Afternoon summary
- Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, has said NHS England is “not meeting core patient access standards” in an annual assessment of the service. (See 3.08pm.)
- Moody’s, the credit ratings agency, has the UK economy could be tipped into recession if Britain fails to land a deal with the European Union. (See 3.15pm.)
- The department for communities and local government (DCLG) has said that all tower blocks that have had cladding tested have failed fire safety tests. As the Press Association reports, DCLG said 243 buildings in 57 local authorities had failed combustibility tests. These comprise 235 high-rise residential buildings, one combined school and residential building, another school and six buildings at five NHS trusts.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Nick de Bois, one of the Tories who lost his seat at the election, has backed what Charles Walker said about disloyal cabinet ministers. (See 2.08pm.)
Weel said Charles Walker MP - PM ‘will have support of 1922 Comm if she has to start removing ministers if they not focusing on their job’.
— Nick de Bois (@nickdebois) July 18, 2017
The FDA, the trade union for top civil servants, says the senior salaries review body report published today (see 10.55am) undermines the claim made by Philip Hammond, the chancellor, at the weekend that public sector workers are better paid than their private sector counterparts. Naomi Cooke, the FDA assistant general secretary, said:
Despite recent talk of a public sector pay ‘premium’ when compared with the private sector, the SSRB’s report shows that the pay of our members – who do some of the most complex and vital jobs in public service – ‘lags significantly behind the private sector’, causing recruitment and retention problems in a number of areas.
In fact, the government’s figures show that the bulk of the senior civil service - deputy directors - are almost £14,000 a year worse off than they were in 2010, and now earn 46% less than their private sector counterparts – even when pensions are taken into account.
That gap rises to a staggering 71% at director-level. It’s little wonder, then, that more than half of those leaving the senior civil service last year blamed pay for their exit and one in four recruitment exercises is unsuccessful.
Our members have delivered billions of pounds of savings over the past seven years and now face the most complicated political challenge since the Second World War in the form of Brexit. Yet they’ve been rewarded with rapidly escalating costs just to stand still, ever-greater workloads, and ministerial pressure to deliver with the smallest workforce since the 1940s.
The FDA also urged the government to drop the 1% pay cap.
Moody’s, the credit ratings agency, has issued a research report today about what would happen if the UK and the EU fail to reach a Brexit deal. Here’s an extract from its summary.
Under a ‘no deal’ scenario, the UK would likely see slower growth or outright recession, higher unemployment and higher inflation, which would be credit negative for a range of UK issuers. Restrictions on immigration may exacerbate skill shortages in certain sectors.
A weaker economy would weigh on UK corporate credit metrics, with reduced demand weakening revenues and profitability. While the specific impact would vary sector by sector, companies reliant on just-in-time supply chains could be severely affected by increased border inspections.
For regulated power networks, water companies and UK bus and rail, the impact should be small because they largely operate domestically. For other infrastructure issuers, the impact could be substantial, reflecting the loss of institutional arrangements that the UK enjoys as an EU member. The impact of ‘no deal’ on the airports, aviation and ports sectors could be dramatic.
Hunt says NHS is 'not meeting core patient access standards'
NHS England is “not meeting core patient access standards”, Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, said today. In a written ministerial statement summarising his annual assessment of the NHS, he said:
NHS England’s core aim is to deliver excellence in access and outcomes for patients and, this year, substantial advances have been made across a number of areas, including mental health, maternity care and diabetes prevention. NHS England has also made a significant contribution to overall financial balance in the NHS.
However, continued growth in demand has put pressure on services and the NHS is not meeting core patient access standards. This remains a key priority and, to help address this, in 2017-18 NHS England will need to better manage demand, including by working with local government to ensure patients are transferred to more appropriate care when they are fit to leave hospital. To support this, the government has provided an extra £2bn for local authority-funded adult social care over the next three years, with £1bn available in 17/18.
My assessment sets out the government’s expectation that the NHS will make further progress in the year ahead on achieving parity of esteem for mental health. Continuing the constructive joint working with NHS Improvement and Health Education England to better manage the challenges the NHS experiences over winter, as well as continuing progress to retain and increase the workforce, will be key. We will also look to NHS England, working with NHS Improvement, to deliver a balanced NHS budget.
Lunchtime summary
- Theresa May has been told that Tory backbenchers will back her if she sacks disloyal cabinet minister. In an interview with the World at One, Charles Walker, a vice chair of the Conservative backbench 1922 committee, said that he was “very angry” about the the disloyalty some cabinet ministers were showing. He said:
The party is united behind the prime minister. And those who have leadership ambitions should really try to understand that. They are not doing themselves any favours at all ...
If the prime minister has to start removing secretaries of state because they are not focusing on their job, they are focusing on their own personal ambitions, so be it, and she will have the support of the 1922 committee.
He said that the 1922’s executive committee had met May last week and that it had “unanimously made it clear to her, that if she had to remove secretaries of state, then she would have our support”.
He also said most Tory MPs took the same view.
There are a few outliers, but the vast majority of members of parliament wish to see Theresa May continue as prime minister and get on with the job and are hoping that secretaries of state who have important jobs to do focus on their jobs, and not talking to you journalists.
Most backbenchers recognise that Jeremy Corbyn poses an enormous risk to this country. So backbenchers in the national interest want to ensure that there’s a stable Conservative govenrment going forward. And that government is best led by the prime minister, Theresa May.
Asked about Michael Heseltine, who this morning said May’s appeal for party unity would fail (see 11.36am), Walker said:
It would be nice if Michael Heseltine shut up as well.
- Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has suggested that he wants to build a cross-party alliance for a softer Brexit. (See 12.03pm.)
- Senior military officers, judges and Whitehall mandarins are to receive 1% pay rises this year, the government has confirmed. (See 10.55am.)
- Labour has said that the government’s plans for free childcare are “riddled with holes”. As the Press Association reports, extending free childcare provision was a key part of the Tory election manifesto, offering all parents 30 hours a week of free childcare for three- and four-year-olds from September. During a Commons urgent question shadow education minister Tracy Brabin said many people had had problems with the online application system. She said:
What a shame it is that, when we could be weeks away from a great breakthrough for providers, parents, and most importantly children, we are instead discussing a policy that is riddled with holes and, my word, are there questions to answer.
Robert Goodwill, the education minister, said that there had been “glitches in the software” but that they had been “ironed out”.
Updated
As we report today, David Davis, the Brexit secretary, spent less than an hour yesterday at the Brexit talks in Brussels. After a preliminary chat with Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Davis left Brussels, leaving officials to get on with the detailed work.
At its regular briefing this morning, the European commission said this wasn’t a problem. Asked if Davis gave the impression he was not taking the talks seriously, Margaritis Schinas, the commission spokesman, said:
We do not consider this as a problem and we’re not concerned about it. Chief negotiators do not have to be present all the time, these are well-structured talks over a week, so work is ongoing and we do not feel concerned about this.
Here is the start of the Press Association story about Theresa May reprimanding her cabinet ministers over leaks and hostile briefings.
Theresa May urged senior ministers to show “unity” around the cabinet table as she told them to keep details of their discussions private.
Following a weekend of vicious briefings against chancellor Philip Hammond, the prime minister told cabinet that some members of the government had failed to take their responsibilities seriously.
She told the weekly meeting at 10 Downing Street that she had tried to encourage open discussion of policy within cabinet, but it was vital for the government that this remained private, her official spokesman told reporters.
The prime minister said: “There is a need to show strength and unity as a country and that starts around the cabinet table.”
May tells cabinet that briefings show some of them 'not taking responsibilities seriously'
Theresa May told cabinet ministers this morning that some of them were “not taking their responsibilities seriously” because they were engaging in leaking and hostile briefings. This is from my colleague Rowena Mason, who has been at the Number 10 briefing.
PM upbraided cabinet for not taking their responsibilities seriously with briefings and counter briefings over weekend
— Rowena Mason (@rowenamason) July 18, 2017
And this is from HuffPost’s Paul Waugh.
No10: PM told Cabinet their leaks + "briefings + counter briefings" showed some of them were "not taking their responsibilities seriously"
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) July 18, 2017
Updated
In her first question at Treasury questions as the new chair of the Commons Treasury committee, the Conservative pro-European MP Nicky Morgan said last week’s Office of Budget Responsibility report said the government would have to manage the uncertainties caused by Brexit. She went on:
Is it not the case that a responsible government should not make uncertainties and risks even worse by the decisions that they take?
Philip Hammond, the chancellor, said that Morgan was “exactly right”.
Hammond suggests he wants to build cross-party alliance for softer Brexit
Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is taking questions in the Commons. The Labour MP Chris Leslie, who is one of leading figures pushing for a “soft” Brexit, asked if it was true that Hammond was pushing for a longer transitional period that would keep the UK in the single market for a period after Brexit. If so, that was “welcome news”, Leslie said. He also said that this approach “might be able to secure a lot of support on all sides of the House”.
Hammond said he welcomed what Leslie said, and he went on:
In an issue as important to our nation’s future as our exit from the European Union, I welcome any opportunity to build consensus across the House and across the nation.
WATCH: @ChrisLeslieMP warn that a hard Brexit is the biggest threat to our economy, as warned by the OBR just last week. Please RT: pic.twitter.com/ahvu0ZpLxV
— Open Britain (@Open_Britain) July 18, 2017
The Scottish government has announced that it is going to require public bodies to put reducing poverty and inequality at the centre of decision making. The last Labour government included this requirement (championed by Harriet Harman) in its Equality Act, which was passed just before the 2010 general election. But the coalition government never implemented this aspect of the legislation. The Scottish government is doing so using new powers it got in the Scotland Act last year.
Announcing the plan, Angela Constance, the equalities secretary in the Scottish government said:
Public bodies already do a huge amount to reduce inequalities, but with more than one in four children in poverty, we must all work together to do more and make a difference. The duty will further embed this into the DNA of public sector decision-making – including that of Scottish ministers. It is not only the right thing to do, it is the smart thing to do.
Heseltine says May's appeal for party unity will fail
Lord Heseltine, the Conservative former deputy prime minister and a leading pro-European, told Sky’s All Out Politics this morning that Theresa May’s appeals for party unity would not have any impact. Here are the main points from his interview.
- Heseltine said May’s appeal for Tory unity would fail. Asked if it would work, he replied:
It won’t have any effect ... I know why they are doing it [cabinet ministers briefing against each other] ... They are jockeying for [Theresa May’s] position. There is no serious body of thought which says that Theresa May is going to lead the Conservatives into the next general election. There is no serious support for that position. So, that means there’s a vacancy. They don’t know when the vacancy, but the players - either directly themselves or, more likely, through their acolytes, are out their canvassing.
He also said party divisions would get worse.
It is going to get worse. There is an irreconcilable division within the cabinet, within the party and within the country. And there is nothing you can do but face up to that. It is damaging, yes. It could help Mr Corbyn into Number 10, yes. But that is the nature of the divisiveness of the disastrous Brexit decision.
- He said he thought there was a “remote” chance of Brexit being reversed. He suggested this could happen if Labour changed its stance. Asked if Brexit could be reversed, he said: “There is a chance, but a remote one.” He went on:
What I see happening now is a general election in 18 months, two years’ time. The Labour party, at the moment, appear to be supporting Brexit. But if as I think events over the next 18 month erode the Brexit support, because they will just one after the other reveal how bad Brexit is, and how undermining of British self interest it is, if that changes public opinion, then my guess is, surprise, surprise, it will change the Labour party’s position.
- He suggested the EU might offer the UK a new deal on freedom of movement. He said:
I think there could be a window - not yet, not certainly this side of the German election - in which freedom of movement as a principle could be accepted but with limits at the rate of which it is implemented. That is not a new idea. That is exactly what happens when new countries join the European Union. If the economies are out of balance, it could be argued that you should have a cap on the rate of it.
Judges, senior civil servants and senior military officers to get 1% pay increase
The Cabinet Office has published a written ministerial statement from Damian Green, the first secretary of state, covering pay for judges, senior civil servants and quango executives and senior military officers. They are all getting a 1% increase, as the senior salaries review body recommends.
Green says in the statement:
The government greatly values the important work that public servants do in delivering essential public services. We understand the need to ensure that we are able to recruit, retain and motivate staff with the right skills and experience. However, there is a trade-off between pay and jobs in many public services, and pay restraint is one of the many difficult choices the government has had to make to help put the UK’s public finances back on track. Senior public sector workers, like everyone else, will have to continue to play their part to ensure we deliver job security for working people across the country.
Reader request: As regular readers know, I try to make a point of reading comments BTL, and so I have a reasonable idea of what people think about the blog. But I also find it helpful from time to time to ask directly so that I can think about possible changes. So, with that in mind, if you have time, it would be helpful if you could let me know BTL:
a) what you like about the blog
b) what you don’t like about it
c) what you think we should be including, or doing more of
d) what you think we should be excluding, or doing less of
Thanks in advance.
Leading Scottish politicians and academics call for Brexit to be halted
More than 60 Scottish politicians and other public figures have called for Brexit to be halted. In a letter in the Herald, which the paper says is “backed by a Who’s Who of Scotland’s intellectual elite”, they say “it is time to call a halt to Brexit” because its “disastrous consequences” are becoming clearer every day. They say:
We see our society, economy and politics becoming ever more undermined due to the impact of Brexit. We recognise that a narrow majority voted to leave the European Union, but the disastrous consequences are now becoming ever clearer - every day. Even before the UK has left the EU, we face falling living standards, rising inflation, slowing growth and lower productivity.
Our international reputation has been seriously damaged, leaving the UK weak, with diminished influence, in an increasingly uncertain and unstable world ...
In a democracy, it is always possible to think again and to choose a different direction. We need to think again about Brexit, to have a UK-wide debate about calling a halt to the process and changing our minds ...
We call for a national debate on Brexit. We ask our fellow citizens, and our politicians, to think again. It is time to call a halt to Brexit.
The signatories include: Labour former first minister Henry McLeish, ex-Liberal Democrat leader Menzies Campbell, SNP MEP Alyn Smith, former Tory MEP Struan Stevenson, former Labour defence secretary and ex-Nato secretary general George Robertson, Scotland’s former chief medical officer Sir Harry Burns, historians Sir Tom Devine and Chris Smout, and director of Friends of the Earth Scotland Dr Richard Dixon.
Speaking about the letter on Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland, McLeish said:
At the end of the day, I believe sincerely, as a passionate European, that this is a huge mistake, a national exercise in self-harm, a pointless distraction. I believe that view is shared by many of my colleagues but we now have to find a way of putting that into the public arena, having a much bigger, better debate, and as that happens I believe that the Tory party will continue to be a shambles and of course these negotiations will go nowhere. This is about the future of Britain, this is a new battle for the future of Britain.
The crosstabs from today’s Guardian/ICM poll (see 9.24am) show that Scotland (50%) is the place in Britain where people are most likely to feel despair at the prospect of the UK leaving the EU. The GB average is 38%. Scotland is also the place where people are least likely to feel joy at the prospect of Brexit. It makes only 26% of Scots feel joyous, compared to the GB average of 41%.
Amber Rudd, the home secretary, has said that Conservative ministers should “get on with the job in hand” instead of engaging in briefing against colleagues, my colleague Kevin Rawlinson reports.
The department of health has announced plans to cut smoking rates from 15.5% at present to 12% or under by 2022, as part of its long-awaited tobacco control plan. The plan is available here. Steve Brine, the health minister, has announced the plan in a written ministerial statement.
Labour has 1-point lead over Conservatives, poll suggests
As mentioned earlier, the latest Guardian/ICM poll also included the usual state of the parties question and it suggests Labour maintains a lead over the Conservatives. Here are the figures.
Labour: 43% (no change from Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)
Conservatives: 42% (up 1)
Lib Dems: 7% (no change)
Ukip: 3% (no change)
Greens: 2% (down 1)
Labour lead: 1 point (down 1)
As I explained two weeks ago, ICM has abandoned the turnout and political interest weighting it was using for its polls before the 2017 general election because these led to the Labour vote being seriously underestimated. ICM is now using the weighting methodology it was using before the 2015 election.
ICM Unlimited interviewed 2,046 adults aged 18+ online on 14 to 16 July 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Inflation falls to 2.6%
The inflation figures are out. Here are the headline figures.
-
Consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell to 2.6% in June, from 2.9% in May.
My colleague Graeme Wearden has more details on his business live blog.
Third of voters back second referendum on Brexit, poll suggests
My colleague Polly Toynbee has written a column today saying a second referendum on Brexit would be a mistake. “Never try another referendum,” she writes. “Haven’t we learned that lesson the hard way? A crude question divides a nation, driven by emotions not on the ballot paper, paralysing politics for years to come.”
By coincidence, her column coincides with new Guardian/ICM polling designed to find out if the public agree. And at the moment they do; supporting a second referendum is still a niche proposition. But, interestingly, it is becoming more popular. And the poll also shows that there is some evidence - not a huge amount, but some - that concerns about Brexit are growing.
Here are the figures.
ICM told respondents that the Brexit talks were taking place and asked which of three options they would prefer to see. The results were:
The UK leaving the EU regardless of what happens: 46% (down 7 from ICM in January)
MPs to decide whether or not the UK leaves: 11% (down 1)
A second referendum to allow people to decide whether the UK leaves or not, based on the outcome of the negotiations: 32% (up 6)
- A third of voters back a second referendum on Brexit, a poll suggests. That represents a six-point increase since the same question was asked six months ago.
ICM also asked whether people thought Brexit would have a positive or negative impact on the British economy, their personal finances, and life in Britain generally. Here are the results, and how they compare with the results when the same question was asked five months ago).
Impact on the British economy
Positive: 29%
Negative: 42%
No difference: 15%
Net: -13% (down 8 from ICM in February)
Impact on your personal finances
Positive: 12%
Negative: 32%
No difference: 40%
Net: -20 (up 2)
Impact on life in Britain generally
Positive: 33%
Negative: 34%
No difference: 19%
Net: -1 (down 6)
- Voters have become more negative in their assessment of how they think Brexit will affect the economy and life in Britain generally over the last five months.
But, despite this, there is still support for Brexit. Asked which they were more likely to feel when Britain left the EU, people replied:
Joy: 41%
Despair: 38%
Amongst those most likely to feel joy are Ukip supporters (85%), Conservative supporters (62%) and the over-65s (54%).
Amongst those most likely to feel despair are Lib Dem supporters (67%), Labour supporters (56%), people with higher degrees (51%) and 18 to 24-year-olds (49%).
- More people say they feel joy at the prospect of the UK leaving the EU (41%) than feel despair (38%).
We also asked a state of the parties question in the poll. I will post those results soon.
ICM Unlimited interviewed 2,046 adults aged 18+ online on 14 to 16 July 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9am: The cabinet meets.
9.30am: Inflation figures for June are published.
11.30am: Philip Hammond, the chancellor, takes questions in the Commons.
12pm: Theresa May meets her Estonian counterpart, Juri Ratas, in Downing Street.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to publish a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.
You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. Alternatively you could post a question to me on Twitter.
Updated
