus restrictions will take place in England on July 19.

Mask wearing will no longer be a legal requirement, rules on social distancing will be scrapped in most situations, and nightclubs will be able to reopen.

Brits will also be able to travel to amber-listed countries in Europe and not need to quarantine when they return.

Carl Theodore Bergstrom has said that the rate of infection could "overshoot" herd immunity (REUTERS)

It comes as infections are on the rise but a spike in people being hospitalised with Covid has not happened suggesting the vaccines are taking effect.

But Prof Bergstrom is concerned that rising infections delays the time for herd immunity to happen.

He tweeted: “Implementing aggressive controls for even a short period around the herd immunity threshold reduces the overshoot and prevents many cases that would have occurred without control.

“For this reason, it’s a big mistake to open up right when you're reaching the herd immunity threshold but before the number of current cases – the momentum of the pandemic, so to speak – is low.

“This will generate a larger overshoot and lead to many preventable infections.”

It is expected that there will be a surge in Covid cases when restrictions end and Health Secretary Sajid Javid has warned that it could get up to 100,000 a day.

Professor Adam Kucharski has suggested that the peak of up to 100,000 cases a day might not be brief (Collect Unknown)

Scientists remain uncertain about the exact impact of the decision to open up.

Prof Adam Kucharski, a London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine told The Telegraph: “It’s very difficult to predict, but the peak could easily get into the 50,000-100,000 daily cases range.

“It’s also unlikely to be a brief, sharp peak, but rather a longer plateau over the summer into autumn.”

The government has not ruled out bringing back restrictions in the autumn if hospitalisations are high with vaccine passports a possibility.

The rate of new cases of coronavirus in most areas of England is now back at levels last seen during the winter.

A total of 154,262 new confirmed cases were recorded in England in the seven days to July 4, according to Public Health England - the equivalent of 274.1 cases per 100,000 people.