Former President Donald Trump is set to make his return to Wisconsin for the first time in nearly two years, drawing attention from both Democrats and Republicans as they gear up for the upcoming general election in this crucial battleground state.
As Wisconsin voters participate in a symbolic primary election, an independent candidate, Robert Kennedy Jr., has emerged as a potential wildcard that is causing concern for both major parties. Kennedy's candidacy poses a significant threat to the traditional Biden-Trump matchup, reminiscent of the impact third-party challengers can have on election outcomes.
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden narrowly secured victory in Wisconsin by less than 21,000 votes, with no Green Party candidates on the ballot. However, in the previous election, Trump won the state by nearly 23,000 votes, with the Green Party's Jill Stein garnering over 30,000 votes. This history underscores the potential influence of third-party candidates like Kennedy, who, along with other contenders, is positioning himself as an alternative for voters dissatisfied with the main candidates.
Democrats are particularly wary of Kennedy's candidacy, as internal divisions within the party have been exacerbated by Biden's stance on Israel's conflict in Gaza. Progressives are advocating for protest votes, urging Democrats to consider alternative options as a means of signaling discontent with Biden's policies.
A recent national poll conducted by Marquette University Law School in February revealed the volatility of the upcoming general election. The survey indicated that Trump held a slight lead over Biden, 51% to 49%, among registered voters, falling within the margin of error. However, when third-party candidates were included in the poll, both Biden and Trump experienced a decrease in support by approximately 10 percentage points. Trump garnered 42% of the vote, Biden received 39%, and Kennedy captured 15%, with other third-party candidates collectively securing 5% of the vote. This data suggests that a significant portion of voters may be open to casting a third-party ballot in the upcoming election.
